Steven E. Lohrenz

Increasing Mississippi river discharge throughout the 21st century influenced by changes in climate, land use, and atmospheric CO2

Previous studies have demonstrated that changes in temperature and precipitation (hereafter climate change) would influence river discharge, but the relative importance of climate change, land use, and elevated atmospheric CO2 have not yet been fully investigated. A process-based projection for the Mississippi River basin suggests that river discharge would be substantially enhanced (10.7–59.8%) by the 2090s compared to the recent decade (2000s), although large discrepancies exist among different climate, atmospheric CO2, and land use change scenarios. Our factorial analyses further indicate that the combined effects of land use change and human-induced atmospheric CO2 elevation on river discharge would outweigh climate change effect under the high-emission scenario (A2) of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change, while climate change would still play the dominant role under the low-emission scenario (B1). This study highlights the important role of anthropogenic factors in influencing future hydrological processes and water resources.

Large increase in dissolved inorganic carbon flux from the Mississippi River to Gulf of Mexico due to climatic and anthropogenic changes over the 21st century

Abstract It is recognized that anthropogenic factors have had a major impact on carbon fluxes from land to the ocean during the past two centuries. However, little is known about how future changes in climate, atmospheric CO2, and land use may affect riverine carbon fluxes over the 21st century. Using a coupled hydrological‐biogeochemical model, the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, this study examines potential changes in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) export from the Mississippi River basin to the Gulf of Mexico during 2010–2099 attributable to climate‐related conditions (temperature and precipitation), atmospheric CO2, and land use change. Rates of annual DIC export are projected to increase by 65% under the high emission scenario (A2) and 35% under the low emission scenario (B1) between the 2000s and the 2090s. Climate‐related changes along with rising atmospheric CO2 together would account for over 90% of the total increase in DIC export throughout the 21st century. The predicted increase in DIC export from the Mississippi River basin would alter chemistry of the coastal ocean unless appropriate climate mitigation actions are taken in the near future.

Climate extremes dominating seasonal and interannual variations in carbon export from the Mississippi River Basin

Knowledge about the annual and seasonal patterns of organic and inorganic carbon (C) exports from the major rivers of the world to the coastal ocean is essential for our understanding and potential management of the global C budget so as to limit anthropogenic modification of global climate. Unfortunately our predictive understanding of what controls the timing, magnitude, and quality of C export is still rudimentary. Here we use a process-based coupled hydrologic/ecosystem biogeochemistry model (the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model) to examine how climate variability and extreme events, changing land use, and atmospheric chemistry have affected the annual and seasonal patterns of C exports from the Mississippi River basin to the Gulf of Mexico. Our process-based simulations estimate that the average annual exports of dissolved organic C (DOC), particulate organic C (POC), and dissolved inorganic C (DIC) in the 2000s were 2.6 ± 0.4 Tg C yr−1, 3.4 ± 0.3 Tg C yr−1, and 18.8 ± 3.4 Tg C yr−1, respectively. Although land use change was the most important agent of change in C export over the past century, climate variability and extreme events (such as flooding and drought) were primarily responsible for seasonal and interannual variations in C export from the basin. The maximum seasonal export of DIC occurred in summer while for DOC and POC the maximum occurred in winter. Relative to the 10 year average (2001–2010), our modeling analysis indicates that the years of maximal and minimal C export cooccurred with wet and dry years (2008: 32% above average and 2006: 32% below average). Given Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-predicted changes in climate variability and the severity of rain events and droughts of wet and dry years for the remainder of the 21st century, our modeling results suggest major changes in the riverine link between the terrestrial and oceanic realms, which are likely to have a major impact on C delivery to the coastal ocean.

Century‐long increasing trend and variability of dissolved organic carbon export from the Mississippi River basin driven by natural and anthropogenic forcing

There has been considerable debate as to how natural forcing and anthropogenic activities alter the timing and magnitude of the delivery of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to the coastal ocean, which has ramifications for the ocean carbon budget, land-ocean interactions, and coastal life. Here we present an analysis of DOC export from the Mississippi River to the Gulf of Mexico during 1901–2010 as influenced by changes in climate, land use and management practices, atmospheric CO2, and nitrogen deposition, through the integration of observational data with a coupled hydrologic/biogeochemical land model. Model simulations show that DOC export in the 2000s increased more than 40% since the 1900s. For the recent three decades (1981–2010), however, our simulated DOC export did not show a significant increasing trend, which is consistent with observations by U.S. Geological Survey. Our factorial analyses suggest that land use and land cover change, including land management practices (LMPs: i.e., fertilization, irrigation, tillage, etc.), were the dominant contributors to the century-scale trend of rising total riverine DOC export, followed by changes in atmospheric CO2, nitrogen deposition, and climate. Decadal and interannual variations of DOC export were largely attributed to year-to-year climatic variability and extreme flooding events, which have been exacerbated by human activity. LMPs show incremental contributions to DOC increase since the 1960s, indicating the importance of sustainable agricultural practices in coping with future environmental changes such as extreme flooding events. Compared to the observational-based estimate, the modeled DOC export was 20% higher, while DOC concentrations were slightly lower. Further refinements in model structure and input data sets should enable reductions in uncertainties in our prediction of century-long trends in DOC.

Temporal variation and stoichiometric ratios of organic matter remineralization in bottom waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico during late spring and summer

An improved extended optimum multiparameter (eOMP) analysis was applied to hydrographic (temperature and salinity), and water chemistry data, including dissolved oxygen (O2), nutrients (nitrate plus nitrite, phosphate, and silicate), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), and total alkalinity (TAlk) data collected during late spring and summer from 2006 to 2012 in bottom waters off the Louisiana coast, to explore the dynamics and stoichiometry of DIC production during the development and maintenance of summer hypoxia. Our analysis demonstrated that DIC in bottom water was relatively low from April to June, but increased significantly in July, peaked in August, and dropped slightly in September. Furthermore, DIC production resulted from both aerobic organic carbon (OC) respiration and denitrification, as well as substantial loss due to vertical mixing with surface water. The average summer gross OC respiration rate was estimated to be 0.19 g C m−2 d−1, with the highest values occurring in late summer when hypoxic conditions dominated. We also found that Corg/N/P/-O2 remineralization ratios for aerobic respiration were generally consistent with the classic Redfield ratio (106/16/1/138) except individual C/N and C/P ratios were slightly lower, indicating that marine OC was the major source of the DIC production in the bottom water. This study quantified the role of temporal bottom-water microbial respiration to seasonal DIC dynamics and provided a means for studying the stoichiometry of biogeochemical processes in coastal waters.