Thomas Brinsmead

Australia is ‘free to choose’ economic growth and falling environmental pressures

Over two centuries of economic growth have put undeniable pressure on the ecological systems that underpin human well-being. While it is agreed that these pressures are increasing, views divide on how they may be alleviated. Some suggest technological advances will automatically keep us from transgressing key environmental thresholds; others that policy reform can reconcile economic and ecological goals; while a third school argues that only a fundamental shift in societal values can keep human demands within the Earth’s ecological limits. Here we use novel integrated analysis of the energy–water–food nexus, rural land use (including biodiversity), material flows and climate change to explore whether mounting ecological pressures in Australia can be reversed, while the population grows and living standards improve. We show that, in the right circumstances, economic and environmental outcomes can be decoupled. Although economic growth is strong across all scenarios, environmental performance varies widely: pressures are projected to more than double, stabilize or fall markedly by 2050. However, we find no evidence that decoupling will occur automatically. Nor do we find that a shift in societal values is required. Rather, extensions of current policies that mobilize technology and incentivize reduced pressure account for the majority of differences in environmental performance. Our results show that Australia can make great progress towards sustainable prosperity, if it chooses to do so.

Towards Zero Carbon Scenarios for the Australian Economy

Australia’s high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per capita reflects its relatively high proportion of fossil fuels in energy consumed, high usage of less efficient private transport and high production of non-ferrous metals per capita. The dominance of coal-fired electricity generation masks Australia’s rich diversity of renewable energy resources. This analysis examines multiple pathways towards achieving deep GHG emissions reduction by 2050 towards a zero emission energy sector. The electricity and transport sectors can achieve the greatest GHG emissions reductions of 70–80% by 2050. The direct combustion sector has a harder abatement task owing to fewer directly substitutable low emission energy sources. Strong global climate ambition, supporting high carbon prices, and the successful management of high shares of variable renewable electricity (VRE) generation are important in achieving deep emission reductions. Further research and development is required to unlock the potential of additional sources of low emission energy such as hydrogen and solar thermal heat to ensure emissions can be completely eliminated without the need to purchase potentially higher cost emission credits from other domestic sectors or the international market.