Toby D. Pilditch

Whom Do We Trust on Social Policy Interventions

Abstract Social policy interventions, such as nudges (behavioral change techniques), have gained significant traction globally. But what do the public think? Does the type of expert proposing a nudge influence the kinds of evaluations the public make about nudges? Three experiments investigated this by presenting U.S. (Nu2009=u2009689) and U.K. (Nu2009=u2009978) samples with descriptions of nudges (genuine and fictitious) proposed by either scientists or the government. Overall, compared to opaque and fictitious nudges, transparent and genuine nudges were judged more ethical and plausible, and scientists proposing them were judged more trustworthy than a government working group. Also, trust in fictitious interventions proposed by scientists was higher than in genuine interventions proposed by a government working group.

Communicated beliefs about action-outcomes: The role of initial confirmation in the adoption and maintenance of unsupported beliefs ☆

As agents seeking to learn how to successfully navigate their environments, humans can both obtain knowledge through direct experience, and second-hand through communicated beliefs. Questions remain concerning how communicated belief (or instruction) interacts with first-hand evidence integration, and how the former can bias the latter. Previous research has revealed that people are more inclined to seek out confirming evidence when they are motivated to uphold the belief, resulting in confirmation bias. The current research explores whether merely communicated beliefs affect evidence integration over time when it is not of interest to uphold the belief, and all evidence is readily available. In a novel series of on-line experiments, participants chose on each trial which of two options to play for money, being exposed to outcomes of both. Prior to this, they were exposed to favourable communicated beliefs regarding one of two options. Beliefs were either initially supported or undermined by subsequent probabilistic evidence (probabilities reversed halfway through the task, rendering the options equally profitable overall). Results showed that while communicated beliefs predicted initial choices, they only biased subsequent choices when supported by initial evidence in the first phase of the experiment. Findings were replicated across contexts, evidence sequence lengths, and probabilistic distributions. This suggests that merely communicated beliefs can prevail even when not supported by long run evidence, and in the absence of a motivation to uphold them. The implications of the interaction between communicated beliefs and initial evidence for areas including instruction effects, impression formation, and placebo effects are discussed.

Large networks of rational agents form persistent echo chambers

Echo chambers (ECs) are enclosed epistemic circles where like-minded people communicate and reinforce pre-existing beliefs. It remains unclear if cognitive errors are necessarily required for ECs to emerge, and then how ECs are able to persist in networks with available contrary information. We show that ECs can theoretically emerge amongst error-free Bayesian agents, and that larger networks encourage rather than ameliorate EC growth. This suggests that the network structure itself contributes to echo chamber formation. While cognitive and social biases might exacerbate EC emergence, they are not necessary conditions. In line with this, we test stylized interventions to reduce EC formation, finding that system-wide truthful ‘educational’ broadcasts ameliorate the effect, but do not remove it entirely. Such interventions are shown to be more effective on agents newer to the network. Critically, this work serves as a formal argument for the responsibility of system architects in mitigating EC formation and retention.

A method for evaluating cognitively informed micro-targeted campaign strategies: An agent-based model proof of principle

In political campaigns, perceived candidate credibility influences the persuasiveness of messages. In campaigns aiming to influence people’s beliefs, micro-targeted campaigns (MTCs) that target specific voters using their psychological profile have become increasingly prevalent. It remains open how effective MTCs are, notably in comparison to population-targeted campaign strategies. Using an agent-based model, the paper applies recent insights from cognitive models of persuasion, extending them to the societal level in a novel framework for exploring political campaigning. The paper provides an initial treatment of the complex dynamics of population level political campaigning in a psychologically informed manner. Model simulations show that MTCs can take advantage of the psychology of the electorate by targeting voters favourable disposed towards the candidate. Relative to broad campaigning, MTCs allow for efficient and adaptive management of complex campaigns. Findings show that disliked MTC candidates can beat liked population-targeting candidates, pointing to societal questions concerning campaign regulations.