Susan O'Neill

A preliminary synthesis of modeled climate change impacts on U.S. regional ozone concentrations.

This paper provides a synthesis of results that have emerged from recent modeling studies of the potential sensitivity of U.S. regional ozone (O3) concentrations to global climate change (ca. 2050). This research has been carried out under the auspices of an ongoing U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) assessment effort to increase scientific understanding of the multiple complex interactions among climate, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, and air quality. The ultimate goal is to enhance the ability of air quality managers to consider global change in their decisions through improved characterization of the potential effects of global change on air quality, including O3 The results discussed here are interim, representing the first phase of the EPA assessment. The aim in this first phase was to consider the effects of climate change alone on air quality, without accompanying changes in anthropogenic emissions of precursor pollutants. Across all of the modeling experiments carried out by the differe...

Grassland and forest understorey biomass emissions from prescribed fires in the south-eastern United States – RxCADRE 2012

Smoke measurements were made during grass and forest understorey prescribed fires as part of a comprehensive programme to understand fire and smoke behaviour. Instruments deployed on the ground, airplane and tethered aerostat platforms characterised the smoke plumes through measurements of carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), methane (CH4) and particulate matter (PM), and measurements of optical properties. Distinctions were observed in aerial and ground-based measurements, with aerial measurements exhibiting smaller particle size distributions and PM emission factors, likely due to particle settling. Black carbon emission factors were similar for both burns and were highest during the initial flaming phase. On average, the particles from the forest fire were less light absorbing than those from the grass fires due to the longer duration of smouldering combustion in the forest biomass. CO and CH4 emission factors were over twice as high for the forest burn than for the grass burn, corresponding with a lower modified combustion efficiency and greater smouldering combustion. This dataset reveals the evolution of smoke emissions from two different commonly burned fuel types and demonstrates the complexity of emission factors.

Summary and analysis of approaches linking visual range, PM2.5 concentrations, and air quality health impact indices for wildfires

Several U.S. state and tribal agencies and other countries have implemented a methodology developed in the arid intermountain western U.S. where short-term (1- to 3-hr) particulate matter (PM) with aerodynamic diameters less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) concentrations are estimated from an observed visual range (VR) measurement. This PM2.5 concentration estimate is then linked to a public health warning scale to inform the public about potential health impacts from smoke from wildfire. This methodology is often used where monitoring data do not exist (such as many rural areas). This work summarizes the various approaches, highlights the potential for wildfire smoke impact messaging conflicts at state and international borders, and highlights the need to define consistent short-term health impact category breakpoint categories. Is air quality “unhealthy” when 1- to 3-hr PM2.5 is ≥ 139 µg/m3 as specified in the Wildfire Smoke, A Guide for Public Health Officials? Or is air quality unhealthy when 1- to 3-hr PM2.5 is ≥ 88.6 μg/m3 as specified in the Montana categorizations? This work then examines the relationship between visual range and PM2.5 concentrations using data from the Interagency Monitoring of PROtected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) program and the IMPROVE extinction coefficient (βext) equation to simulate an atmosphere dominated by smoke for sites in the arid intermountain western U.S. and great plains. This was accomplished by rearranging the βext equation to solve for organic mass as a function of VR. The results show that PM2.5 and VR are related by PM2.5 = 622 * VR−0.98 with a correlation of 0.99 and that at low VR values (<10 km) a small change in VR results in a large change in PM2.5 concentrations. The results also show that relative humidity and the presence of hygroscopic pollutants from sources other than fire can change the VR/PM2.5 relationships, especially at PM2.5 concentrations less than approximately 90 µg/m3. Implications: This work illustrates the limitations of current approaches linking VR, PM2.5 concentrations, and air quality health impact indices. It is the first published summary of known VR/PM2.5/health impact approaches nationally and internationally and the first application of the IMPROVE data and extinction coefficient equation to investigate these approaches scientifically for smoke-filled atmospheres. These VR/PM2.5/health impact indices are used to estimate PM2.5 concentrations when monitoring data are not available in order to inform the public during periods of wildfire smoke impacts. This work also offers discussion points to inform future work.

Modeling crop residue burning experiments to evaluate smoke emissions and plume transport

Crop residue burning is a common land management practice that results in emissions of a variety of pollutants with negative health impacts. Modeling systems are used to estimate air quality impacts of crop residue burning to support retrospective regulatory assessments and also for forecasting purposes. Ground and airborne measurements from a recent field experiment in the Pacific Northwest focused on cropland residue burning was used to evaluate model performance in capturing surface and aloft impacts from the burning events. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was used to simulate multiple crop residue burns with 2 km grid spacing using field-specific information and also more general assumptions traditionally used to support National Emission Inventory based assessments. Field study specific information, which includes area burned, fuel consumption, and combustion completeness, resulted in increased biomass consumption by 123 tons (60% increase) on average compared to consumption estimated with default methods in the National Emission Inventory (NEI) process. Buoyancy heat flux, a key parameter for model predicted fire plume rise, estimated from fuel loading obtained from field measurements can be 30% to 200% more than when estimated using default field information. The increased buoyancy heat flux resulted in higher plume rise by 30% to 80%. This evaluation indicates that the regulatory air quality modeling system can replicate intensity and transport (horizontal and vertical) features for crop residue burning in this region when region-specific information is used to inform emissions and plume rise calculations. Further, previous vertical emissions allocation treatment of putting all cropland residue burning in the surface layer does not compare well with measured plume structure and these types of burns should be modeled more similarly to prescribed fires such that plume rise is based on an estimate of buoyancy.