Trevelyan J. McKinley

Modelling within-host spatiotemporal dynamics of invasive bacterial disease.

Mechanistic determinants of bacterial growth, death, and spread within mammalian hosts cannot be fully resolved studying a single bacterial population. They are also currently poorly understood. Here, we report on the application of sophisticated experimental approaches to map spatiotemporal population dynamics of bacteria during an infection. We analyzed heterogeneous traits of simultaneous infections with tagged Salmonella enterica populations (wild-type isogenic tagged strains [WITS]) in wild-type and gene-targeted mice. WITS are phenotypically identical but can be distinguished and enumerated by quantitative PCR, making it possible, using probabilistic models, to estimate bacterial death rate based on the disappearance of strains through time. This multidisciplinary approach allowed us to establish the timing, relative occurrence, and immune control of key infection parameters in a true host–pathogen combination. Our analyses support a model in which shortly after infection, concomitant death and rapid bacterial replication lead to the establishment of independent bacterial subpopulations in different organs, a process controlled by host antimicrobial mechanisms. Later, decreased microbial mortality leads to an exponential increase in the number of bacteria that spread locally, with subsequent mixing of bacteria between organs via bacteraemia and further stochastic selection. This approach provides us with an unprecedented outlook on the pathogenesis of S. enterica infections, illustrating the complex spatial and stochastic effects that drive an infectious disease. The application of the novel method that we present in appropriate and diverse host–pathogen combinations, together with modelling of the data that result, will facilitate a comprehensive view of the spatial and stochastic nature of within-host dynamics.

Suppression of Avian Influenza Transmission in Genetically Modified Chickens

Transgenic birds expressing a short hairpin RNA that blocks viral polymerase hinder influenza transmission. Infection of chickens with avian influenza virus poses a global threat to both poultry production and human health that is not adequately controlled by vaccination or by biosecurity measures. A novel alternative strategy is to develop chickens that are genetically resistant to infection. We generated transgenic chickens expressing a short-hairpin RNA designed to function as a decoy that inhibits and blocks influenza virus polymerase and hence interferes with virus propagation. Susceptibility to primary challenge with highly pathogenic avian influenza virus and onward transmission dynamics were determined. Although the transgenic birds succumbed to the initial experimental challenge, onward transmission to both transgenic and nontransgenic birds was prevented.

Elucidation of the MD-2/TLR4 Interface Required for Signaling by Lipid IVa

LPS signals through a membrane bound-complex of the lipid binding protein MD-2 and the receptor TLR4. In this study we identify discrete regions in both MD-2 and TLR4 that are required for signaling by lipid IVa, an LPS derivative that is an agonist in horse but an antagonist in humans. We show that changes in the electrostatic surface potential of both MD-2 and TLR4 are required in order that lipid IVa can induce signaling. In MD-2, replacing horse residues 57–66 and 82–89 with the equivalent human residues confers a level of constitutive activity on horse MD-2, suggesting that conformational switching in this protein is likely to be important in ligand-induced activation of MD-2/TLR4. We identify leucine-rich repeat 14 in the C terminus of TLR4 as essential for lipid IVa activation of MD-2/TLR4. Remarkably, we identify a single residue in the glycan-free flank of the horse TLR4 solenoid that confers the ability to signal in response to lipid IVa. These results suggest a mechanism of signaling that involves crosslinking mediated by both MD-2-receptor and receptor-receptor contacts in a model that shows striking similarities to the recently published structure (Cell 130: 1071–1082) of the ligand-bound TLR1/2 ectodomain heterodimer.

Intra- and Interhost Evolutionary Dynamics of Equine Influenza Virus

ABSTRACT Determining the evolutionary basis of cross-species transmission and immune evasion is key to understanding the mechanisms that control the emergence of either new viruses or novel antigenic variants with pandemic potential. The hemagglutinin glycoprotein of influenza A viruses is a critical host range determinant and a major target of neutralizing antibodies. Equine influenza virus (EIV) is a significant pathogen of the horse that causes periodical outbreaks of disease even in populations with high vaccination coverage. EIV has also jumped the species barrier and emerged as a novel respiratory pathogen in dogs, canine influenza virus. We studied the dynamics of equine influenza virus evolution in horses at the intrahost level and how this evolutionary process is affected by interhost transmission in a natural setting. To this end, we performed clonal sequencing of the hemagglutinin 1 gene derived from individual animals at different times postinfection. Our results show that despite the population consensus sequence remaining invariant, genetically distinct subpopulations persist during the course of infection and are also transmitted, with some variants likely to change antigenicity. We also detected a natural case of mixed infection in an animal infected during an outbreak of equine influenza, raising the possibility of reassortment between different strains of virus. In sum, our data suggest that transmission bottlenecks may not be as narrow as originally perceived and that the genetic diversity required to adapt to new host species may be partially present in the donor host and potentially transmitted to the recipient host.

Estimating the Hidden Burden of Bovine Tuberculosis in Great Britain

The number of cattle herds placed under movement restrictions in Great Britain (GB) due to the suspected presence of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) has progressively increased over the past 25 years despite an intensive and costly test-and-slaughter control program. Around 38% of herds that clear movement restrictions experience a recurrent incident (breakdown) within 24 months, suggesting that infection may be persisting within herds. Reactivity to tuberculin, the basis of diagnostic testing, is dependent on the time from infection. Thus, testing efficiency varies between outbreaks, depending on weight of transmission and cannot be directly estimated. In this paper, we use Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) to parameterize two within-herd transmission models within a rigorous inferential framework. Previous within-herd models of bTB have relied on ad-hoc methods of parameterization and used a single model structure (SORI) where animals are assumed to become detectable by testing before they become infectious. We study such a conventional within-herd model of bTB and an alternative model, motivated by recent animal challenge studies, where there is no period of epidemiological latency before animals become infectious (SOR). Under both models we estimate that cattle-to-cattle transmission rates are non-linearly density dependent. The basic reproductive ratio for our conventional within-herd model, estimated for scenarios with no statutory controls, increases from 1.5 (0.26–4.9; 95% CI) in a herd of 30 cattle up to 4.9 (0.99–14.0) in a herd of 400. Under this model we estimate that 50% (33–67) of recurrent breakdowns in Britain can be attributed to infection missed by tuberculin testing. However this figure falls to 24% (11–42) of recurrent breakdowns under our alternative model. Under both models the estimated extrinsic force of infection increases with the burden of missed infection. Hence, improved herd-level testing is unlikely to reduce recurrence unless this extrinsic infectious pressure is simultaneously addressed.

The demography of free-roaming dog populations and applications to disease and population control.

Summary Understanding the demography of domestic dog populations is essential for effective disease control, particularly of canine‐mediated rabies. Demographic data are also needed to plan effective population management. However, no study has comprehensively evaluated the contribution of demographic processes (i.e. births, deaths and movement) to variations in dog population size or density, or determined the factors that regulate these processes, including human factors. We report the results of a 3‐year cohort study of domestic dogs, which is the first to generate detailed data on the temporal variation of these demographic characteristics. The study was undertaken in two communities in each of Bali, Indonesia and Johannesburg, South Africa, in rabies‐endemic areas and where the majority of dogs were free‐roaming. None of the four communities had been engaged in any dog population management interventions by local authorities or animal welfare organizations. All identified dogs in the four communities were monitored individually throughout the study. We observed either no population growth or a progressive decline in population size during the study period. There was no clear evidence that population size was regulated through environmental resource constraints. Rather, almost all of the identified dogs were owned and fed regularly by their owners, consistent with population size regulated by human demand. Finally, a substantial fraction of the dogs originated from outside the population, entirely through the translocation of dogs by people, rather than from local births. These findings demonstrate that previously reported growth of dog populations is not a general phenomenon and challenge the widely held view that free‐roaming dogs are unowned and form closed populations. Synthesis and applications. These observations have broad implications for disease and population control. The accessibility of dogs for vaccination and evaluation through owners and the movement of dogs (some of them infected) by people will determine the viable options for disease control strategies. The impact of human factors on population dynamics will also influence the feasibility of annual vaccination campaigns to control rabies and population control through culling or sterilization. The complex relationship between dogs and people is critically important in the transmission and control of canine‐mediated rabies. For effective management, human factors must be considered in the development of disease and population control programmes.

Comparison of survival after surgical or medical treatment in dogs with a congenital portosystemic shunt

OBJECTIVE To compare survival of dogs with a congenital portosystemic shunt (CPSS) that received medical or surgical treatment. DESIGN Prospective cohort study. ANIMALS 126 client-owned dogs with a single CPSS. PROCEDURES Dogs were examined at 1 of 3 referral clinics, and a single CPSS was diagnosed in each. Dogs received medical or surgical treatment without regard to signalment, clinical signs, or results of hematologic or biochemical analysis. Survival data were analyzed via a Cox regression model. RESULTS During a median follow-up period of 579 days, 18 of 126 dogs died as a result of CPSS. Dogs treated via surgical intervention survived significantly longer than did those treated medically. Hazard ratio for medical versus surgical treatment of CPSS (for the treatment-only model) was 2.9 (95% confidence interval, 1.1 to 7.2). Age at CPSS diagnosis did not affect survival. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE Both medical and surgical treatment can be used to achieve long-term survival of dogs with CPSS, although results of statistical analysis supported the widely held belief that surgery is preferable to medical treatment. However, the study population consisted of dogs at referral clinics, which suggested that efficacy of medical treatment may have been underestimated. Although surgical intervention was associated with a better chance of long-term survival, medical management provided an acceptable first-line option. Age at examination did not affect survival, which implied that early surgical intervention was not essential. Dogs with CPSS that do not achieve acceptable resolution with medical treatment can subsequently be treated surgically.

Attenuated Salmonella Typhimurium Lacking the Pathogenicity Island-2 Type 3 Secretion System Grow to High Bacterial Numbers inside Phagocytes in Mice

Intracellular replication within specialized vacuoles and cell-to-cell spread in the tissue are essential for the virulence of Salmonella enterica. By observing infection dynamics at the single-cell level in vivo, we have discovered that the Salmonella pathogenicity island 2 (SPI-2) type 3 secretory system (T3SS) is dispensable for growth to high intracellular densities. This challenges the concept that intracellular replication absolutely requires proteins delivered by SPI-2 T3SS, which has been derived largely by inference from in vitro cell experiments and from unrefined measurement of net growth in mouse organs. Furthermore, we infer from our data that the SPI-2 T3SS mediates exit from infected cells, with consequent formation of new infection foci resulting in bacterial spread in the tissues. This suggests a new role for SPI-2 in vivo as a mediator of bacterial spread in the body. In addition, we demonstrate that very similar net growth rates of attenuated salmonellae in organs can be derived from very different underlying intracellular growth dynamics.

Dynamics of Salmonella infection of macrophages at the single cell level.

Salmonella enterica causes a range of diseases. Salmonellae are intracellular parasites of macrophages, and the control of bacteria within these cells is critical to surviving an infection. The dynamics of the bacteria invading, surviving, proliferating in and killing macrophages are central to disease pathogenesis. Fundamentally important parameters, however, such as the cellular infection rate, have not previously been calculated. We used two independent approaches to calculate the macrophage infection rate: mathematical modelling of Salmonella infection experiments, and analysis of real-time video microscopy of infection events. Cells repeatedly encounter salmonellae, with the bacteria often remain associated with the macrophage for more than ten seconds. Once Salmonella encounters a macrophage, the probability of that bacterium infecting the cell is remarkably low: less than 5%. The macrophage population is heterogeneous in terms of its susceptibility to the first infection event. Once infected, a macrophage can undergo further infection events, but these reinfection events occur at a lower rate than that of the primary infection.

Simulation-based Bayesian inference for epidemic models

A powerful and flexible method for fitting dynamic models to missing and censored data is to use the Bayesian paradigm via data-augmented Markov chain Monte Carlo (DA-MCMC). This samples from the joint posterior for the parameters and missing data, but requires high memory overheads for large-scale systems. In addition, designing efficient proposal distributions for the missing data is typically challenging. Pseudo-marginal methods instead integrate across the missing data using a Monte Carlo estimate for the likelihood, generated from multiple independent simulations from the model. These techniques can avoid the high memory requirements of DA-MCMC, and under certain conditions produce the exact marginal posterior distribution for parameters. A novel method is presented for implementing importance sampling for dynamic epidemic models, by conditioning the simulations on sets of validity criteria (based on the model structure) as well as the observed data. The flexibility of these techniques is illustrated using both removal time and final size data from an outbreak of smallpox. It is shown that these approaches can circumvent the need for reversible-jump MCMC, and can allow inference in situations where DA-MCMC is impossible due to computationally infeasible likelihoods.