Thomas L. Powell

Confronting model predictions of carbon fluxes with measurements of Amazon forests subjected to experimental drought

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the fate of Amazon rainforests in response to climate change. Here, carbon (C) flux predictions of five terrestrial biosphere models (Community Land Model version 3.5 (CLM3.5), Ecosystem Demography model version 2.1 (ED2), Integrated BIosphere Simulator version 2.6.4 (IBIS), Joint UK Land Environment Simulator version 2.1 (JULES) and Simple Biosphere model version 3 (SiB3)) and a hydrodynamic terrestrial ecosystem model (the Soil-Plant-Atmosphere (SPA) model) were evaluated against measurements from two large-scale Amazon drought experiments. Model predictions agreed with the observed C fluxes in the control plots of both experiments, but poorly replicated the responses to the drought treatments. Most notably, with the exception of ED2, the models predicted negligible reductions in aboveground biomass in response to the drought treatments, which was in contrast to an observed c. 20% reduction at both sites. For ED2, the timing of the decline in aboveground biomass was accurate, but the magnitude was too high for one site and too low for the other. Three key findings indicate critical areas for future research and model development. First, the models predicted declines in autotrophic respiration under prolonged drought in contrast to measured increases at one of the sites. Secondly, models lacking a phenological response to drought introduced bias in the sensitivity of canopy productivity and respiration to drought. Thirdly, the phenomenological water-stress functions used by the terrestrial biosphere models to represent the effects of soil moisture on stomatal conductance yielded unrealistic diurnal and seasonal responses to drought.

Deforestation and climate feedbacks threaten the ecological integrity of south -southeastern Amazonia

A mosaic of protected areas, including indigenous lands, sustainable-use production forests and reserves and strictly protected forests is the cornerstone of conservation in the Amazon, with almost 50 per cent of the region now protected. However, recent research indicates that isolation from direct deforestation or degradation may not be sufficient to maintain the ecological integrity of Amazon forests over the next several decades. Large-scale changes in fire and drought regimes occurring as a result of deforestation and greenhouse gas increases may result in forest degradation, regardless of protected status. How severe or widespread these feedbacks will be is uncertain, but the arc of deforestation in south–southeastern Amazonia appears to be particularly vulnerable owing to high current deforestation rates and ecological sensitivity to climate change. Maintaining forest ecosystem integrity may require significant strengthening of forest conservation on private property, which can in part be accomplished by leveraging existing policy mechanisms.

Vegetation Demographics in Earth System Models: a review of progress and priorities

Numerous current efforts seek to improve the representation of ecosystem ecology and vegetation demographic processes within Earth System Models (ESMs). These developments are widely viewed as an important step in developing greater realism in predictions of future ecosystem states and fluxes. Increased realism, however, leads to increased model complexity, with new features raising a suite of ecological questions that require empirical constraints. Here, we review the developments that permit the representation of plant demographics in ESMs, and identify issues raised by these developments that highlight important gaps in ecological understanding. These issues inevitably translate into uncertainty in model projections but also allow models to be applied to new processes and questions concerning the dynamics of real-world ecosystems. We argue that stronger and more innovative connections to data, across the range of scales considered, are required to address these gaps in understanding. The development of first-generation land surface models as a unifying framework for ecophysiological understanding stimulated much research into plant physiological traits and gas exchange. Constraining predictions at ecologically relevant spatial and temporal scales will require a similar investment of effort and intensified inter-disciplinary communication.

Differences in xylem and leaf hydraulic traits explain differences in drought tolerance among mature Amazon rainforest trees

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on the composition and structure of Amazon forests. Building upon results from two large-scale ecosystem drought experiments in the eastern Brazilian Amazon that observed increases in mortality rates among some tree species but not others, in this study we investigate the physiological traits underpinning these differential demographic responses. Xylem pressure at 50% conductivity (xylem-P50 ), leaf turgor loss point (TLP), cellular osmotic potential (πo ), and cellular bulk modulus of elasticity (ε), all traits mechanistically linked to drought tolerance, were measured on upper canopy branches and leaves of mature trees from selected species growing at the two drought experiment sites. Each species was placed a priori into one of four plant functional type (PFT) categories: drought-tolerant versus drought-intolerant based on observed mortality rates, and subdivided into early- versus late-successional based on wood density. We tested the hypotheses that the measured traits would be significantly different between the four PFTs and that they would be spatially conserved across the two experimental sites. Xylem-P50 , TLP, and πo , but not ε, occurred at significantly higher water potentials for the drought-intolerant PFT compared to the drought-tolerant PFT; however, there were no significant differences between the early- and late-successional PFTs. These results suggest that these three traits are important for determining drought tolerance, and are largely independent of wood density-a trait commonly associated with successional status. Differences in these physiological traits that occurred between the drought-tolerant and drought-intolerant PFTs were conserved between the two research sites, even though they had different soil types and dry-season lengths. This more detailed understanding of how xylem and leaf hydraulic traits vary between co-occuring drought-tolerant and drought-intolerant tropical tree species promises to facilitate a much-needed improvement in the representation of plant hydraulics within terrestrial ecosystem and biosphere models, which will enhance our ability to make robust predictions of how future changes in climate will affect tropical forests.

Low impact of dry conditions on the CO2 exchange of a Northern-Norwegian blanket bog

Northern peatlands hold large amounts of organic carbon (C) in their soils and are as such important in a climate change context. Blanket bogs, i.e. nutrient-poor peatlands restricted to maritime climates, may be extra vulnerable to global warming since they require a positive water balance to sustain their moss dominated vegetation and C sink functioning. This study presents a 4.5 year record of land-atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange from the Andoya blanket bog in northern Norway. Compared with other peatlands, the Andoya peatland exhibited low flux rates, related to the low productivity of the dominating moss and lichen communities and the maritime settings that attenuated seasonal temperature variations. It was observed that under periods of high vapour pressure deficit, net ecosystem exchange was reduced, which was mainly caused by a decrease in gross primary production. However, no persistent effects of dry conditions on the CO2 exchange dynamics were observed, indicating that under present conditions and within the range of observed meteorological conditions the Andoya blanket bog retained its C uptake function. Continued monitoring of these ecosystem types is essential in order to detect possible effects of a changing climate. (Less)

Variation in hydroclimate sustains tropical forest biomass and promotes functional diversity

The fate of tropical forests under climate change is unclear as a result, in part, of the uncertainty in projected changes in precipitation and in the ability of vegetation models to capture the effects of drought-induced mortality on aboveground biomass (AGB). We evaluated the ability of a terrestrial biosphere model with demography and hydrodynamics (Ecosystem Demography, ED2-hydro) to simulate AGB and mortality of four tropical tree plant functional types (PFTs) that operate along light- and water-use axes. Model predictions were compared with observations of canopy trees at Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. We then assessed the implications of eight hypothetical precipitation scenarios, including increased annual precipitation, reduced inter-annual variation, El Niño-related droughts and drier wet or dry seasons, on AGB and functional diversity of the model forest. When forced with observed meteorology, ED2-hydro predictions capture multiple BCI benchmarks. ED2-hydro predicts that AGB will be sustained under lower rainfall via shifts in the functional composition of the forest, except under the drier dry-season scenario. These results support the hypothesis that inter-annual variation in mean and seasonal precipitation promotes the coexistence of functionally diverse PFTs because of the relative differences in mortality rates. If the hydroclimate becomes chronically drier or wetter, functional evenness related to drought tolerance may decline.

Xylem embolism refilling and resilience against drought-induced mortality in woody plants: processes and trade-offs

Understanding which species are able to recover from drought, under what conditions, and the mechanistic processes involved, will facilitate predictions of plant mortality in response to global change. In response to drought, some species die because of embolism-induced hydraulic failure, whilst others are able to avoid mortality and recover, following rehydration. Several tree species have evolved strategies to avoid embolism, whereas others tolerate high embolism rates but can recover their hydraulic functioning upon drought relief. Here, we focus on structures and processes that might allow some plants to recover from drought stress via embolism reversal. We provide insights into how embolism repair may have evolved, anatomical and physiological features that facilitate this process, and describe possible trade-offs and related costs. Recent controversies on methods used for estimating embolism formation/repair are also discussed, providing some methodological suggestions. Although controversial, embolism repair processes are apparently based on the activity of phloem and ray/axial parenchyma. The mechanism is energetically demanding, and the costs to plants include metabolism and transport of soluble sugars, water and inorganic ions. We propose that embolism repair should be considered as a possible component of a ‘hydraulic efficiency-safety’ spectrum. We also advance a framework for vegetation models, describing how vulnerability curves may change in hydrodynamic model formulations for plants that recover from embolism.

A metadata reporting framework (FRAMES) for synthesis of ecohydrological observations

Abstract Metadata describe the ancillary information needed for data preservation and independent interpretation, comparison across heterogeneous datasets, and quality assessment and quality control (QA/QC). Environmental observations are vastly diverse in type and structure, can be taken across a wide range of spatiotemporal scales in a variety of measurement settings and approaches, and saved in multiple formats. Thus, well-organized, consistent metadata are required to produce usable data products from diverse environmental observations collected across field sites. However, existing metadata reporting protocols do not support the complex data synthesis and model-data integration needs of interdisciplinary earth system research. We developed a metadata reporting framework (FRAMES) to enable management and synthesis of observational data that are essential in advancing a predictive understanding of earth systems. FRAMES utilizes best practices for data and metadata organization enabling consistent data reporting and compatibility with a variety of standardized data protocols. We used an iterative scientist-centered design process to develop FRAMES, resulting in a data reporting format that incorporates existing field practices to maximize data-entry efficiency. Thus, FRAMES has a modular organization that streamlines metadata reporting and can be expanded to incorporate additional data types. With FRAMESs multi-scale measurement position hierarchy, data can be reported at observed spatial resolutions and then easily aggregated and linked across measurement types to support model-data integration. FRAMES is in early use by both data originators (persons generating data) and consumers (persons using data and metadata). In this paper, we describe FRAMES, identify lessons learned, and discuss areas of future development.