Tito Yepes

Achieving the Millennium Development Goals: The Role of Infrastructure

The authors provide an empirical analysis of the determinants of three child-health outcomes related to the Millennium Development Goals: the infant mortality rate, the child mortality rate, and the prevalence of malnutrition. Using data from Demographic and Health Surveys, they go beyond traditional cross-country regressions by exploiting the variability in outcomes and explanatory variables observed within countries between asset quintiles. The authors show the relationships existing between the prevalence of diseases (diarrhea and malnutrition) and mortality. Their findings suggest that apart from traditional variables (income, assets, education, and direct health interventions), better access to basic infrastructure services has an important role in improving child health outcomes. Their analysis of interaction effects between interventions also suggests the importance of combining interventions to meet the Millennium Development Goals.

Making Sense of Africa's Infrastructure Endowment: A Benchmarking Approach

The papers objective is to explain factors underlying Africas weak infrastructure endowment and to identify suitable infrastructure goals for the region based on benchmarking against international peers. The authors use a dataset covering the stocks of key infrastructure-including information and communication technology (ICT), power, roads, and water-across 155 developing countries over the period 1960 to 2005. The paper also examines subregional differences within Africa. They make use of regression techniques to control for a comprehensive set of economic, demographic, geographic, and historic conditioning factors, as well as adjusting for potential endogeneities. Results show that Africa lags behind all other regions of the developing world in its infrastructure endowment, except in ICT. By far the largest gaps arise in the power sector, with generating capacity and household access to electricity at half the levels observed in South Asia. While it is often assumed that Africas infrastructure deficit is largely a reflection of its relatively low income levels, the authors find that African countries have much more limited infrastructure than income peers in other parts of the developing world. Countries that face the most challenging environment, with low population density, weak governance, and history of conflict, have the poorest infrastructure endowments. At the outset of the data series, Africa was doing significantly better than other developing regions for road density, generation capacity, and fixed-line telephones, but Africas relative position has deteriorated over time. The most dramatic loss of ground has come in electrical generating capacity, which has stagnated since 1980.

Is cost recovery a feasible objective for water and electricity ? The Latin American experience

Given the relatively small segment of the population that faces genuine affordability problems in Latin America, there appears to be a promising case for using targeted subsidies to reconcile the cost recovery objective with social protection concerns. Social tariff schemes of various kinds are already widespread in Latin America, but they suffer from a number of design flaws. Increasing block tariff (IBT) structures are the most prevalent form of social tariffs in the region. These are likely to be more successful in the electricity sector than in the water sector because the correlation between consumption and income is much stronger in the case of electricity than water. Moreover, IBT structures in electricity tend to be much better designed than in the case of water, with lower fixed charges, lower subsistence blocks, and steeper gradients. A number of more sophisticated social tariff schemes are also being applied that combine consumption criteria with some form of socioeconomic screening. These are generally found to perform better than IBTs, although they also present significant room for improvement.

Location, Concentration, and Performance of Economic Activity in Brazil

What are the prospects for economic development in lagging sub-national regions? What are the roles of public infrastructure investments and fiscal incentives in influencing the location and performance of industrial activity? To examine these questions, the authors estimate a spatial profit function for industrial activity in Brazil that explicitly incorporates infrastructure improvements and fiscal incentives in the cost structure of individual firms. The authors use firm level data from the 2001 annual industrial survey along with spatially disaggregated regional data and find that there are considerable cost savings from being located in areas with relatively lower transport costs to reach large markets. In comparison, fiscal incentives, such as tax expenditures, have modest effects in terms of influencing firm level costs. Although the results suggest that firms benefit from being in locations with good access to markets, the authors do not suggest that improving interregional connectivity would necessarily assist lagging regions. In the short run, improving interregional connectivity implicitly reduces a natural tariff barrier so firms currently serving large markets and benefiting from economies of scale can more easily expand into new markets in competition with local producers. Therefore, producers in the leading regions can crowd out local producers, which would be detrimental for local production and employment in the lagging region.