Stephen Yeager

The low resolution CCSM3

The low-resolution fully coupled configuration of the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) is described and evaluated. In this most economical configuration, an ocean at nominal 3° resolution is coupled to an atmosphere model at T31 resolution. There are climate biases associated with the relatively coarse grids, yet the coupled solution remains comparable to higher-resolution CCSM3 results. There are marked improvements in the new solution compared to the low-resolution configuration of CCSM2. In particular, the CCSM3 simulation maintains a robust meridional overturning circulation in the ocean, and it generates more realistic El Nino variability. The improved ocean solution was achieved with no increase in computational cost by redistributing deep ocean and midlatitude resolution into the upper ocean and the key water formation regions of the North Atlantic, respectively. Given its significantly lower resource demands compared to higher resolutions, this configuration shows promise for studies of paleoclimate and other applications requiring long, equilibrated solutions.

The CCSM4 Ocean Component

AbstractThe ocean component of the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) is described, and its solutions from the twentieth-century (20C) simulations are documented in comparison with observations and those of CCSM3. The improvements to the ocean model physical processes include new parameterizations to represent previously missing physics and modifications of existing parameterizations to incorporate recent new developments. In comparison with CCSM3, the new solutions show some significant improvements that can be attributed to these model changes. These include a better equatorial current structure, a sharper thermocline, and elimination of the cold bias of the equatorial cold tongue all in the Pacific Ocean; reduced sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity biases along the North Atlantic Current path; and much smaller potential temperature and salinity biases in the near-surface Pacific Ocean. Other improvements include a global-mean SST that is more consistent with the present-day observa...

Decadal climate prediction: An update from the trenches

This paper provides an update on research in the relatively new and fast-moving field of decadal climate prediction, and addresses the use of decadal climate predictions not only for potential users of such information but also for improving our understanding of processes in the climate system. External forcing influences the predictions throughout, but their contributions to predictive skill become dominant after most of the improved skill from initialization with observations vanishes after about 6–9 years. Recent multimodel results suggest that there is relatively more decadal predictive skill in the North Atlantic, western Pacific, and Indian Oceans than in other regions of the world oceans. Aspects of decadal variability of SSTs, like the mid-1970s shift in the Pacific, the mid-1990s shift in the northern North Atlantic and western Pacific, and the early-2000s hiatus, are better represented in initialized hindcasts compared to uninitialized simulations. There is evidence of higher skill in initialize...

A Decadal Prediction Case Study: Late Twentieth-Century North Atlantic Ocean Heat Content

An ensemble of initialized decadal prediction (DP) experiments using the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) shows considerable skill at forecasting changes in North Atlantic upper-ocean heat content and surface temperature up to a decade in advance. Coupled model ensembles were integrated forward from each of 10 different start dates spanning from 1961 to 2006 with ocean and sea ice initial conditions obtained from a forced historical experiment, a Coordinated Ocean-Ice Reference Experiment with Interannual forcing (CORE-IA), which exhibits good correspondence with late twentieth-century ocean observations from the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) region. North Atlantic heat content anomalies from the DP ensemble correlate highly with those from the CORE-IA simulation after correcting for a drift bias.In particular, theobservedlarge,rapid rise in SPGheatcontentin themid-1990sis successfullypredicted in the ensemble initialized in January of 1991. A budget of SPG heat content from the CORE-IA experiment sheds light on the origins of the 1990s regime shift, and it demonstrates the extent to which low-frequency changes in ocean heat advection related to the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation dominate temperature tendencies in this region. Similar budgets from the DP ensembles reveal varying degrees of predictive skill in the individual heat budget terms, with large advective heat flux anomalies from the south exhibiting the highest correlation with CORE-IA. The skill of the DP in this region is thus tied to correct initialization of ocean circulation anomalies, while external forcing is found to contribute negligibly (and for incorrect reasons) to predictive skill in this region over this time period.

Simulation of the Global Hydrological Cycle in the CCSM Community Atmosphere Model Version 3 (CAM3): Mean Features

The seasonal and annual climatological behavior of selected components of the hydrological cycle are presented from coupled and uncoupled configurations of the atmospheric component of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) Community Atmosphere Model version 3 (CAM3). The formulations of processes that play a role in the hydrological cycle are significantly more complex when compared with earlier versions of the atmospheric model. Major features of the simulated hydrological cycle are compared against available observational data, and the strengths and weaknesses are discussed in the context of specified sea surface temperature and fully coupled model simulations. The magnitude of the CAM3 hydrological cycle is weaker than in earlier versions of the model, and is more consistent with observational estimates. Major features of the exchange of water with the surface, and the vertically integrated storage of water in the atmosphere, are generally well captured on seasonal and longer time scales. The water cycle response to ENSO events is also very realistic. The simulation, however, continues to exhibit a number of long-standing biases, such as a tendency to produce double ITCZ-like structures in the deep Tropics, and to overestimate precipitation rates poleward of the extratropical storm tracks. The lower-tropospheric dry bias, associated with the parameterized treatment of convection, also remains a simulation deficiency. Several of these biases are exacerbated when the atmosphere is coupled to fully interactive surface models, although the larger-scale behavior of the hydrological cycle remains nearly identical to simulations with prescribed distributions of sea surface temperature and sea ice.

Mechanisms Governing Interannual Variability of Upper-Ocean Temperature in a Global Ocean Hindcast Simulation

Abstract The interannual variability in upper-ocean (0–400 m) temperature and governing mechanisms for the period 1968–97 are quantified from a global ocean hindcast simulation driven by atmospheric reanalysis and satellite data products. The unconstrained simulation exhibits considerable skill in replicating the observed interannual variability in vertically integrated heat content estimated from hydrographic data and monthly satellite sea surface temperature and sea surface height data. Globally, the most significant interannual variability modes arise from El Nino–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean zonal mode, with substantial extension beyond the Tropics into the midlatitudes. In the well-stratified Tropics and subtropics, net annual heat storage variability is driven predominately by the convergence of the advective heat transport, mostly reflecting velocity anomalies times the mean temperature field. Vertical velocity variability is caused by remote wind forcing, and subsurface temperature an...

Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in CCSM4

AbstractAtlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) variability is documented in the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) preindustrial control simulation that uses nominal 1° horizontal resolution in all its components. AMOC shows a broad spectrum of low-frequency variability covering the 50–200-yr range, contrasting sharply with the multidecadal variability seen in the T85 × 1 resolution CCSM3 present-day control simulation. Furthermore, the amplitude of variability is much reduced in CCSM4 compared to that of CCSM3. Similarities as well as differences in AMOC variability mechanisms between CCSM3 and CCSM4 are discussed. As in CCSM3, the CCSM4 AMOC variability is primarily driven by the positive density anomalies at the Labrador Sea (LS) deep-water formation site, peaking 2 yr prior to an AMOC maximum. All processes, including parameterized mesoscale and submesoscale eddies, play a role in the creation of salinity anomalies that dominate these density anomalies. High Nordic Sea densi...

Late-Winter Generation of Spiciness on Subducted Isopycnals

The origins of density-compensating anomalies of temperature and salinity (spice) are investigated using a model forced with the most realistic surface products available over the 40 years 1958‐97. In this hindcast, the largest interannual spiciness anomalies are found in the Pacific Ocean near the isopycnal s 0 5 25.5, where deviations as great as 1.28C and 0.6 psu are generated equatorward of winter outcropping in the eastern subtropics in both hemispheres. These source regions are characterized by very unstable salinity gradients and low mean density stratification in winter. Two related signatures of winter mixing in the southeast Pacific (SEP) are density that is well mixed deeper than either temperature or salinity and subsurface density ratios that approach 1. All ocean basins in the model are shown to have regions with these characteristics and signatures; however, the resultant spiciness signals are focused on different isopycnals ranging from s 0 5 25.0 in the northeast Pacific to s 0 5 26.5 in the south Indian Ocean. A detailed examination of the SEP finds that large positive anomalies are generated by diapycnal mixing across subducted isopycnals (e.g., s 0 5 25.5), whereas negative anomalies are the result of a steady isopycnal advection, moderated by vertical advection and heave. There is considerable interannual variability in the strength of anomalies and in the density on which they occur. Historical observations are consistent with the model results but are insufficient to verify all aspects of the hindcast, including the processes of anomaly generation in the SEP. It was not possible to relate isopycnal anomaly genesis to local surface forcing of any kind. A complex scenario involving basinwide circulation of both the ocean and atmosphere, especially of surface water through the subtropical evaporation zones, is put forward to explain the decadal time scale evident in SEP salinity anomalies on s 0 5 25.5. Pacific anomalies generated on s 0 5 25.5 can be traced along mean geostrophic streamlines to the western boundary, where decadal salinity variations at 78S are about 2 times as large (order 60.1 psu) as at 128N, although there may be more variance on shallower isopycnals in the north. At least portions of the s 0 5 25.5 signals appear to continue along the boundary to a convergence at the equator, suggesting that the most robust sources of Pacific spiciness variance coincide with equatorial exchange pathways.

The Origins of Late-Twentieth-Century Variations in the Large-Scale North Atlantic Circulation

AbstractSurface forcing perturbation experiments are examined to identify the key forcing elements associated with late-twentieth-century interannual-to-decadal Atlantic circulation variability as simulated in an ocean–sea ice hindcast configuration of the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1). Buoyancy forcing accounts for most of the decadal variability in both the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the subpolar gyre circulation, and the key drivers of these basin-scale circulation changes are found to be the turbulent buoyancy fluxes: evaporation as well as the latent and sensible heat fluxes. These three fluxes account for almost all of the decadal AMOC variability in the North Atlantic, even when applied only over the Labrador Sea region. Year-to-year changes in surface momentum forcing explain most of the interannual AMOC variability at all latitudes as well as most of the decadal variability south of the equator. The observed strengthening of Southern Ocean westerly wi...

Observational Evidence of Winter Spice Injection

Abstract Temperature and salinity (T–S) profiles from the global array of Argo floats support the existence of spice-formation regions in the subtropics of each ocean basin where large, destabilizing vertical salinity gradients coincide with weak stratification in winter. In these characteristic regions, convective boundary layer mixing generates a strongly density-compensated (SDC) layer at the base of the well-mixed layer. The degree of density compensation of the T–S gradients of an upper-ocean water column is quantified using a bulk vertical Turner angle (Tub) between the surface and upper pycnocline. The winter generation of the SDC layer in spice-formation zones is clearly seen in Argo data as a large-amplitude seasonal cycle of Tub in regions of the subtropical oceans characterized by high mean Tub. In formation regions, Argo floats provide ample evidence of large, abrupt spice injection (T–S increase on subducted isopycnals due to vertical mixing) associated with the winter increase in Tub. A simp...