Thomas Haiden

Katabatic Flow Mechanisms on a Low-Angle Slope

Momentum and heat budget equations for katabatic flows on sloping surfaces are revisited. Terms in these equations are evaluated using wind and potential temperature data from four tethered-balloon data collection systems on a 3-km line running down a 1.6° slope at the foot of the Oquirrh Mountains in Utah’s Great Salt Lake valley. The analyses focus on the development with downslope distance of the katabatic flow and the associated negatively buoyant layer under synoptically undisturbed conditions. With strong ambient stratification, the katabatic flow shows little variation between sites, suggesting a state close to local equilibrium. When the ambient stratification is weaker, the acceleration of the katabatic flow between two tethersonde sites is systematically larger than what would be predicted based on observed buoyancy. Comparison of observed flow direction with the local topographic gradient indicates that slope curvature, associated with small deviations from the basically planar slope, may be responsible for the anomalous increase. It is concluded that the cross-slope homogeneity of the flow, which is assumed in simplified katabatic flow models, may be significantly disturbed even on slopes that appear to be planar to the observer.

Minimum Temperatures, Diurnal Temperature Ranges, and Temperature Inversions in Limestone Sinkholes of Different Sizes and Shapes

Abstract Air temperature data from five enclosed limestone sinkholes of various sizes and shapes on the Hetzkogel Plateau near Lunz, Austria (1300 m MSL), have been analyzed to determine the effect of sinkhole geometry on temperature minima, diurnal temperature ranges, temperature inversion strengths, and vertical temperature gradients. Data were analyzed for a non-snow-covered October night and for a snow-covered December night when the temperature fell as low as −28.5°C. A surprising finding is that temperatures were similar in two sinkholes with very different drainage areas and depths. A three-layer model was used to show that the sky-view factor is the most important topographic parameter controlling cooling for basins in this size range in near-calm, clear-sky conditions and that the cooling slows when net longwave radiation at the floor of the sinkhole is nearly balanced by the ground heat flux.

Nocturnal Cold-Air Intrusions into a Closed Basin: Observational Evidence and Conceptual Model

Abstract Observations are analyzed to explain an unusual feature of the nighttime atmospheric structure inside Arizona’s idealized, basin-shaped Meteor Crater. The upper 75%–80% of the crater’s atmosphere, which overlies an intense surface-based inversion on the crater’s floor, maintains a near-isothermal lapse rate during the entire night, even while continuing to cool. Evidence is presented to show that this near-isothermal layer is produced by cold-air intrusions that come over the crater’s rim. The intrusions are driven by a regional-scale drainage flow that develops over the surrounding inclined Colorado Plateau. Cold air from the drainage flow builds up on the upwind side of the crater and splits around the crater at low levels. A shallow layer of cold air, however, spills over the 30–60-m-high rim and descends partway down the crater’s upwind inner sidewall until reaching its buoyancy equilibrium level. Detrainment of cold air during its katabatic descent and compensatory rising motions in the crat...

Trends in the predictive performance of raw ensemble weather forecasts

This study applies statistical postprocessing to ensemble forecasts of near-surface temperature, 24 h precipitation totals, and near-surface wind speed from the global model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The main objective is to evaluate the evolution of the difference in skill between the raw ensemble and the postprocessed forecasts. Reliability and sharpness, and hence skill, of the former is expected to improve over time. Thus, the gain by postprocessing is expected to decrease. Based on ECMWF forecasts from January 2002 to March 2014 and corresponding observations from globally distributed stations, we generate postprocessed forecasts by ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) for each station and variable. Given the higher average skill of the postprocessed forecasts, we analyze the evolution of the difference in skill between raw ensemble and EMOS. This skill gap remains almost constant over time indicating that postprocessing will keep adding skill in the foreseeable future.

Intercomparison of Global Model Precipitation Forecast Skill in 2010/11 Using the SEEPS Score

AbstractPrecipitation forecasts from five global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are verified against rain gauge observations using the new stable equitable error in probability space (SEEPS) score. It is based on a 3 × 3 contingency table and measures the ability of a forecast to discriminate between “dry,” “light precipitation,” and “heavy precipitation.” In SEEPS, the threshold defining the boundary between the light and heavy categories varies systematically with precipitation climate. Results obtained for SEEPS are compared to those of more well-known scores, and are broken down with regard to individual contributions from the contingency table. It is found that differences in skill between the models are consistent for different scores, but are small compared to seasonal and geographical variations, which themselves can be largely ascribed to the varying prevalence of deep convection. Differences between the tropics and extratropics are quite pronounced. SEEPS scores at forecast day 1 in t...

A Mass Flux Model of Nocturnal Cold-Air Intrusions into a Closed Basin

AbstractObservations made during the Meteor Crater Experiment (METCRAX) field campaign revealed unexpected nighttime cooling characteristics in Arizona’s Meteor Crater. Unlike in other natural closed basins, a near-isothermal temperature profile regularly develops over most of the crater depth, with only a shallow stable layer near the crater floor. A conceptual model proposed by Whiteman et al. attributes the near-isothermal stratification to the intrusion, and subsequent detrainment, of near-surface air from outside the crater into the crater atmosphere. To quantify and test the hypothesis, a mass flux model of the intrusion process is developed. It is found that the observed temperature profile can be reproduced, providing confirmation of the conceptual model. The near-isothermal stratification can be explained as a result of progressively cooler air entering the crater and detraining into the atmosphere, combined with the finite time of ascent in the compensating rising motion. The strength of detrain...

Effect of Dewfall and Frostfall on Nighttime Cooling in a Small, Closed Basin

Abstract Series of tethered balloon soundings of temperature and humidity in Austria’s Gruenloch basin (floor elevation 1270 m MSL) on two June days showed that the water vapor mixing ratio fell by 2–3 g kg−1 overnight as dew or frost formed in the basin. After sunrise, the basin atmosphere remoistened as higher humidity was brought down into the basin from above and as evapotranspiration occurred from the basin floor and sidewalls. The latent heat released at night by the dewfall/frostfall was 33%–53% of the overall observed basin sensible heat loss, illustrating the important role of dew and frost formation on the nighttime heat budget of the basin atmosphere. An energy budget equation illustrates the decreasing importance of the latent heat release on the overall basin heat budget as ambient temperatures fall from summer to winter. Because the diurnal temperature range is frequently larger than the late-afternoon dewpoint depression, fog and clouds often form in this basin. The extreme temperature mini...

Soil temperature at ECMWF: An assessment using ground-based observations

Soil temperature is an important variable for the representation of many physical processes in numerical weather prediction (NWP). It is the key driver for all surface emissions of energy, carbon dioxide, and water and forward operator for all satellite sensors sensitive to land. Yet the forecast quality of this variable in NWP is largely unknown. In this study, in situ soil temperature measurements from nearly 700 stations belonging to four networks across the United States and Europe are used to assess the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecasts of soil temperature during 2012. Evaluation of the time series shows a good performance of the short-range forecasts (day one) in capturing both soil temperature annual and diurnal cycles with very high level of correlation (0.92 and over), averaged root-mean-square differences ranging from 2.54°C to 3.89°C and averaged biases ranging from −0.52°C to 0.94°C. The orography data set used in the forecast system was found to have a strong impact on the outcomes of the evaluation. The difference between elevation of a station and that of the corresponding grid cell in the ECMWF model may lead to large temperature differences linked to linear processes resulting in a constant bias, as well as nonlinear processes (e.g., to snow melt in spring). This verification study aims to contribute to a better understanding of the near-surface forecasts performance highlighting land-atmosphere processes that need to be better represented in future model development such as snow pack melting and heat diffusion in the soil.

Discrete Postprocessing of Total Cloud Cover Ensemble Forecasts

AbstractThis paper presents an approach to postprocess ensemble forecasts for the discrete and bounded weather variable of total cloud cover. Two methods for discrete statistical postprocessing of ensemble predictions are tested: the first approach is based on multinomial logistic regression and the second involves a proportional odds logistic regression model. Applying them to total cloud cover raw ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts improves forecast skill significantly. Based on stationwise postprocessing of raw ensemble total cloud cover forecasts for a global set of 3330 stations over the period from 2007 to early 2014, the more parsimonious proportional odds logistic regression model proved to slightly outperform the multinomial logistic regression model.

Improving Predictions of Precipitation Type at the Surface: Description and Verification of Two New Products from the ECMWF Ensemble

AbstractThe medium-range ensemble (ENS) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) is used to create two new products intended to face the challenges of winter precipitation-type forecasting. The products themselves are a map product that represents which precipitation type is most likely whenever the probability of precipitation is >50% (also including information on lower probability outcomes) and a meteogram product, showing the temporal evolution of the instantaneous precipitation-type probabilities for a specific location, classified into three categories of precipitation rate. A minimum precipitation rate is also used to distinguish dry from precipitating conditions, setting this value according to type, in order to try to enforce a zero frequency bias for all precipitation types. The new products differ from other ECMWF products in three important respects: first, the input variable is discretized, rather than continuous; second, the post...