Timothy W. Cronin

Indirect Emissions from Biofuels: How Important?

Biofuel Backfire For compelling economical, geopolitical, and environmental reasons, biofuels are considered an attractive alternative to fossil fuels for meeting future global energy demands. Melillo et al. (p. 1397, published online 22 October), however, suggest that a few serious drawbacks related to land use need to be considered. Based on a combined biogeochemistry and economic model, indirect land use (for example, clearing forested land for food crops to compensate for increased biofuel crop production on current farmlands) is predicted to generate more soil carbon loss than directly harvesting biofuel crops. Furthermore, increased fertilizer use for biofuels will add large amounts of nitrous oxide—a more effective heat-trapping molecule than carbon dioxide—to the atmosphere. Policy decisions regarding land and crop management thus need to consider the long-term implications of increased biofuel production. Land-use changes associated with biofuel production are predicted to increase greenhouse gas emissions. A global biofuels program will lead to intense pressures on land supply and can increase greenhouse gas emissions from land-use changes. Using linked economic and terrestrial biogeochemistry models, we examined direct and indirect effects of possible land-use changes from an expanded global cellulosic bioenergy program on greenhouse gas emissions over the 21st century. Our model predicts that indirect land use will be responsible for substantially more carbon loss (up to twice as much) than direct land use; however, because of predicted increases in fertilizer use, nitrous oxide emissions will be more important than carbon losses themselves in terms of warming potential. A global greenhouse gas emissions policy that protects forests and encourages best practices for nitrogen fertilizer use can dramatically reduce emissions associated with biofuels production.

Using land to mitigate climate change: hitting the target, recognizing the trade-offs.

Land can be used in several ways to mitigate climate change, but especially under changing environmental conditions there may be implications for food prices. Using an integrated global system model, we explore the roles that these land-use options can play in a global mitigation strategy to stabilize Earths average temperature within 2 °C of the preindustrial level and their impacts on agriculture. We show that an ambitious global Energy-Only climate policy that includes biofuels would likely not achieve the 2 °C target. A thought-experiment where the world ideally prices land carbon fluxes combined with biofuels (Energy+Land policy) gets the world much closer. Land could become a large net carbon sink of about 178 Pg C over the 21st century with price incentives in the Energy+Land scenario. With land carbon pricing but without biofuels (a No-Biofuel scenario) the carbon sink is nearly identical to the case with biofuels, but emissions from energy are somewhat higher, thereby results in more warming. Absent such incentives, land is either a much smaller net carbon sink (+37 Pg C - Energy-Only policy) or a net source (-21 Pg C - No-Policy). The significant trade-off with this integrated land-use approach is that prices for agricultural products rise substantially because of mitigation costs borne by the sector and higher land prices. Share of income spent on food for wealthier regions continues to fall, but for the poorest regions, higher food prices lead to a rising share of income spent on food.

Greenhouse gas emissions from alternative futures of deforestation and agricultural management in the southern Amazon.

The Brazilian Amazon is one of the most rapidly developing agricultural areas in the world and represents a potentially large future source of greenhouse gases from land clearing and subsequent agricultural management. In an integrated approach, we estimate the greenhouse gas dynamics of natural ecosystems and agricultural ecosystems after clearing in the context of a future climate. We examine scenarios of deforestation and postclearing land use to estimate the future (2006–2050) impacts on carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from the agricultural frontier state of Mato Grosso, using a process-based biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystems Model (TEM). We estimate a net emission of greenhouse gases from Mato Grosso, ranging from 2.8 to 15.9 Pg CO2-equivalents (CO2-e) from 2006 to 2050. Deforestation is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions over this period, but land uses following clearing account for a substantial portion (24–49%) of the net greenhouse gas budget. Due to land-cover and land-use change, there is a small foregone carbon sequestration of 0.2–0.4 Pg CO2-e by natural forests and cerrado between 2006 and 2050. Both deforestation and future land-use management play important roles in the net greenhouse gas emissions of this frontier, suggesting that both should be considered in emissions policies. We find that avoided deforestation remains the best strategy for minimizing future greenhouse gas emissions from Mato Grosso.

Historical carbon emissions and uptake from the agricultural frontier of the Brazilian Amazon

Tropical ecosystems play a large and complex role in the global carbon cycle. Clearing of natural ecosystems for agriculture leads to large pulses of CO2 to the atmosphere from terrestrial biomass. Concurrently, the remaining intact ecosystems, especially tropical forests, may be sequestering a large amount of carbon from the atmosphere in response to global environmental changes including climate changes and an increase in atmospheric CO2. Here we use an approach that integrates census-based historical land use reconstructions, remote-sensing-based contemporary land use change analyses, and simulation modeling of terrestrial biogeochemistry to estimate the net carbon balance over the period 1901-2006 for the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, which is one of the most rapidly changing agricultural frontiers in the world. By the end of this period, we estimate that of the states 925 225 km2, 221 092 km2 have been converted to pastures and 89 533 km2 have been converted to croplands, with forest-to-pasture conversions being the dominant land use trajectory but with recent transitions to croplands increasing rapidly in the last decade. These conversions have led to a cumulative release of 4.8 Pg C to the atmosphere, with 80% from forest clearing and 20% from the clearing of cerrado. Over the same period, we estimate that the residual undisturbed ecosystems accumulated 0.3 Pg C in response to CO2 fertilization. Therefore, the net emissions of carbon from Mato Grosso over this period were 4.5 Pg C. Net carbon emissions from Mato Grosso since 2000 averaged 146 Tg C/yr, on the order of Brazils fossil fuel emissions during this period. These emissions were associated with the expansion of croplands to grow soybeans. While alternative management regimes in croplands, including tillage, fertilization, and cropping patterns promote carbon storage in ecosystems, they remain a small portion of the net carbon balance for the region. This detailed accounting of a regions carbon balance is the type of foundation analysis needed by the new United Nations Collaborative Programmme for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD).

Growth of the Maritime Continent and its possible contribution to recurring Ice Ages

The areal extent of the Maritime Continent (the islands of Indonesia and surrounding region) has grown larger by ~60% since 5 Ma. We argue that this growth might have altered global climate in two ways that would have contributed to making recurring Ice Ages possible. First, because rainfall over the islands of the Maritime Continent not only is heavier than that over the adjacent ocean but also correlates with the strength of the Walker Circulation, the growth of the Maritime Continent since 5 Ma may have contributed to the cooling of the eastern tropical Pacific since that time. Scaling relationships between the strength of the Walker Circulation and rainfall over the islands of the Maritime Continent and between sea surface temperature (SST) of the eastern tropical Pacific and the strength of easterly wind stress suggest that the increase in areal extent of islands would lead to a drop in that SST of 0.75°C. Although only a fraction of the 3–4°C decrease in SSTs between the eastern and western tropical Pacific, the growth of the Maritime Continent may have strengthened the Walker Circulation, increased the east-west temperature gradient across the Pacific and thereby enabled ice sheets to wax and wane over Canada since 3 Ma. Second, because the weathering of basaltic rock under warm, moist conditions extracts CO2 from the atmosphere more rapidly than weathering of other rock or of basalt under cooler or drier conditions, the increase in weathering due to increasing area of basalt in the Maritime Continent may have drawn down enough CO2 from the atmosphere to affect global temperatures. Simple calculations suggest that increased weathering of basalt might have lowered global temperatures by 0.25°C, possibly important for the overall cooling.

Low clouds suppress Arctic air formation and amplify high-latitude continental winter warming

Significance Future-greenhouse simulations, and evidence of frost-intolerant species in high-latitude continental interiors during past equable climates, show significantly amplified warming at high latitudes over land in winter, with physical mechanisms that are still not understood. We show that the process of Arctic air formation, in which a high-latitude maritime air mass is advected over a continent, cooled at the surface, and transformed into a much colder continental polar air mass, may change dramatically and even be suppressed in warmer climates due to an increase in the duration of optically thick low clouds. This leads to two-degree warming over the continent in response to each degree of warming over the nearby ocean, possibly explaining both past and future continental warming. High-latitude continents have warmed much more rapidly in recent decades than the rest of the globe, especially in winter, and the maintenance of warm, frost-free conditions in continental interiors in winter has been a long-standing problem of past equable climates. We use an idealized single-column atmospheric model across a range of conditions to study the polar night process of air mass transformation from high-latitude maritime air, with a prescribed initial temperature profile, to much colder high-latitude continental air. We find that a low-cloud feedback—consisting of a robust increase in the duration of optically thick liquid clouds with warming of the initial state—slows radiative cooling of the surface and amplifies continental warming. This low-cloud feedback increases the continental surface air temperature by roughly two degrees for each degree increase of the initial maritime surface air temperature, effectively suppressing Arctic air formation. The time it takes for the surface air temperature to drop below freezing increases nonlinearly to ∼10 d for initial maritime surface air temperatures of 20 °C. These results, supplemented by an analysis of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 climate model runs that shows large increases in cloud water path and surface cloud longwave forcing in warmer climates, suggest that the “lapse rate feedback” in simulations of anthropogenic climate change may be related to the influence of low clouds on the stratification of the lower troposphere. The results also indicate that optically thick stratus cloud decks could help to maintain frost-free winter continental interiors in equable climates.

Conceptual model analysis of the influence of temperature feedbacks on polar amplification

Recent research has focused on the role of longwave feedbacks in polar amplification. Winton [2006] used twelve climate models from the fourth IPCC assessment report to compare the relative magnitudes of various feedbacks in the Arctic and globally for CO2 doubling in 1%/year CO2 increase experiments. He found that a large portion of the enhanced warming in the Arctic is attributable to the effect of longwave feedbacks, which include cloud, water vapor and temperature effects. Neutralizing the surface albedo feedback at high latitudes by replacing it by its global mean value in the feedback calculation still resulted in some degree of Arctic amplification relative to the global mean, indicating that the surface albedo feedback is important, but not dominant, in explaining polar amplification.

Analytic radiative‐advective equilibrium as a model for high‐latitude climate

We propose radiative-advective equilibrium as a basic-state model for the high-latitude atmosphere. Temperature profiles are determined by a competition between stabilization by atmospheric shortwave absorption and advective heat flux convergence, and destabilization by surface shortwave absorption. We derive analytic expressions for temperature profiles, assuming power law atmospheric heating profiles as a function of pressure and two-stream windowed-gray longwave radiative transfer. We discuss example profiles with and without an atmospheric window and show that the sensitivity of surface temperature to forcing depends on the nature of the forcing, with greatest sensitivity to radiative forcing by increased optical thickness and least sensitivity to increased atmospheric heat transport. These differences in sensitivity of surface temperature to forcing can be explained in terms of a forcing-dependent lapse-rate feedback.

Moisture‐radiative cooling instability

Radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE) - the statistical equilibrium state of the atmosphere where convection and radiation interact in the absence of lateral transport - is widely used as a basic-state model of the tropical atmosphere. The possibility that RCE may be unstable to development of large-scale circulation has been raised by recent modeling, theoretical, and observational studies, and could have profound consequences for our understanding of tropical meteorology and climate. Here, we study the interaction between moisture and radiative cooling as a contributor to instability of RCE. We focus on whether the total atmospheric radiative cooling decreases with column water vapor; this condition, which we call moisture-radiative cooling instability (MRCI), provides the potential for unstable growth of moist or dry perturbations. Analytic solutions to the gray-gas radiative transfer equations show that MRCI is satisfied when the total column optical depth - linked to column water vapor - exceeds a critical threshold. Both the threshold and the growth rate of the instability depend strongly on the shape of the water vapor perturbation. Calculations with a realistic radiative transfer model confirm the existence of MRCI for typical tropical values of column water vapor, but show even stronger dependence on the vertical structure of water vapor perturbation. Finally, we analyze the sensitivity of atmospheric radiative cooling to variability in column water vapor in observed tropical soundings. We find that clear-sky MRCI is satisfied across a range of locations and seasons in the real tropical atmosphere, with a partial growth rate of ∼1 month−1 This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Glacial Inception on Baffin Island: The Role of Insolation, Meteorology, and Topography

AbstractGeologic evidence suggests that the last glacial inception (115 kya) occurred within the mountains of Baffin Island. Global climate models (GCMs) have difficulty simulating this climate transition, likely because of their coarse horizontal resolution that smooths topography and necessitates the use of cumulus parameterizations. A regional configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is used to simulate the small-scale topographic and cloud processes neglected by GCMs, and the sensitivity of the region to Milankovitch forcing, topography, and meteorology is tested. It is found that ice growth is possible with 115-kya insolation, realistic topography, and slightly colder-than-average meteorology, represented by specific years within the past three decades. The simulation with low GCM-like topography shows a negative surface mass balance, even with the relevant orbital parameter configuration, demonstrating the criticality of realistic topography. The downslope growth of the ice ...