Tsing-Chang Chen

Interannual Variation in the Tropical Cyclone Formation over the Western North Pacific

Abstract The interannual variation in tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific was examined for the active tropical cyclone (including summer and fall) during 1979–94. An emphasis was put on the possible effect of the interannual variation of atmospheric circulation and monsoon trough on tropical cyclone occurrence. The major findings of this study are the following. A distinct increase (decrease) of tropical cyclone genesis frequency occurs north of the climatological location of the monsoon trough in the Philippine Sea during summers (June–August) with anomalous cold (warm) sea surface temperature (SST) over the NINO3 region. The interannual variation of tropical cyclone genesis in this region results from the appearance of an anomalous cyclonic (anticyclonic) cell situated in a summer teleconnection wave train emanating from the western tropical Pacific and progressing along the rim of the North Pacific. In addition to the north–south interannual variation, there is also a long...

The 10–20-Day Mode of the 1979 Indian Monsoon: Its Relation with the Time Variation of Monsoon Rainfall

Abstract The synoptic structure of the 10–20-day monsoon mode and this intraseasonal monsoon modes relationship with the Indian monsoon rainfall are examined with the 1979 summer First GARP Global Experiment IIIb data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the daily 1° × 1° rainfall estimates retrieved from the satellite data by the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres. The major findings of this study are as follows. 1) The 10–20-day monsoon mode exhibits a double-cell (either double-high or double-low) structure; one cell is centered at about 15°–20°N and the other at the equator. 2) Both cells of the 10–20-day monsoon mode propagate coherently westward along the Indian monsoon trough and along the equator, respectively. 3) Based upon the zonal wind and local Hadley circulation, the vertical structure of the 10–20-day monsoon mode does not exhibit a phase change. 4) A significant rainfall occurs around low centers of the 10–20-day monsoon mode through the modulation of this monsoon...

Global Water Vapor Flux and Maintenance during FGGE

Abstract The relative humidity, temperature and wind fields generated by the First Global GARP Experiment (FGGE) III-b analysis of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) are used to examine the global precipitable water distribution, and the water vapor transport and maintenance for two extreme seasons of atmospheric circulation, i.e., December–February and June–August 1979. It has been observed that the major water vapor content exists in tropical areas, especially over three regions: equatorial Africa, the northern part of South America, and equatorial western Pacific in December-February; equatorial Africa, Central America and the northern part of South America, and monsoon areas in June-August. The water vapor transport was analyzed to explore how the high water vapor content of these areas is maintained by the large-scale atmospheric circulation. It is concluded that 1) the nondivergent stationary mode describes most of the atmospheric water vapor transport; 2) the stationary divergent mode...

An Observational Study of the South China Sea Monsoon during the 1979 Summer: Onset and Life Cycle

Abstract The onset and life cycle of the 1979 South China Sea summer monsoon were examined in the context of the 30–60- and 12–24-day monsoon modes. The former intraseasonal mode formed the northward-migrating monsoon trough/ridge, while the latter intraseasonal mode propagated westward in the South China Sea. The monsoon in this region exhibited three cycles over the summer (May–August), with the onset taking place about one cycle ahead of the onset of the Indian and Japanese monsoons. Climatologically, a summer trough line radiated out from the Indian monsoon trough region, across Indochina, to the northern South China Sea. The monsoon onset occurred when the 30–60-day monsoon trough and the 12–24-day low center arrived simultaneously at the northern South China Sea, close to the climatological summer trough line, in the middle of May. The breaks occurred when the 30–60-day monsoon ridge lines and the 12–24-day high center met near 15°–20°N in the northern South China Sea. The South China Sea monsoon wa...

Variation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

Abstract Rainfall variation of the East Asian summer monsoon has long been believed to be caused by the transition of weather regimes in company with the evolution of monsoon circulation. However, this claim was neither comprehensively analyzed nor convincingly demonstrated. Four datasets [Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) rainfall, NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) 6-h surface analysis maps, and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) 6-h tropical cyclone tracks] were used to depict the climatology of the monsoon rainfall variation and to explore the cause of this variation, particularly through the relationship between the seasonal evolution of the monsoon circulation and the associated synoptic disturbance activity. The monsoon life cycle in the southern part of East Asia is basically developed by the sequential passages of the mei-yu rainband in early summer, the western Pacific subtropical high in midsummer, and the tropical cyclone activit...

Interaction between the Summer Monsoons in East Asia and the South China Sea: Intraseasonal Monsoon Modes

Abstract The summer monsoons in East and Southeast Asia are characterized, respectively, by the Mei-yu (in eastern China)–Baiu (in Japan) front (MBF) and by the monsoon trough stretching from northern Indochina to the Philippine Sea. These two major monsoon elements are separated by the North Pacific anticyclone. As indicated by the 850-mb zonal wind and cumulus convection over some key areas, a distinct opposite-phase intraseasonal variation exists between the two monsoon elements. Two approaches are adopted to explore the cause of this opposite-phase variation (which reflects the coupling between the two monsoon components): 1) the correlation coefficient patterns between the 850-mb zonal-wind monsoon index and the 850-mb streamfunction field and 2) the composite 850-mb streamline charts and the 120°E zonal-wind cross sections. It is shown that the opposite-phase variation between the two monsoon elements is caused by the anomalous circulation associated with the northward-migrating 30–60-day monsoon tr...

The 30–50 Day Variation of Convective Activity over the Western Pacific Ocean with Emphasis on the Northwestern Region

Abstract Coherent 30–50 day oscillations between regions north and south of 20°N were observed using the latitude–time (y–t) diagram of a convective index (Ic) along 140°E over the entire 1979 summer (May–September). The oscillation in the northern region exhibits a relatively regular north–south movement of deep convective clouds, while the oscillation in the southern region shows enhancement or suppression fluctuations of broad and intensive deep convective clouds with a period of 30–50 days. The southward (northward) movement of the midlatitude oscillation coincides with the suppression (enhancement) of the tropical deep convective clouds. The midlatitude deep convective clouds are usually maintained by the divergent circulation and are associated with fronts. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of velocity potential at 200 mb shows that the north–south, 30–50 day oscillation of deep convective clouds over the northwestern Pacific is a response of the regional weather system to the eastwar...

Interannual Variation of the Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific

Abstract An effort was made to search for relationships between interannual variations of population, lifetime, genesis locations, and intensity of named typhoons and numbered tropical depressions in the western North Pacific during the 1979–2002 period. To support this research task, climatological relationships of tropical cyclone characteristics were also investigated for these cyclones. Major findings of this study are summarized as follows: Climatology: Measured by the intensity scale of the Japan Meteorological Agency, three groups of tropical cyclones were identified in terms of population versus intensity: Group 1 [tropical depression (TD) + typhoon (TY)], Group 2 (strong + very strong TY), and Group 3 (catastrophic TY). This group division coincides with that formed in terms of lifetime of tropical cyclones versus intensity. Weak cyclones (Group 1) have a larger population than strong cyclones (Group 3), while the former group has shorter lifetime than the latter group. For genesis locations, the...

Comparison of the Diurnal Precipitation Cycle in Convection-Resolving and Non-Convection-Resolving Mesoscale Models

Abstract The diurnal cycles of rainfall in 5-km grid-spacing convection-resolving and 22-km grid-spacing non-convection-resolving configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are compared to see if significant improvements can be obtained by using fine enough grid spacing to explicitly resolve convection. Diurnally averaged Hovmoller diagrams, spatial correlation coefficients computed in Hovmoller space, equitable threat scores (ETSs), and biases for forecasts conducted from 1 April to 25 July 2005 over a large portion of the central United States are used for the comparisons. A subjective comparison using Hovmoller diagrams of diurnally averaged rainfall show that the diurnal cycle representation in the 5-km configuration is clearly superior to that in the 22-km configuration during forecast hours 24–48. The superiority of the 5-km configuration is validated by much higher spatial correlation coefficients than in the 22-km configuration. During the first 24 forecast hours the 5-km m...

Diurnal and Seasonal Variations of the Rainfall Measured by the Automatic Rainfall and Meteorological Telemetry System in Taiwan

Abstract Under a weather hazard prevention program in Taiwan, the Vaisala Meteorological Instrument, Inc., of Finland and the Environmental Science and Engineering Corporation of Taiwan jointly developed and installed more than 300 stations of the Automatic Rainfall and Meteorological Telemetry System (ARMTS) over this subtropical island with an area of approximately 30 000 km2. The Taiwan ARMTS network can provide the hourly rainfall data of not only a densely instrumented, but also very uniquely observed, geographically complex island embedded in the east Asian monsoon environment. The hourly ARMTS rainfall for the period 1993–96 supplemented with the hourly surface winds and pressure observed by 25 conventional surface stations around this island are analyzed to understand three aspects of the diurnal and seasonal variations of Taiwan rainfall. The preliminary results of the analysis are presented in this paper. 1) The maximum daily rainfall occurs at about 1600 ∼1700 LST, which is about 2–3 h behind t...