Trude Storelvmo

Observational constraints on mixed-phase clouds imply higher climate sensitivity

A more sensitive climate system How much global average temperature eventually will rise depends on the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS), which relates atmospheric CO2 concentration to atmospheric temperature. For decades, ECS has been estimated to be between 2.0° and 4.6°C, with much of that uncertainty owing to the difficulty of establishing the effects of clouds on Earths energy budget. Tan et al. used satellite observations to constrain the radiative impact of mixed phase clouds. They conclude that ECS could be between 5.0° and 5.3°C—higher than suggested by most global climate models. Science, this issue p. 224 Weaknesses in cloud parameterizations may be causing global climate models to underestimate future warming. Global climate model (GCM) estimates of the equilibrium global mean surface temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2, measured by the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), range from 2.0° to 4.6°C. Clouds are among the leading causes of this uncertainty. Here we show that the ECS can be up to 1.3°C higher in simulations where mixed-phase clouds consisting of ice crystals and supercooled liquid droplets are constrained by global satellite observations. The higher ECS estimates are directly linked to a weakened cloud-phase feedback arising from a decreased cloud glaciation rate in a warmer climate. We point out the need for realistic representations of the supercooled liquid fraction in mixed-phase clouds in GCMs, given the sensitivity of the ECS to the cloud-phase feedback.

Aerosol Influence on Mixed-Phase Clouds in CAM-Oslo

Abstract A new treatment of mixed-phase cloud microphysics has been implemented in the general circulation model, Community Atmosphere Model (CAM)-Oslo, which combines the NCAR CAM2.0.1 and a detailed aerosol module. The new treatment takes into account the aerosol influence on ice phase initiation in stratiform clouds with temperatures between 0° and −40°C. Both supersaturation and cloud ice fraction, that is, the fraction of cloud ice compared to the total cloud water in a given grid box, are now determined based on a physical reasoning in which not only temperature but also the ambient aerosol concentration play a role. Included in the improved microphysics treatment is also a continuity equation for ice crystal number concentration. Ice crystal sources are heterogeneous and homogeneous freezing processes and ice multiplication. Sink terms are collection processes and precipitation formation, that is, melting and sublimation. Instead of using an idealized ice nuclei concentration for the heterogeneous ...

Global modeling of mixed‐phase clouds: The albedo and lifetime effects of aerosols

[1] We present a global modeling study of mixed‐phase clouds and have performed sensitivity simulations to explore the ways in which aerosol particles can affect this type of cloud. This study extends previous similar studies in that it takes into account not only the so‐called aerosol lifetime effects on mixed‐phase clouds but also aerosol effects on their albedo. Our findings generally agree with previous studies in that an increase in ice‐nucleating aerosol particles (IN) leads to a decreased cloud lifetime and therefore a warming of the Earth‐atmosphere system. However, an increase in IN will also generally decrease ice crystal sizes, thereby increasing the cloud albedo, which is analogous to the well‐established Twomey effect on liquid clouds. This decrease in ice crystal effective radii leads to an increase in cloud albedo and hence to a cooling that counteracts the lifetime effect of mixed‐phase clouds. Taking both the albedo and lifetime effects of mixed‐phase clouds into account, we find the net radiative forcing effect of an IN increase to be positive but small, which is in contrast to a much stronger warming that is found if the albedo effect is not taken into account. The latter has been the common approach in global studies of aerosol effects on mixed‐phase clouds so far. Results were found to be extremely sensitive to the choice of heterogeneous freezing parameterization and the maximum fraction of black carbon particles available for ice nucleation.

Orographic Precipitation in the Tropics: The Dominica Experiment

The Dominica Experiment (DOMEX) took place in the eastern Caribbean from 4 April to 10 May 2011 with 21 research flights of the Wyoming King Air and several other observing systems. The goal was an improved understanding of the physics of convective orographic precipitation in the tropics. Two types of convection were found. During a period of weak trade winds, diurnal thermal convection was seen over Dominica. This convection caused little precipitation but carried aloft air with island-derived aerosol and depleted CO2. During periods of strong trades, mechanically forced convection over the windward slopes brought heavy rain to the high terrain. This convection was “seeded” by trade-wind cumuli or neutrally buoyant cool wet patches of air. In this mechanically forced convection, air parcels did not touch the island surface to gain buoyancy so no island-derived tracers were lofted. With fewer aerosols, the mean cloud droplet diameter increased from 15 to 25 μm. Plunging airflow and a wake were found in t...

On the relationships among cloud cover, mixed-phase partitioning, and planetary albedo in GCMs

In this study, it is shown that CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs) that convert supercooled water to ice at relatively warm temperatures tend to have a greater mean-state cloud fraction and more negative cloud feedback in the middle and high latitude Southern Hemisphere. We investigate possible reasons for these relationships by analyzing the mixed-phase parameterizations in 26 GCMs. The atmospheric temperature where ice and liquid are equally prevalent (T5050) is used to characterize the mixed-phase parameterization in each GCM. Liquid clouds have a higher albedo than ice clouds, so, all else being equal, models with more supercooled liquid water would also have a higher planetary albedo. The lower cloud fraction in these models compensates the higher cloud reflectivity and results in clouds that reflect shortwave radiation (SW) in reasonable agreement with observations, but gives clouds that are too bright and too few. The temperature at which supercooled liquid can remain unfrozen is strongly anti-correlated with cloud fraction in the climate mean state across the model ensemble, but we know of no robust physical mechanism to explain this behavior, especially because this anti-correlation extends through the subtropics. A set of perturbed physics simulations with the Community Atmospheric Model Version 4 (CAM4) shows that, if its temperature-dependent phase partitioning is varied and the critical relative humidity for cloud formation in each model run is also tuned to bring reflected SW into agreement with observations, then cloud fraction increases and liquid water path (LWP) decreases with T5050, as in the CMIP5 ensemble.

Cirrus cloud seeding has potential to cool climate

] Cirrus clouds, thin ice clouds in the upper troposphere,have a net warming effect on Earth’s climate. Consequently,a reduction in cirrus cloud amount or optical thicknesswould cool the climate. Recent research indicates that byseeding cirrus clouds with particles that promote icenucleation, their lifetimes and coverage could be reduced.We have tested this hypothesis in a global climate modelwith a state-of-the-art representation of cirrus clouds and findthat cirrus cloud seeding has the potential to cancel the entirewarming caused by human activity from pre-industrial timesto present day. However, the desired effect is only obtainedfor seeding particle concentrations that lie within an optimalrange. With lower than optimal particle concentrations, aseeding exercise would have no effect. Moreover, a higherthan optimal concentration results in an over-seeding thatcould have the deleterious effect of prolonging cirrus lifetimeand contributing to global warming.

Modelling the impact of fungal spore ice nuclei on clouds and precipitation

Some fungal spore species have been found in laboratory studies to be very efficient ice nuclei. However, their potential impact on clouds and precipitation is not well known and needs to be investigated. Fungal spores as a new aerosol species were introduced into the global climate model (GCM) ECHAM5-HAM. The inclusion of fungal spores acting as ice nuclei in a GCM leads to only minor changes in cloud formation and precipitation on a global level; however, changes in the liquid water path and ice water path as well as stratiform precipitation can be observed in the boreal regions where tundra and forests act as sources of fungal spores. Although fungal spores contribute to heterogeneous freezing, their impact is reduced by their low numbers as compared to other heterogeneous ice nuclei.

Modeling of the Wegener?Bergeron?Findeisen process?implications for aerosol indirect effects

A new parameterization of the Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen (WBF) process has been developed, and implemented in the general circulation model CAM-Oslo. The new parameterization scheme has important implications for the process of phase transition in mixed-phase clouds. The new treatment of the WBF process replaces a previous formulation, in which the onset of the WBF effect depended on a threshold value of the mixing ratio of cloud ice. As no observational guidance for such a threshold value exists, the previous treatment added uncertainty to estimates of aerosol effects on mixed-phase clouds. The new scheme takes subgrid variability into account when simulating the WBF process, allowing for smoother phase transitions in mixed-phase clouds compared to the previous approach. The new parameterization yields a model state which gives reasonable agreement with observed quantities, allowing for calculations of aerosol effects on mixed-phase clouds involving a reduced number of tunable parameters. Furthermore, we find a significant sensitivity to perturbations in ice nuclei concentrations with the new parameterization, which leads to a reversal of the traditional cloud lifetime effect.

Spaceborne lidar observations of the ice‐nucleating potential of dust, polluted dust, and smoke aerosols in mixed‐phase clouds

Previous laboratory studies and in situ measurements have shown that dust particles possess the ability to nucleate ice crystals, and smoke particles to some extent as well. Even with coatings of pollutants such as sulphate and nitrate on the surface of dust particles, it has been shown that polluted dust particles are still able to nucleate ice in the immersion, deposition, condensation, and contact freezing modes, albeit less efficiently than unpolluted dust. The ability of these aerosols to act as ice nuclei in the Earths atmosphere has important implications for the Earths radiative budget and hence global climate change. Here we determine the relationship between cloud thermodynamic phase and dust, polluted dust, and smoke aerosols individually by analyzing their vertical profiles over a ∼5 year period obtained by NASAs spaceborne lidar, Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization. We found that when comparing the effects of temperature and aerosols, temperature appears to have the dominant influence on supercooled liquid cloud fraction. Nonetheless, we found that aerosols still appear to exert a strong influence on supercooled liquid cloud fraction as suggested by the existence of negative temporal and spatial correlations between supercooled liquid cloud fraction and frequencies of dust aerosols from around the world, at the −10°C, −15°C, −20°C, and −25°C isotherms. Although smoke aerosol frequencies were also found to be negatively correlated with supercooled liquid cloud fraction, their correlations are weaker in comparison to those between dust frequencies and supercooled liquid cloud fraction. For the first time, we show this based on observations from space, which lends support to previous studies that dust and potentially smoke aerosols can globally alter supercooled liquid cloud fraction. Our results suggest that the ice-nucleating ability of these aerosols may have an indirect climatic impact that goes beyond the regional scale, by influencing cloud thermodynamic phase globally.

Cirrus cloud susceptibility to the injection of ice nuclei in the upper troposphere

Due to their net warming effect, cirrus clouds play a crucial role in the climate system. A recently proposed climate engineering mechanism (CEM) intends to reduce high cloud cover by seeding cirrus clouds with efficient ice nuclei (IN) and therefore cool climate. Here, the susceptibility of cirrus clouds to the injection of ice nuclei in the upper troposphere is investigated in the extended Community Atmospheric Model version 5 (CAM5). Due to large uncertainties associated with the dominant ice nucleation mechanism in cirrus clouds, different control cases were simulated. In addition to pure homogeneous and heterogeneous nucleation, cases with competition between homogeneous and heterogeneous nucleation and different fractions of mineral dust active as IN were considered. Whereas seeding in the pure heterogeneous case leads to a strong warming due to overseeding, an optimal seeding IN concentration of approximately 18 l−1 was found for the other cases. For the optimal seeding concentration, a reduction in the net cloud forcing (NCF) of up to 2 W m−2 was simulated, corresponding to a strong cooling effect. To optimize the cooling and minimize the amount of seeding material, globally nonuniform seeding strategies were tested, with minimal seeding in the summer hemisphere and in the tropics. With seeding applied to less than half the globe, an even stronger reduction in the NCF was achieved. This suggests that the CEM could work for an atmosphere even with considerable heterogeneous ice nucleation and that the desired cooling could be obtained without seeding the entire globe.