Tomáš Václavík

Landscape epidemiology of emerging infectious diseases in natural and human-altered ecosystems

A central challenge to studying emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) is a landscape dilemma: Our best empirical understanding of disease dynamics occurs at local scales, whereas pathogen invasions and management occur over broad spatial extents. The burgeoning field of landscape epidemiology integrates concepts and approaches from disease ecology with the macroscale lens of landscape ecology, enabling examination of disease across spatiotemporal scales in complex environmental settings. We review the state of the field and describe analytical frontiers that show promise for advancement, focusing on natural and human-altered ecosystems. Concepts fundamental to practicing landscape epidemiology are discussed, including spatial scale, static versus dynamic modeling, spatially implicit versus explicit approaches, selection of ecologically meaningful variables, and inference versus prediction. We highlight studies that have advanced the field by incorporating multiscale analyses, landscape connectivity, and dynamic modeling. Future research directions include understanding disease as a component of interacting ecological disturbances, scaling up the ecological impacts of disease, and examining disease dynamics as a coupled human-natural system.

glUV: a global UV-B radiation data set for macroecological studies

Summary Macroecology has prospered in recent years due in part to the wide array of climatic data, such as those provided by the WorldClim and CliMond data sets, which has become available for research. However, important environmental variables have still been missing, including spatial data sets on UV-B radiation, an increasingly recognized driver of ecological processes. We developed a set of global UV-B surfaces (glUV) suitable to match common spatial scales in macroecology. Our data set is based on remotely sensed records from NASAs Ozone Monitoring Instrument (Aura-OMI). Following a similar approach as for the WorldClim and CliMond data sets, we processed daily UV-B measurements acquired over a period of eight years into monthly mean UV-B data and six ecologically meaningful UV-B variables with a 15-arc minute resolution. These bioclimatic variables represent Annual Mean UV-B, UV-B Seasonality, Mean UV-B of Highest Month, Mean UV-B of Lowest Month, Sum of Monthly Mean UV-B during Highest Quarter and Sum of Monthly Mean UV-B during Lowest Quarter. We correlated our data sets with selected variables of existing bioclimatic surfaces for land and with Terra–MODIS Sea Surface Temperature for ocean regions to test for relations to known gradients and patterns. UV-B surfaces showed a distinct seasonal variance at a global scale, while the intensity of UV-B radiation decreased towards higher latitudes and was modified by topographic and climatic heterogeneity. UV-B surfaces were correlated with global mean temperature and annual mean radiation data, but exhibited variable spatial associations across the globe. UV-B surfaces were otherwise widely independent of existing bioclimatic surfaces. Our data set provides new climatological information relevant for macroecological analyses. As UV-B is a known driver of numerous biological patterns and processes, our data set offers the potential to generate a better understanding of these dynamics in macroecology, biogeography, global change research and beyond. The glUV data set containing monthly mean UV-B data and six derived UV-B surfaces is freely available for download at: http://www.ufz.de/gluv.

Assessing ecosystem services for informing land-use decisions: a problem-oriented approach

Assessments of ecosystem services (ES), that aim at informing decisions on land management, are increasing in number around the globe. Despite selected success stories, evidence for ES information being used in decision making is weak, partly because ES assessments are found to fall short in targeting information needs by decision makers. To improve their applicability in practice, we compared existing concepts of ES assessments with focus on informing land use decisions and identified opportunities for enhancing the relevance of ES assessments for decision making. In a process of codesign, building on experience of four projects in Brazil, China, Madagascar, and Vietnam, we developed a step-wise approach for better targeting ES assessments toward information needs in land use decisions. Our problem-oriented approach aims at (1) structuring ES information according to land use problems identified by stakeholders, (2) targeting context-specific ES information needs by decision makers, and (3) assessing relevant management options. We demonstrate how our approach contributes to making ES assessments more policy relevant and enhances the application of ES assessments as a tool for decision support.

Addressing future trade-offs between biodiversity and cropland expansion to improve food security

Abstract Potential trade-offs between providing sufficient food for a growing human population in the future and sustaining ecosystems and their services are driven by various biophysical and socio-economic parameters at different scales. In this study, we investigate these trade-offs by using a three-step interdisciplinary approach. We examine (1) how the expected global cropland expansion might affect food security in terms of agricultural production and prices, (2) where natural conditions are suitable for cropland expansion under changing climate conditions, and (3) whether this potential conversion to cropland would affect areas of high biodiversity value or conservation importance. Our results show that on the one hand, allowing the expansion of cropland generally results in an improved food security not only in regions where crop production rises, but also in net importing countries such as India and China. On the other hand, the estimated cropland expansion could take place in many highly biodiverse regions, pointing out the need for spatially detailed and context-specific assessments to understand the possible outcomes of different food security strategies. Our multidisciplinary approach is relevant with respect to the Sustainable Development Goals for implementing and enforcing sustainable pathways for increasing agricultural production, and ensuring food security while conserving biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Investigating potential transferability of place-based research in land system science

Much of our knowledge about land use and ecosystem services in interrelated social-ecological systems is derived fromplace-based research.While local and regional case studies provide valuable insights, it is often unclear how relevant this research is beyond the study areas. Drawing generalized conclusions about practical solutions to landmanagement from local observations and formulating hypotheses applicable to other places in the world requires that we identify patterns of land systems that are similar to those represented by the case study. Here, we utilize the previously developed concept of land system archetypes to investigate potential transferability of research from twelve regional projects implemented in a large joint research framework that focus on issues of sustainable landmanagement across four continents. For each project, we characterize its project archetype, i.e. the unique land system based on a synthesis ofmore than 30 datasets of land-use intensity, environmental conditions and socioeconomic indicators.We estimate the transferability potential of project research by calculating the statistical similarity of locations across the world to the project archetype, assuming higher transferability potentials in locations with similar land system characteristics. Results show that areas with high transferability potentials are typically clustered around project sites but for some case studies can be found in regions that are geographically distant, especially when values of considered variables are close to the globalmean or where the project archetype is driven by large-scale environmental or socioeconomic conditions. Using specific examples from the local case studies, we highlight themerit of our approach and discuss the differences between local realities and information captured in global datasets. The proposedmethod provides a blueprint for large research programs to assess potential transferability of place-based studies to other geographical areas and to indicate possible gaps in research efforts. OPEN ACCESS

The LEGATO cross-disciplinary integrated ecosystem service research framework: an example of integrating research results from the analysis of global change impacts and the social, cultural and economic system dynamics of irrigated rice production

AbstractIn a cross-disciplinary project (LEGATO) combining inter- and transdisciplinary methods, we quantify the dependency of rice-dominated socio-ecological systems on ecosystem functions (ESF) and the ecosystem services (ESS) the integrated system provides. In the collaboration of a large team including geo- and bioscientists, economists, political and cultural scientists, the mutual influences of the biological, climate and soil conditions of the agricultural area and its surrounding natural landscape have been analysed. One focus was on sociocultural and economic backgrounds, another on local as well as regional land use intensity and biodiversity, and the potential impacts of future climate and land use change. LEGATO analysed characteristic elements of three service strands defined by the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA): (a) provisioning services: nutrient cycling and crop production; (b) regulating services: biocontrol and pollination; and (c) cultural services: cultural identity and aesthetics. However, in line with much of the current ESS literature, what the MA called supporting services is treated as ESF within LEGATO. As a core output, LEGATO developed generally applicable principles of ecological engineering (EE), suitable for application in the context of future climate and land use change. EE is an emerging discipline, concerned with the design, monitoring and construction of ecosystems and aims at developing strategies to optimise ecosystem services through exploiting natural regulation mechanisms instead of suppressing them. Along these lines LEGATO also aims to create the knowledge base for decision-making for sustainable land management and livelihoods, including the provision of the corresponding governance and management strategies, technologies and system solutions.

Go with the flow: geospatial analytics to quantify hydrologic landscape connectivity for passively dispersed microorganisms

Understanding the diverse ways that landscape connectivity influences the distribution of microbial species is central to managing the spread and persistence of numerous biological invasions. Here, we use geospatial analytics to examine the degree to which the hydrologic connectivity of landscapes influences the transport of passively dispersed microbes, using the invasive plant pathogen Phytophthora ramorum as a case study. Pathogen occurrence was analyzed at 280 stream baiting stations across a range of watersheds – exposed to variable inoculum pressure – in California over a 7-year period (2004–2010). Using logistic regression, we modeled the probability of pathogen occurrence at a baiting station based on nine environmental variables. We developed a novel geospatial approach to quantify the hydrologic connectivity of host vegetation and inoculum pressure derived from least cost distance analyses in each watershed. We also examined the influence of local environmental conditions within the immediate neighborhood of a baiting station. Over the course of the sampling period, the pathogen was detected at 67 baiting stations associated with coastal watersheds with mild climate conditions, steep slopes, and higher levels of inoculum pressure. At the watershed scale, hydrologic landscape connectivity was a key predictor of pathogen occurrence in streams after accounting for variation in climate and exposure to inoculum. This study illustrates a geospatial approach to modeling the degree to which hydrologic systems play a role in shaping landscape structures conducive for the transport of passively dispersed microbes in heterogeneous watersheds.

Rice ecosystem services in South-east Asia

Josef Settele · Kong Luen Heong · Ingolf Kühn · Stefan Klotz · Joachim H. Spangenberg · Gertrudo Arida · Alexis Beaurepaire · Silke Beck · Erwin Bergmeier · Benjamin Burkhard · Roland Brandl · Jesus Victor Bustamante · Adam Butler · Jimmy Cabbigat · Xuan Canh Le · Josie Lynn A. Catindig · Van Chien Ho · Quoc Cuong Le · Kinh Bac Dang · Monina Escalada · Christophe Dominik · Markus Franzén · Oliver Fried · Christoph Görg · Volker Grescho · Sabine Grossmann · Geoff M. Gurr · Buyung A. R. Hadi · Huu Hai Le · Alexander Harpke · Annika L. Hass · Norbert Hirneisen · Finbarr G. Horgan · Stefan Hotes · Yuzuru Isoda · Reinhold Jahn · Helen Kettle · Anika Klotzbücher · Thimo Klotzbücher · Fanny Langerwisch · Wai‐Hong Loke · Yu‐Pin Lin · Zhongxian Lu · Keng‐Yeang Lum · Damasa B. Magcale‐Macandog · Glenn Marion · Leonardo Marquez · Felix Müller · Hung Manh Nguyen · Quynh Anh Nguyen · Van Sinh Nguyen · Jürgen Ott · Lyubomir Penev · Hong Thai Pham · Nico Radermacher · Beatriz Rodriguez‐Labajos · Christina Sann · Cornelia Sattler · Martin Schädler · Stefan Scheu · Anja Schmidt · Julian Schrader · Oliver Schweiger · Ralf Seppelt · Kukiat Soitong · Pavel Stoev · Susanne Stoll‐Kleemann · Vera Tekken · Kirsten Thonicke · Bianca Tilliger · Kai Tobias · Y. Andi Trisyono · Thanh Truong Dao · Teja Tscharntke · Quang Tuan Le · Manfred Türke · Tomáš Václavík · Doris Vetterlein · Sylvia ’Bong’ Villareal · Kim Chi Vu · Quynh Vu · Wolfgang W. Weisser · Catrin Westphal · Zengrong Zhu · Martin Wiemers

Landscape composition, configuration, and trophic interactions shape arthropod communities in rice agroecosystems

1. Increasing landscape heterogeneity of agroecosystems can enhance natural enemy populations and promote biological control. However, little is known about the multi-scale effects of landscape heterogeneity on arthropod communities in rice agroecosystems, especially in combination with trophic interactions. A cc ep te d A rt ic le This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. 2. We examined for the first time how landscape heterogeneity, measured by four independent metrics of landscape composition and configuration at three spatial scales, affected species abundance and species richness of rice arthropods within four functional groups and the abundance of the most common species at 28 sites in the Philippines. We additionally examined the influence of trophic interactions among these functional groups. 3. We found that both the compositional and configurational landscape heterogeneity in combination with trophic interactions determined the structure of rice-arthropod communities. Herbivore abundance decreased with increasing landscape diversity. The abundance of parasitoids and species richness of both parasitoids and predators increased with the structural connectivity of rice bunds. Fragmentation of the rice landscape had a clear negative effect on most arthropod groups, except for highly mobile predatory arthropods. Abundance of common predators and detritivore species decreased with increasing complexity in the shape of rice patches. 4. Trophic interactions, measured as the abundance of prey, outweighed the importance of landscape heterogeneity for predators. In contrast, parasitoids responded positively to configurational landscape heterogeneity but were unaffected by prey abundance. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our research shows how landscape heterogeneity and trophic interactions have different effects on different functional groups. While predator abundance was solely driven by the availability of prey, all other functional groups in the rice-arthropod community were significantly affected by the composition and configuration of surrounding landscape features. Landscape management aiming to improve biodiversity and biological control in rice agroecosystems should promote a diversity of land uses and habitat types within 100–300 m radii to reduce the presence of pests. Management practices should also focus on maintaining smaller rice patches and the structural connectivity of rice bunds to enhance populations of the natural enemies of rice pests. Future research should focus on the temporal and spatial manipulation of rice fields to maximize the effects of biological control.

Searching for Win–Win Archetypes in the Food–Biodiversity Challenge: A Response to Fischer et al.

Nevertheless, we are unconvinced by their claim of a ‘new wilderness paradox’ in which increasingly automated curation of wild places produces a ‘stronger need for human supervision’. It is true that deep reinforcement learning systems can learn to do surprising things – many of them with undesirable outcomes. Yet the same is true of many well-intentioned human efforts to manage environments, like the once-common strategy of suppressing fires and other disturbances [3]. It is hard to see why the issues of bias and discrimination highlighted by Galaz and Mouazen are any different in automated systems than in those of any other human enterprise.