Tom Jovanovic

An assessment of biomass for bioelectricity and biofuel, and for greenhouse gas emission reduction in Australia

We provide a quantitative assessment of the prospects for current and future biomass feedstocks for bioenergy in Australia, and associated estimates of the greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation resulting from their use for production of biofuels or bioelectricity. National statistics were used to estimate current annual production from agricultural and forest production systems. Crop residues were estimated from grain production and harvest index. Wood production statistics and spatial modelling of forest growth were used to estimate quantities of pulpwood, in‐forest residues, and wood processing residues. Possible new production systems for oil from algae and the oil‐seed tree Pongamia pinnata, and of lignocellulosic biomass production from short‐rotation coppiced eucalypt crops were also examined. The following constraints were applied to biomass production and use: avoiding clearing of native vegetation; minimizing impacts on domestic food security; retaining a portion of agricultural and forest residues to protect soil; and minimizing the impact on local processing industries by diverting only the export fraction of grains or pulpwood to bioenergy. We estimated that it would be physically possible to produce 9.6 GL yr−1 of first generation ethanol from current production systems, replacing 6.5 GL yr−1 of gasoline or 34% of current gasoline usage. Current production systems for waste oil, tallow and canola seed could produce 0.9 GL yr−1 of biodiesel, or 4% of current diesel usage. Cellulosic biomass from current agricultural and forestry production systems (including biomass from hardwood plantations maturing by 2030) could produce 9.5 GL yr−1 of ethanol, replacing 6.4 GL yr−1 of gasoline, or ca. 34% of current consumption. The same lignocellulosic sources could instead provide 35 TWh yr−1, or ca. 15% of current electricity production. New production systems using algae and P. pinnata could produce ca. 3.96 and 0.9 GL biodiesel yr−1, respectively. In combination, they could replace 4.2 GL yr−1 of fossil diesel, or 23% of current usage. Short‐rotation coppiced eucalypt crops could provide 4.3 GL yr−1 of ethanol (2.9 GL yr−1 replacement, or 15% of current gasoline use) or 20.2 TWh yr−1 of electricity (9% of current generation). In total, first and second generation fuels from current and new production systems could mitigate 26 Mt CO2‐e, which is 38% of road transport emissions and 5% of the national emissions. Second generation fuels from current and new production systems could mitigate 13 Mt CO2‐e, which is 19% of road transport emissions and 2.4% of the national emissions lignocellulose from current and new production systems could mitigate 48 Mt CO2‐e, which is 28% of electricity emissions and 9% of the national emissions. There are challenging sustainability issues to consider in the production of large amounts of feedstock for bioenergy in Australia. Bioenergy production can have either positive or negative impacts. Although only the export fraction of grains and sugar was used to estimate first generation biofuels so that domestic food security was not affected, it would have an impact on food supply elsewhere. Environmental impacts on soil, water and biodiversity can be significant because of the large land base involved, and the likely use of intensive harvest regimes. These require careful management. Social impacts could be significant if there were to be large‐scale change in land use or management. In addition, although the economic considerations of feedstock production were not covered in this article, they will be the ultimate drivers of industry development. They are uncertain and are highly dependent on government policies (e.g. the price on carbon, GHG mitigation and renewable energy targets, mandates for renewable fuels), the price of fossil oil, and the scale of the industry.

A common view of the opportunities, challenges, and research actions for Pongamia in Australia.

Interest in biofuels is increasing in Australia due to volatile and rising oil prices, the need to reduce GHG emissions, and the recent introduction of a price on carbon. The seeds of Pongamia (Millettia pinnata) contain oils rich in C18:1 fatty acid, making it useful for the manufacture of biodiesel and other liquid fuels. Preliminary assessments of growth and seed yield in Australia have been promising. However, there is a pressing need to synthesise practical experience and existing fragmented research and to use this to underpin a well-founded and co-ordinated research strategy to support industry development, including better management of the risks associated with investment. This comprehensive review identifies opportunities for Pongamia in Australia and provides a snapshot of what is already known and the risks, uncertainties, and challenges based on published research, expert knowledge, and industry experience. We conclude that whilst there are major gaps in fundamental understanding of the limitations to growth of Pongamia in Australia, there is sufficient evidence indicating the potential of Pongamia as a feedstock for production of biofuel to warrant investment into a structured research and development program over the next decade. We identify ten critical research elements and propose a comprehensive research approach that links molecular level genetic research, paddock scale agronomic studies, landscape scale investigations, and new production systems and value chains into a range of aspects of sustainability.

Assessing possible impacts of climate change on species important for forestry in Vietnam

The likely effects on two tree species of a range of scenarios of climatic and atmospheric change expected by the year 2050 are investigated using a climatic mapping program, a simple simulation model and a process-based simulation model. Styrax tonkinensis is a native species for which relatively little information is available. Acacia mangium is an introduced species, which is important for pulp production in several other countries, and for which there is considerable information for growth and utilization. A climatic mapping program is used to show areas which may be suitable for these species under present and predicted conditions. Two simulation models are used to investigate likely effects on productivity of the two species for a range of climatic change scenarios for Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. The estimated changes in production are predicted to be relatively small, though uncertainities associated with the simulations are quite high. However, the models highlight areas where more data are needed and also suggest some key regions in Vietnam which would be worth monitoring to detect early signs of the effects of climatic and atmospheric change.

Incorporation of indices of annual climatic variation into growth models for Pinus radiata

Abstract Data for Pinus radiata D. Don grown in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT) are used to show that annual indices of growth potential can be successfully incorporated into Schumacher projection models of stand basal area growth. Significant reductions in the error mean squares of the models can be obtained by including a simple index such as annual rainfall, but best results were obtained by incorporating estimates of photosynthesis simulated with a detailed process-based model: BIOMASS. In the ACT it was sufficient to estimate the growth index at a single location within the forest estate. Reductions in error mean squares due to the incorporation of temporal variables were about twice as large as those obtained by incorporating spatial variables such as geological substrate, site index or indices of soil development. The gains due to the two classes of variables were approximately additive. The new models improve the descriptive power of the Schumacher model. Short-term predictions made with the models should be more accurate than those obtained with the traditional model and should be particularly useful for updating stand inventories. The new models would be most applicable to regions where there is substantial variation in climatic factors between growing seasons and where the object species is responsive to those factors. A key result is that the temporal variation in the growth indices need not be assessed at each sample plot used to calibrate the model nor each inventory plot to which the model is applied. The temporal variation is regional in nature; consequently, it can be characterised by studies at a relatively few number of sites. This leads the way to new avenues for forest modelling.

Assessing vulnerable areas for Puccinia psidii (eucalyptus rust) in Australia

This research note describes a model prepared before the arrival of Puccinia psidii in Australia that identifies areas where the rust disease may be most likely to occur. The initial spread of P. psidii since April 2010 has corresponded well with the highly vulnerable areas identified in eastern coastal Australia.

A new world climatic mapping program to assist species selection

Abstract A world climatic mapping program (WORLD) is described which can indicate locations satisfying up to six climatic criteria important for tree species selection. The Windows-based program makes use of data derived from a global 0.5°×0.5° dataset developed by interpolation. It includes data for 67 477 locations and provides world-wide coverage of major landmasses excluding Antarctica. As an example application, a published description of climatic requirements for Pinus taeda (loblolly pine) is evaluated and improved.

Risks Affecting Breeding Objectives for radiata pine in Australia

Summary This paper examines the effects of climatic and biotic risks—drought, Essigella aphid, Dothistroma needle blight and Fusarium pitch canker—on the Pinus radiata production system in Australia. These risks were examined in relation to climatic variables in order to develop ‘hazard ratings’ for planting sites. Bio-economic models were developed to link the risks with the established breeding objective for solid wood production. Economic weights were derived for resistance traits that can be used in index selection for breeding and deployment. Under one scenario, drought-affected sites can achieve an internal rate of return of >7.0% only if the land rental is sufficiently low, that is >

Balancing bioenergy and biosecurity policies: estimating current and future climate suitability patterns for a bioenergy crop

25 ha−1 y−1, but replanting costs and volume losses due to mortality can be significant. An average of 13.5% defoliation caused by Essigella aphid would reduce volume growth over a rotation period by about 10%. A modest increase in profitability can be achieved through deployment of Essigella-resistant genotypes. Reduction of volume growth by Dothistroma defoliation at an early age (4–10 y) had a relatively small effect on subsequent yield reduction. At a site with a high level of infection, however, the profitability of improving Dothistroma resistance was similar to that for improving growth on uninfected sites. The economic importance of risk traits relative to MAI over the entire radiata pine plantation estate was generally low: 4% for pine aphid, 0.6% for needle blight and 1.3% for pitch canker resistance. Essigella pine aphid is the most important pest currently affecting the productivity of radiata pine plantations in Australia.

A spatial assessment of potential biomass for bioenergy in Australia in 2010, and possible expansion by 2030 and 2050.

In an apparent paradox, bioenergy crops offer potential benefits to a world adjusting to the challenges of climate change and declining fossil fuel stocks, as well as potential ecological and economic threats resulting from biological invasions. In considering this paradox it is important to understand that benefits and threats may not always be apparent in equal measure throughout the potential range of each candidate biofuel species. In some environments, a species could potentially produce valuable biological materials without posing a significant invasion threat. In this study, we develop a bioclimatic niche model for a candidate biofuel crop, Millettia pinnata, and apply the model to different climatic and irrigation scenarios to estimate the current and future patterns of climate suitability for its growth and naturalization. We use Australia as a case study for interpreting the niche model in terms that may be informative for both biofuels proponents and biosecurity regulators to plan management programmes that reflect the invasive potential in different areas. The model suggests that suitable growing conditions for M. pinnata in Australia are naturally restricted to the moist and semimoist tropics. Irrigation can extend the suitable growing conditions more widely throughout the tropics, and into more arid regions. Under future climate scenarios, suitable growing conditions for M. pinnata under natural rainfall contract towards the east coast, and extend southward into the subtropics. With irrigation, M. pinnata appears to have the potential in the future to naturalize across much of Australia. The bioclimatic modelling method demonstrated here is comparatively quick and easy, and can produce a rich array of data products to inform the interests of both bioenergy proponents and biosecurity regulators. We show how this modelling can support the development of spatially explicit biosecurity policies designed to manage invasion risks in a manner that balances bioenergy and biosecurity concerns.

Biomass for aviation fuel production in the Fitzroy Basin, Queensland: a preliminary assessment of native and plantation forest potential

This paper provides spatial estimates of potentially available biomass for bioenergy in Australia in 2010, 2030 and 2050 (under clearly stated assumptions) for the following biomass sources: crop stubble, native grasses, pulpwood and residues (created either during forest harvesting or wood processing) from plantations and native forests, bagasse, organic municipal solid waste and new short‐rotation tree crops. For each biomass type, we estimated annual potential availability at the finest scale possible with readily accessible data, and then aggregated to make estimates for each of 60 Statistical Divisions (administrative areas) across Australia. The potentially available lignocellulosic biomass is estimated at approximately 80 Mt per year, with the major contributors of crop stubble (27.7 Mt per year), grasses (19.7 Mt per year) and forest plantations (10.9 Mt per year). Over the next 20–40 years, total potentially available biomass could increase to 100–115 Mt per year, with new plantings of short‐rotation trees being the major source of the increase (14.7 Mt per year by 2030 and 29.3 Mt per year by 2050). We exclude oilseeds, algae and ‘regrowth’, that is woody vegetation naturally regenerating on previously cleared land, which may be important in several regions of Australia (Australian Forestry 77, 2014, 1; Global Change Biology Bioenergy 7, 2015, 497). We briefly discuss some of the challenges to providing a reliable and sustainable supply of the large amounts of biomass required to build a bioenergy industry of significant scale. More detailed regional analyses, including of the costs of delivered biomass, logistics and economics of harvest, transport and storage, competing markets for biomass and a full assessment of the sustainability of production are needed to underpin investment in specific conversion facilities (e.g. Opportunities for forest bioenergy: An assessment of the environmental and economic opportunities and constraints associated with bioenergy production from biomass resources in two prospective regions of Australia, 2011a).