Terence C. Mills

Trends and Cycles in British Industrial Production, 1700-1913

A new index of industrial production for Britain for the years 1700 to 1913 is constructed. Using a structural time series model estimated via the Kaiman filter, the index is decomposed into its trend and cycle components. These are then compared with those obtained from using traditionally available indices and the implications for the historiography of British economic growth during the 18th and 19th century are discussed.

A time series forecasting system for the UK money supply

Abstract This paper develops a monthly forecasting system for £M3 which is capable of immediate updating and continual monitoring. The model building technique uses a class of seasonal multiplicative ARIMA models, augmented by the inclusion of various interventions to account for known institutional effects and also utilizes recent results on the aggregation and combination of forecasts. The forecasting system is programmed on the widely available Statistical Analysis System (SAS).

Four paradoxes in U.K. GDP

Abstract Evidence is presented for the U.K. to support Roses findings of four important paradoxes in the time series structure of real output for the U.S.