Tomasz Piskorski

Securitization and Distressed Loan Renegotiation: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Crisis

We examine whether securitization impacts renegotiation decisions of loan servicers, focusing on their decision to foreclose a delinquent loan. Conditional on a loan becoming seriously delinquent, we find a significantly lower foreclosure rate associated with bank-held loans when compared to similar securitized loans: across various specifications and origination vintages, the foreclosure rate of delinquent bank-held loans is 3% to 7% lower in absolute terms (13% to 32% in relative terms). There is a substantial heterogeneity in these effects with large effects among borrowers with better credit quality and small effects among lower quality borrowers. A quasi-experiment that exploits a plausibly exogenous variation in securitization status of a delinquent loan confirms these results.

Policy Intervention in Debt Renegotiation: Evidence from the Home Affordable Modification Program

We evaluate the effects of the 2009 Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) that provided intermediaries with sizeable financial incentives to renegotiate mortgages. HAMP increased intensity of renegotiations and prevented substantial number of foreclosures but reached just one-third of its targeted indebted households. This shortfall was in large part due to low renegotiation intensity of a few large intermediaries and was driven by intermediary-specific factors. Exploiting regional variation in the intensity of program implementation by intermediaries suggests that the program was associated with lower rate of foreclosures, consumer debt delinquencies, house price declines, and an increase in durable spending.

Risky Human Capital and Deferred Capital Income Taxation

We study the structure of optimal wedges and capital taxes in a dynamic Mirrlees economy with endogenous distribution of skills. Human capital is a private, stochastic state variable that drives the skill process of each individual. Building on the findings of the labor literature, we construct a tractable life-cycle model of human capital evolution with risky investment and stochastic depreciation. In this setting, we demonstrate the optimality of (a) a human capital premium, i.e., an excess return on human capital relative to physical capital, (b) a large intertemporal wedge early in the life-cycle, and (c) a non-zero intratemporal wedge even at the top of the skill distribution at all dates except the last date in the life-cycle. The main implication for the structure of optimal linear capital taxes is the necessity of deferred taxation of physical capital. The average marginal tax rate on physical capital held in every period is zero in present value. However, expected capital tax payments do not equal zero in every period. Necessarily, agents face negative expected capital tax payments early in the life-cycle and positive expected capital tax payments late in the life-cycle.

U.S. Domestic Money, Inflation and Output

Recent empirical research found that the strong short-term relationship between monetary aggregates and US real output and inflation, as outlined in the classical study by M. Friedman and Schwartz, mostly disappeared since the early 1980s. In the light of the B. Friedman and Kuttner (1992) information value approach, we reevaluate the vanishing relationship between US monetary aggregates and these macroeconomic fundamentals by taking into account the international currency feature of the US dollar. In practice, by using official US data for foreign flows constructed by Porter and Judson (1996) we find that domestic money (currency component of M1 corrected for the foreign holdings of dollars) contains valuable information about future movements of US real output and inflation. Statistical evidence here provided thus suggests that the Friedman and Schwartzs stylized facts can be reestablished once the focus of analysis is back on the domestic monetary aggregates.

U.S. domestic money, inflation and output

Abstract Recent empirical research documents that the strong short-term relationship between U.S. monetary aggregates on one side and inflation and real output on the other has mostly disappeared since the early 1980s. Using the direct estimate of flows of U.S. dollars abroad we find that domestic money (currency corrected for the foreign holdings of dollars) contains valuable information about future movements of U.S. inflation and real output. Statistical evidence suggests that the Friedman–Schwartz stylized facts can be reestablished once the focus of analysis is back on the correct measure of domestic monetary aggregates.

Mortgage Refinancing, Consumer Spending, and Competition: Evidence from the Home Affordable Refinancing Program

Using loan-level mortgage data merged with consumer credit records, we examine the ability of the government to impact mortgage refinancing activity and spur consumption by focusing on the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP). The policy relaxed housing equity constraints by extending government credit guarantee on insufficiently collateralized mortgages refinanced by intermediaries. Difference-in-difference tests based on program eligibility criteria reveal a significant increase in refinancing activity by HARP. More than three million eligible borrowers with primarily fixed-rate mortgages refinanced under HARP, receiving an average reduction of 1.45% in interest rate that amounts to

Optimal Dynamic Contracts with Moral Hazard and Costly Monitoring

3,000 in annual savings. Durable spending by borrowers increased significantly after refinancing and regions more exposed to the program saw a relative increase in non-durable and durable consumer spending, a decline in foreclosure rates, and faster recovery in house prices. A variety of identification strategies suggest that competitive frictions in the refinancing market partly hampered the program’s impact: the take-up rate and annual savings among those who refinanced were reduced by 10% to 20%. These effects were amplified for the most indebted borrowers, the key target of the program. These findings have implications for future policy interventions, pass-through of monetary policy through household balance-sheets and design of the mortgage market.

Fintech, Regulatory Arbitrage, and the Rise of Shadow Banks

We introduce a tractable dynamic monitoring technology into a continuous-time moral-hazard problem and study the optimal long-term contract between principal and agent. Monitoring adds value by allowing the principal to reduce the intensity of performance-based incentives, reducing the likelihood of costly termination. We present a novel characterization of optimal dynamic incentive provision when performance-based incentives may decline continuously to zero. Termination happens in equilibrium only if its costs are relatively low. In general, the intensity of both monitoring and performance-based compensation can be non-monotonic functions of the quality of past performance. Our results can also help explain puzzling empirical findings on the relationship between performance history and future pay-performance sensitivity and on the linkage between termination, performance, and monitoring. We also discuss implications of our model for optimal security design and endogenous financing constraints.

Banking the Unbanked: What Do 255 Million New Bank Accounts Reveal about Financial Access?

Shadow bank market share in residential mortgage origination nearly doubled from 2007-2015, with particularly dramatic growth among online “fintech�? lenders. We study how two forces, regulatory differences and technological advantages, contributed to this growth. Difference in difference tests exploiting geographical heterogeneity induced by four specific increases in regulatory burden–capital requirements, mortgage servicing rights, mortgage-related lawsuits, and the movement of supervision to Office of Comptroller and Currency following closure of the Office of Thrift Supervision--all reveal that traditional banks contracted in markets where they faced more regulatory constraints; shadow banks partially filled these gaps. Fintech lenders appear to offer a higher quality product and charge a premium of 14-16 basis points. Relative to other lenders, they seem to use different information to set interest rates. A quantitative model of mortgage lending suggests that regulation accounts for roughly 60% of shadow bank growth, while technology accounts for roughly 30%.

Bank Balance Sheet Capacity and the Limits of Shadow Banks

In this ongoing study, we use the largest financial inclusion program in the world to study the role of financial inclusion on the unbanked and the real economy. Using administrative account level micro data, we find that the program led to 255 million new bank account openings in India (as of November 2016). About 77% of the new accounts maintain a positive balance and usage increases over time with inward and outward remittances being the most common transaction performed by the individuals. While the average usage remains initially quite infrequent, the usage patterns under the program gradually converge over time to those of similar households who had prior access to formal banking products. This evidence is consistent with learning by individuals that results in an increase in usage over time as they gain familiarity with banking services. Exploiting regional variation in ex-ante financial access, we find an increase in lending and defaults on new loans in regions with low ex-ante access to banking services. These results are consistent with banks catering to the new demand for formal banking credit by previously unbanked borrowers.