Nicholas Crafts

Economic Growth in Europe since 1945

This compelling volume re-examines the topic of economic growth in Europe after the Second World War. The contributors approach the subject armed not only with new theoretical ideas, but also with the experience of the 1980s on which to draw. The analysis is based on both applied economics and on economic history. Thus, while the volume is greatly informed by insights from growth theory, emphasis is given to the presentation of chronological and institutional detail. The case study approach and the adoption of a longer-run perspective than is normal for economists allow new insights to be obtained. As well as including chapters that consider the experience of individual European countries, the book explores general European institutional arrangements and historical circumstances. The result is a genuinely comparative picture of post-war growth, with insights that do not emerge from standard cross-section regressions based on the post-1960 period.

Globalization and Growth in The Twentieth Century

This paper reviews the experience of economic growth during the twentieth century with a view to highlighting implications for both growth economists and policy-makers. The unprecedented divergence in income levels between the OECD economies and many developing countries is documented but so too is a more optimistic picture of widespread progress in terms of the Human Development Index. Various aspects of the changes in economic structure are explored in terms of their implications for growth performance both in retrospect and prospect. The possibility that the growth process will lead to another globalization backlash reminiscent of the 1930s is analyzed.

Exogenous or Endogenous Growth? The Industrial Revolution Reconsidered

The British Industrial Revolution is reviewed in the light of recent developments in modeling economic growth. It is argued that †endogenous innovation†models may be useful in this context particularly for understanding why total factor productivity growth rose only slowly. †Macroinventions†were central to economic development in this period, however, and these are best seen as exogenous technological shocks. Although new growth theorists would easily identify higher growth potential in eighteenth-century Britain than in France, explaining the timing of the acceleration in growth remains elusive. A research agenda to develop further insights from new growth ideas is proposed.

East Asian Growth before and after the Crisis

The paper surveys the literature on the growth performance of the East Asian economies, evaluates the sustainability of that performance, and provides a preliminary assessment of their long-term growth prospects in the aftermath of the current crisis. It highlights special features of East Asian growth, including unusually high factor accumulation and a favorable demographic transition, but argues that total factor productivity growth has generally been somewhat disappointing. It argues that there are downside risks to the East Asian “developmental state” model, and that it may become less attractive as these economies mature.

The Human Development Index and changes in standards of living: Some historical comparisons

The article compiles measures of the Human Development Index and also growth rates of real GDP/person adjusted for changes in mortality and leisure for 16 advanced economies since 1870. It is argued that relatively low life expectancy implies that the high income countries of 1870 had lower living standards than most of todays Third World but that since 1870 imputations for reductions in market work time have added more to growth than decreases in mortality. Overall, it seems clear that conventional measures of economic growth seriously understate the rate of improvement in living standards since 1870.

British Economic Growth Since 1945: Relative Economic Decline.... and Renaissance?

The paper contains a thorough review of explanations for the weak British growth performance of the 1950s through the 1970s and an assessment of the long-term implications of the 1980s attempt to escape from relative decline. The analysis draws on recent work in growth theory and places institutions and government policy at the heart of the growth process. We illustrate the possible adverse effects of industrial relations and social contracts on pre-1979 performance and highlight the difficulty of measuring the role of human capital. We believe the jury is still out on the implications for long-term growth potential of the post-1979 policy changes.

Economic growth in Europe since 1945: Postwar growth: an overview

Introduction One of the most difficult and intriguing tasks of a theory of economic growth is to combine both the disruptive and the integrative, the qualitatively changing and the quantitatively steady, aspects of the process. ( Kuznets, 1965: 23 ) We still refer to the past fifty years as the ‘postwar’: this is perhaps the best tribute to the fact that the ‘second Thirty Years War’ (1914–1945) marked a major watershed in the history of mankind. So much so that it proved to be a major intellectual watershed as well. In fact, until fairly recently, 1945 often marked the borderline of historical research, more recent decades being considered as the playing ground for journalists, political scientists and sociologists. Only the boldest, or most inconsiderate, scholars entered the field, and they did so at their own risk. The same can be said of economic historians: with few exceptions, they have been reluctant to apply the tools of their trade to the ‘postwar’ period, more often than not leaving it as the domain of applied economists. Things are changing, however, and the half century following the end of the Second World War is now increasingly seen as being ripe for historical investigation, much beyond the Marshall Plan years that have attracted much recent attention. This chapter aims at reviewing the performance of the European economy since 1945 in a longer-run perspective, which sees the period from 1913 to 1973 as being an exceptional one in the history of ‘modern economic growth’, in that it departed from the secular trend first (1913–45) by under-and then (1945–73) by overperforming. In this chapter, the European economy is tentatively seen as an aggregate, at least in fieri .

Quantitative Aspects of Post-war European Economic Growth

Interest in growth theory has reawakened since the middle of the 1980s, but it is some time since a comparative exercise has been carried out. This volume explores the catch-up and convergence evidence of European growth on a cross-sectional basis, armed not only with alternative theoretical ideas, but also with the empirical evidence since 1950 on which to draw. Individual chapters cover macroeconomic accounts, national accounts by industry, measures of fixed capital stocks, technology indicators, human capital, total factor productivity and changes in trend rates of growth, and each assesses the pitfalls, benefits and implications of the methods used. The result is an authoritative quantitative account of the dimensions of European economic growth within an explicitly internationally comparative framework.

Productivity Growth in the Industrial Revolution: A New Growth Accounting Perspective

The issue of why productivity growth during the British industrial revolution was slow despite the arrival of famous inventions is revisited using a growth accounting methodology based on an endogenous innovation model and the perspective of recent literature on general purpose technologies. The results show that steam had a relatively small and long-delayed impact on productivity growth when benchmarked against later technologies such as electricity or ICT. Even so, technological change including embodiment effects accounted entirely for the acceleration in labor productivity growth that allowed the economy to withstand rapid population growth without a decline in living standards.

Britain's Productivity Gap in the 1930s: Some Neglected Factors

This article proposes a reinterpretation of the failure of interwar British productivity levels to match those of the United States. We argue that key elements in poor British productivity performance included inadequate human capital, a bargaining environment that allowed workers to maintain restrictive practices, and collusive agreements that limited the exit of inefficient firms. We suggest that weaknesses in the structure of British firms pointed out by Chandler and his followers have been overemphasized and that more attention should be given to the role of the market environment in determining the conduct of business.