Thomas F. Cooley

Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique

Abstract The spurious nature of the restrictions used to identify many macroeconometric models has led some researchers to advocate a style of econometric inquiry that is less dependent on prior theoretical restrictions of the sort that were central to the approach of the Cowles Commission. This development, which we call atheoretical macroeconometrics, is summarized and evaluated in the current paper. It is contrasted with an updated version of the Cowles Commission approach. We conclude that while some of the exercises of atheoretical macroeconometrics are valid, those that have attracted the most attention and appear the most innovative-exogeneity testing, impulse response analysis and policy analysis using estimated vector autoregressions - are based on incorrect analysis.

A Positive Theory of Social Security Based on Reputation

We Construct a general equilibrium model in which a pay‐as‐you‐go social security system can be adopted and sustained as a political and economic equilibrium. We alalyze the welfare implictions of this system and compare general equilibrium welfare measure to the commonly used notion of actuarial fairness.

Business cycle analysis without much theory A look at structural VARs

Abstract This paper examines the usefulness of applying structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) to the study of business cycles. The SVAR approach aims to provide robust inferences, by imposing only weak theoretical restrictions. We illustrate that the robustness of conclusions drawn from SVAR exercises are questionable. We also examine the problem of identification failure in structural VAR models.

THE CYCLICAL BEHAVIOR OF PRICES

Abstract The procyclical behavior of prices has been a staple of business cycle lore since the work of the early NBER business cycle researchers. This paper reexamines that empirical fact. The aggregate data do not support procyclical price movements as a stable feature of the business cycle. The only episode where it is a robust feature of the data is the period between the two world wars, particularly the period of the Great Depression.

Tax distortions in a neoclassical monetary economy

In this paper we use the common perspective provided by the neoclassical growth model to evaluate the size of the distortions associated with different monetary and fiscal policies designed to finance a given sequence of government expenditures. We construct an artificial monetary economy incorporating the cash-in-advance framework of Lucas and Stokey (1983), calibrate it to match important features of the U.S. economy, and simulate it to provide a quantitative assessment of the welfare costs associated with government policies involving different combinations of taxes on capital and labor income, consumption, and holdings of money. In particular, we evaluate the welfare gains from tax reforms that are designed to replace taxes on capital or labor income with other forms of taxation. Our results suggest that the welfare costs of financing a given sequence of government expenditures are slightly lower in economies that substitute inflation or consumption taxes for the tax on labor income, but dramatically lower for economies that substitute any of these taxes for the tax on capital income. Replacing the capital tax with a consumption tax, for example, eliminates 81 percent of the welfare cost arising from distorting taxation. In addition, we show that these welfare costs can be reduced further by eliminating the capital tax with a nonstationary policy that involves a transition to a temporary policy followed by a new steady state policy rather than an immediate change to a new steady state policy.

A neoclassical model of the Phillips curve relation

This paper integrates the modern theory of unemployment with a limited participation model of money and asks whether such a framework can produce correlations like those associated with the Phillips curve as well as realistic labor market dynamics. The model incorporates both monetary and real shocks. The response of the economy to monetary policy shocks is consistent with recent evidence about the impact of these shocks on the economy.

Employment and hours over the business cycle

Abstract Approximately one quarter of the adjustment in total hours of employment over the business cycle represents adjustments in hours, while the remainder is explained by changes in employment. Real business cycle models characterize agents as either continuously adjusting their hours or making only labor force participation decisions about jobs with indivisible hours. In this paper we extend the representative agent framework to allow for decisions on both participation and hours. We calibrate and simulate a dynamic version of the model and show that it is better able to mimic some features of the aggregate data.

The Replacement Problem

We construct a vintage capital model of economic growth in which the decision to replace old technologies with new ones is modeled explicitly. Depreciation in this environment is an economic, not a physical concept. We describe the balanced growth paths and the transitional dynamics of this economy. We illustrate the importance of vintage capital by analyzing the response of the economy to fiscal policies designed to stimulate investment in new technologies.

The Business Cycle with Nominal Contracts

SummaryIn this paper we study the quantitative implications of nominal wage contracts for business cycle fluctuations. We address this issue using a model economy based on the neoclassical growth model supplemented by the assumption that cash is needed to purchase goods. We consider a variation of the standard recursive competitive equilibrium concept that is intended to capture the important features of wage contracting. We use this equilibrium construct to address three issues. First, we consider whether monetary shocks, propagated by nominal contracts, constitute a viable alternative to technology shocks as a source of aggregate fluctuations. Our results suggest that, while monetary shocks and nominal rigidities succeed in causing output volatility of the required magnitude, the resulting data have properties that are inconsistent with several key features of U.S. data. Second, we consider how the behavior of the economy varies with contract length. We find that the volatility induced by both monetary and technology shocks increases sharply with contract length. Finally we consider how much rigidity would be necessary to match the volatility of U.S. output. We find that only a very small amount of rigidity would be necessary to cause output volatility of the magnitude observed.

Executive Compensation: Facts

In this paper we describe the important features of executive compensation in the US from 1993 to 2006. Some confirm what has been found for earlier periods and some are novel. Notable facts are that: the compensation distribution is highly skewed; each year, a sizeable fraction of chief executives lose money; the use of security grants has increased over time; the income accruing to CEOs from the sale of stock increased; regardless of the measure we adopt, compensation responds strongly to innovations in shareholder wealth; measured as dollar changes in compensation, incentives have strengthened over time, measured as percentage changes in wealth, they have not changed in any appreciable way.