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Dive into the research topics where Stewart E. Tolnay is active.

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Featured researches published by Stewart E. Tolnay.


Journal of Quantitative Criminology | 1999

The Spatial Patterning of County Homicide Rates: An Application of Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis

Steven F. Messner; Luc Anselin; Robert D. Baller; Darnell F. Hawkins; Glenn Deane; Stewart E. Tolnay

The possibility that homicides can spread from one geographic area toanother has been entertained for some time by social scientists, yetsystematic efforts to demonstrate the existence, or estimate the strength,of such a diffusion process are just beginning. This paper uses exploratoryspatial data analysis (ESDA) to examine the distribution of homicides in 78counties in, or around, the St. Louis metropolitan area for two timeperiods: a period of relatively stable homicide (1984–1988) and aperiod of generally increasing homicide (1988–1993). The findingsreveal that homicides are distributed nonrandomly, suggestive of positivespatial autocorrelation. Moreover, changes over time in the distribution ofhomicides suggest the possible diffusion of lethal violence out of onecounty containing a medium-sized city (Macon County) into two nearbycounties (Morgan and Sangamon Counties) located to the west. Althoughtraditional correlates of homicide do not account for its nonrandom spatialdistribution across counties, we find some evidence that more affluentareas, or those more rural or agricultural areas, serve as barriers againstthe diffusion of homicides. The patterns of spatial distribution revealedthrough ESDA provide an empirical foundation for the specification ofmultivariate models which can provide formal tests for diffusion processes.


American Sociological Review | 1992

Racial violence and black migration in the American south 1910 to 1930.

Stewart E. Tolnay; E. M. Beck

We test a model of reciprocal causation between racial violence and black net out-migration from southern [U.S.] counties during the era of the Great Migration. Using county-level data for ten southern states including a new inventory of southern lynchings we find support for the model during two decades 1910-1920 and 1920-1930. Out-migration of blacks was heaviest from counties where more lynchings had occurred and in turn counties that witnessed relatively more out-migration of blacks experienced fewer lynchings of blacks. We conclude that mob violence was an important social force driving blacks from certain areas of the South. (EXCERPT)


American Sociological Review | 2011

Neighborhood Immigration and Native Out-Migration

Kyle Crowder; Matthew Hall; Stewart E. Tolnay

This study combines data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics with data from four censuses to examine the effects of foreign-born populations in the immediate and surrounding neighborhoods of residence on native-born black and white householders’ residential mobility decisions. We find that the likelihood of out-mobility for native householders is significantly and positively associated with the relative size of, and increases in, the immigrant population in a neighborhood. Consistent with theoretical arguments related to the distance dependence of mobility, large concentrations of immigrants in surrounding areas reduce native out-mobility, presumably by reducing the attractiveness of the most likely mobility destinations. A sizable share of local immigration effects can be explained by the mobility-related characteristics of native-born individuals living in immigrant-populated areas, but the racial composition of a neighborhood (for native whites) and local housing-market conditions (for native blacks) are also important mediating factors. We discuss the implications of these patterns for processes of neighborhood change and broader patterns of residential segregation.


American Sociological Review | 2010

Moving Out but Not Up Economic Outcomes in the Great Migration

Suzanne C. Eichenlaub; Stewart E. Tolnay; J. Trent Alexander

The migration of millions of southerners out of the South between 1910 and 1970 is largely attributed to economic and social push factors in the South, combined with pull factors in other regions of the country. Researchers generally find that participants in this migration were positively selected from their region of origin, in terms of educational attainment and urban status, and that they fared relatively well in their destinations. To fully measure the migrants’ success, however, a comparison with those who remained in the South is necessary. This article uses data from the U.S. Census to compare migrants who left the South with their southern contemporaries who stayed behind, both those who moved within the South and the sedentary population. The findings indicate that migrants who left the South did not benefit appreciably in terms of employment status, income, or occupational status. In fact, inter-regional migrants often fared worse than did southerners who moved within the South or those who remained sedentary. These results contradict conventional wisdom regarding the benefits of exiting the South and suggest the need for a revisionist interpretation of the experiences of those who left.


American Sociological Review | 1991

GROUP DIFFERENCES IN ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY AND THE TIMING OF MARRIAGE: BLACKS AND WHITES IN THE RURAL SOUTH, 1910*

Nancy S. Landale; Stewart E. Tolnay

A central thesis in studies of nuptiality is that marriage behavior is strongly influenced by economic conditions because they affect the ease with which independent households can be established by young couples. We contend that a societys stratification system should be included in this general framework. Because access to economic opportunities is typically distributed unevenly in society, economic conditions will not affect the marriage behavior of all groups in the same way. An examination of the timing of marriage among white and black residents of the rural South in 1910 strongly supports our hypotheses. Whites delayed marriage in areas where farmland was expensive and manufacturing employment was available. Farm tenancy clearly facilitated early marriage among blacks, while the price of land and availability of manufacturing opportunities had no effect on the timing of marriage. These findings are interpreted in light of the class and caste distinctions characteristic of the Southern stratification system in the early twentieth century. The central tenets of the opportunity thesis of nuptiality are supported, but we emphasize a need to move beyond consideration of the simple availability of economic opportunities to recognize the additional role of their distribution within society.


Sociological Spectrum | 2000

HOMEWARD BOUND: THE RETURN MIGRATION OF SOUTHERN-BORN BLACK WOMEN, 1940 TO 1990

Robert M. Adelman; Chris Morett; Stewart E. Tolnay

A major demographic trend of the twentieth century has been the dramatic decrease in the percentage of African Americans residing in the South. The Great Migration reduced the percentage of Blacks living in the South from 90 percent at the turn of the century to 53 percent in 1990. However, since at least 1940 there has been a measurable North to - South counterstream of migrants , and since about 1970 there has been net in - migration of Blacks to the South . This in - migration includes northern - born Blacks, as well as former migrants returning to the South. Prior research on the Great Migration, and its more recent reversal, has tended to overlook the experiences of Black women. In this study, we use the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series to describe the return migration patterns of southern - born Black women in 1940, 1970, 1980, and 1990. Our analysis has four primary objectives: (a) to provide a broad overview of trends in return migration to the South for Black women during the last 60 years of the twentieth century, (b) to determine the selectivity of female return migrants from the larger population of southern migrants residing in the North, (c) to compare female return migrants with southern - born women who had remained in the South, and (d) to help set an agenda for future research on female return migration. Although the focus throughout the article is on the return migration of African American women, parallel information is presented for Whites to provide a comparative perspective.A major demographic trend of the twentieth century has been the dramatic decrease in the percentage of African Americans residing in the South. The Great Migration reduced the percentage of Blacks living in the South from 90 percent at the turn of the century to 53 percent in 1990. However, since at least 1940 there has been a measurable North to - South counterstream of migrants , and since about 1970 there has been net in - migration of Blacks to the South . This in - migration includes northern - born Blacks, as well as former migrants returning to the South. Prior research on the Great Migration, and its more recent reversal, has tended to overlook the experiences of Black women. In this study, we use the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series to describe the return migration patterns of southern - born Black women in 1940, 1970, 1980, and 1990. Our analysis has four primary objectives: (a) to provide a broad overview of trends in return migration to the South for Black women during the last 60 years ...


American Sociological Review | 2002

Race, regional origin, and residence in northern cities at the beginning of the great migration

Stewart E. Tolnay; Kyle Crowder; Robert M. Adelman

Southern blacks and whites began moving to northern and western cities in large numbers during the second decade of the twentieth century. City-level and ward-level data for 103 northern and western cities are used, along with the 1920 Public Use Microdata Sample, to investigate variation in neighborhood characteristics by race and migration history in 1920. The results of multi-level analyses reveal sharp differences between blacks and whites in the racial composition and quality of residential neighborhoods, even after controlling for a variety of sociodemographic characteristics. Regional origin also affects neighborhood outcomes, primarily because of the racial differences in the urban locations of southern migrants. Black migrants experienced a relative residential disadvantage because of their greater concentration in cities that constrained their residential opportunities. In contrast, white migrants selected destinations that enhanced their locational attainment. These findings highlight the importance of the larger social and economic context in the structuring of group differences in residential outcomes and point to the need for additional research into the selection of destinations by the participants in the Great Migration.


Journal of Family History | 1982

Childlessness in a Transitional Population: the United States At the Turn of the Century

Stewart E. Tolnay; Avery M. Guest

Most analyses of white childless ness in the United States before 1920 have perceived it as being primarily due to in voluntary factors, such as poor health and nutrition. This paper analyzes childless ness across various geographic areas at the turn of the century. It shows that the sub stantial variations in childlessness were due largely to voluntary choice on the part of many American women, particularly in the North Atlantic region. In other areas, such as the agricultural South, almost all childlessness was probably involuntary. On the whole, variations in childlessness seemed primarily to reflect the stage of these areas in the general transition to low fertility occurring in the United States. There is some evidence, however, that urban industrialism may have had an in dependent positive influence on the degree of childlessness.


Historical methods: A journal of quantitative and interdisciplinary history | 1982

Own-child estimates of U.S. white fertility, 1886–99

Stewart E. Tolnay; Stephen N. Graham; Avery M. Guest

Uses data from a 1/750 household sample of the 1900 census manuscripts to make own-child estimates of fertility behavior among American white women in the years between 1886 and 1899. Fertility behavior is estimated by linking childrens records with those of their mothers. New estimates of American total fertility rates for each year are provided separately for native and foreign-born whites. The degree of conscious control of fertility at this important period in American demographic history is estimated on the basis of age-specific patterns of reproduction. Variations in fertility patterns within major regional and urban-rural residence categories are analyzed, especially for the last 5 years of the century. Data on trends in fertility in the last 14 years of the century suggest the close correspondence between the fertility decline and the development of a mass educational system, particularly for native whites. Patterns for the foreign born during this time period are less easily interpretable within a modernization framework. Evidence on patterns of family limitation indicates the degree to which this period represented a transition from the minimal degree of conscious control over fertility at earlier points in the 19th century to the extremely rationalized system of reproduction which developed after 1940. The significant amount of fertility control at this time is not surprising, given other related studies, particularly since highly effective methods of birth control were probably not generally practiced. Abortion, however, may have been a very important means of family limitation. Patterns of reproduction in the late 1880s were highly varied within the United States. Native white women in the urban North Atlantic region had essentially achieved modern patterns of fertility limitation by the turn of the century, while Southern farm women were only a few steps removed from natural fertility. Important questions are raised concerning how populations with relatively similar cultural and ethnic heritages could achieve such different reproduction patterns. Charts and graphs illustrating birth rates, fertility rates and patterns are given.


American Sociological Review | 1999

Regional origin and family stability in northern cities : The role of context

Stewart E. Tolnay; Kyle Crowder

Contradicting earlier studies, some research suggests that families of black southern migrants to northern cities experienced more stability (e.g., children living with two parents) than did the families of their northern-born neighbors. Adequate explanations for this migrant advantage in family stability have remained elusive. We examine the effects of metropolitan-level distress on urban black family patterns and explore whether group differences in exposure to these contextual conditions can explain the greater stability of migrant families. A multilevel analysis of the living arrangements of 0- to 14-year-old children is conducted using 1970 data from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS) and the 1970 Summary Statistic File Fourth Count. Several metropolitan-level characteristics, including poverty, male underemployment, female headship, and welfare prevalence have significant effects on whether a child lives with two parents. Interestingly, the migrant advantage is not attenuated when these variables are controlled. Supplemental analyses show that migrants are not positively selected for family stability from the southern population, and that their family structures grow more similar to those of the northern-born as their length of residence outside of the South increases. We conclude that context does play a role in the migrant advantage in family stability, but that the advantage is likely to be the result of a northern disadvantage resulting from prolonged exposure to a social environment that destabilizes families.

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Kyle Crowder

University of Washington

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Avery M. Guest

University of Washington

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James L. Massey

Northern Illinois University

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Glenn Deane

State University of New York System

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Jennifer Laird

University of Washington

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