Torbjörn Jansson

Ex ante impact assessment of policies affecting land use, Part B: application of the analytical framework

The use of science-based tools for impact assessment has increasingly gained focus in addressing the complexity of interactions between environment, society, and economy. For integrated assessment of policies affecting land use, an analytical framework was developed. The aim of our work was to apply the analytical framework for specific scenario cases and in combination with quantitative and qualitative application methods. The analytical framework was tested for two cases involving the ex ante impact assessment of: (1) a European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) financial reform scenario employing a modeling approach and combined with a comprehensive indicator analysis and valuation; and (2) a regional bioenergy policy scenario, employing a fully participatory approach. The results showed that European land use in general is less sensitive to changes in the Common Agricultural Policy, but in the context of regions there can be significant impacts on the functions of land use. In general, the implementation of the analytical framework for impact assessment proved to be doable with both methods, i.e., with the quantitative modeling and with the qualitative participatory approach. A key advantage of using the system of linked quantitative models is that it makes possible the simultaneous consideration of all relevant sectors of the economy without abstaining from a great level of detail for sectors of particular interest. Other advantages lie in the incontestable character of the results. Based on neutral, existing data with a fixed set of settings and regions, an absolute comparability and reproducibility throughout Europe can be maintained. Analyzing the pros and cons of both approaches showed that they could be used complementarily rather than be seen as competing alternatives.

Transfer into decision support: The Sustainability Impact Assessment Tool (SIAT)

This paper focuses on the development process and performance of the integrated meta-model Sustainability Impact Assessment Tool (SIAT), whose appropriateness for Sustainability Impact Assessment is finally discussed.

Agricultural GHG emissions in the EU: an exploratory economic assessment of mitigation policy options

The main objective of this report is to assess the GHG emission reduction potential of a selected number of policy options and to quantify related production and economic impacts for the agricultural sector in the EU. Therefore the possible future evolution of agricultural GHG emissions in the EU are assessed through the simulation of scenarios including expected macro- and micro-economic changes. The proposed mitigation policy scenarios are all exploratory, i.e. it is intended to explore what could happen if policies would be implemented that explicitly force farmers in the EU-27 to reach certain GHG emission reduction targets. It has to be stressed that all policy scenarios are rather theoretical and hypothetical and do not necessarily reflect mitigation policies that are already agreed on, or are under formal discussion.

An economic assessment of GHG mitigation policy options for EU agriculture

The report presents an overview of the historical and projected development of agricultural GHG emissions in the EU. The major objective of the report is to present the improvements made in the CAPRI modelling system with respect to GHG emission accounting and especially regarding the implementation of endogenous technological mitigation options. Furthermore, the CAPRI model was applied to provide a quantitative assessment of illustrative GHG mitigation policy options in the agricultural sector, and their production and economic implications.

Regional Economic Analysis of Milk Quota Reform in the EU

This report is based on the outcome of a study carried out by the European Commissions Joint Research Centre - Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS, Spain) in cooperation with EuroCARE (Bonn, Germany) and the collaboration of the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI, the Netherlands) and the Catholic University of the Sacred Heart (Unicatt, Italy). The report provides an economic impact assessment of possible implications of the Health Check of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), with an explicit focus on regional effects of a milk quota abolition in the EU-27 in the year 2015. For the analysis the CAPRI model was updated with econometric estimates of milk quota rents at regional level and simulation results are presented for the year 2020. The detailed spatial resolution allows identifying regions where economic changes are larger than visible from aggregated impacts at Member State or European level.

Chapter 1 Estimation of Parameters of Constrained Optimization Models

Estimating parameters of constrained optimization models in a consistent way requires a different set of methods than what is available in a typical econometric toolkit. We identify three complications likely to arise in this context, and suggest solutions to those complications: (i) the bi-level programming character, (ii) ill-posedness, and (iii) derivation of estimator properties. The solutions suggested involve a combination of numerical techniques and utilization of out-of-sample information through Bayesian techniques. The proposed framework is also suitable for typical empirical problems arising in trade analysis such as the estimation of trade equilibrium models and data balancing exercises.