Vicente Pinilla

From locational fundamentals to increasing returns: the spatial concentration of population in Spain, 1787–2000

Why is population not evenly distributed throughout a country’s territory? This paper focuses on the case of Spain, in order to empirically test two complementary theoretical explanations: (a) first nature advantages or locational fundamentals; and (b) second nature advantages or increasing returns. We estimate population density and population growth equations for the case of Spain between 1787 and 2000. Our results suggest that locational fundamentals explain the distribution of population prior to industrialization and that industrialization reinforced the pre-existing regional population disparities, especially as the share of increasing-returns sectors in the Spanish economy became significant. Finally, we perform an ANOVA analysis which shows that although in the pre-industrial economy first nature advantages were the most important in explaining the growth in provincial population densities, these were progressively superseded by the influence of first via second nature effects.

The political economy of the wine trade: Spanish exports and the international market, 1890–1935

At the end of the nineteenth century some of the less developed countries of Southern Europe often faced major problems when they sought to increase their exports of primary products. Such problems were a consequence of the tariff policies implemented by a number of their trading partners. In this article we analyse the case of the Spanish exports of ordinary table wine during the period 1890–1935. The expansion of wine production outside Europe meant that some countries in the American continent raised their tariffs to protect national production, which caused serious damage to exporters. Much more serious was the discriminatory trade policy initiated by France in 1891 which gave priority to the tariff-free importing of Algerian wine, as against the high tariffs that had to be paid by other exporters. This policy, as well as protecting French production, aimed to support her colonial policy in Algeria and seriously affected Spanish exports, as shown by our data and the econometric analysis we have carried out. The Spanish response resulted in a greater penetration of other European markets, thanks to the competitiveness of Spanish wine, but this did not prevent a serious crisis in the sector.

The agricultural and food trade in the first globalisation: Spanish table wine exports 1871 to 1935 – a case study

The objective of the present study is to analyze the overall trajectory of Spanish table wine exports during the period 1871–1935 and provide convincing explanations of the pattern. Thus, we employ an approach that takes all of the possible explanatory factors into account, instead of adopting a narrower approach which focuses on a single principal factor. The methodology employed consists of using a gravity model to explain trade flows in Spanish table wine. Our results highlight the key role of trade policies in the determination of export possibilities and the difficulties derived from the export of products which are characterized by the low or non-existent change in demand when income changes. These results may shed a little more light on the determinants of trade in the first phase of globalization. (JEL Classification: F14, N73, N74, Q17)

Causes of world trade growth in agricultural and food products, 1951–2000: a demand function approach

The objective of the present study is to analyse the causes of the growth of international agricultural and food trade in volume terms from 1951 to 2000. The results suggest that income growth has been the principal reason for this expansion, while exchange rate stability and the real price of agricultural products played only a minor role. Multilateral trade liberalization and trade costs, given their long-term stability, are not elements that could have stimulated their growth. Finally, the intensive liberalization of trade which took place in various economic regions, especially in Europe, became a key factor in promoting agricultural trade among the countries participating in regional trade agreements. The study results also indicate that the determinants of trade growth for these goods were different to those for other goods and other periods.

Taking advantage of globalization? Spain and the building of the international market in Mediterranean horticultural products, 1850–1935

This article examines how globalization and industrialization offered the nations of the European periphery opportunities to develop exports in sectors where they enjoyed a comparative advantage. As a case in point, we consider Spanish exports of Mediterranean horticultural products (MHP). Two bi-equational export supply and demand models (an equilibrium and a disequilibrium model) are proposed, in which volumes and prices are determined simultaneously, to throw light on the main causes of Spains expanding exports of MHP. The results clearly reflect the primacy of rightward shifts in the supply and demand curves in explaining the growth of MHP trade by volume. Thus, both rising incomes in the more developed countries and technological change in agriculture specializing in these products were key to the growth of this trade. Meanwhile, Spanish exporters also benefited from the increasing integration of international markets, especially through declining transport costs and, to a lesser extent, trade liberalization.

The long-run decline in the share of agricultural and food products in international trade: a gravity equation approach to its causes

The objective of this study is to determine the causes of the loss of share of agricultural products and food in international trade. The article compares, using a gravity model, the impact of various factors upon bilateral trade in agricultural products, in manufactures and in total trade, between 1963 and 2000 for a representative sample of 40 countries. The results clearly demonstrate how the low demand elasticity for agricultural products and food, the high degree of protectionism to which they were subjected and their meagre share in intra-industrial trade are the principal causes of their relatively slow growth.

The terms of trade for agricultural and food products, 1951-2000

This study aims to answer whether empirical records confirm the existence of a secular decline in the terms of trade affecting primary producers (the Singer–Prebisch hypothesis). The paper analyses the evolution of the terms of trade for agricultural and food products in the second half of the 20 th century. We obtain sixty new real price indices for internationally traded agricultural products. We conclude, from a long-term perspective, that the deterioration in the terms of trade for agricultural and food products was strong and clear in the second half of the last century. In general, less processed products suffered a very heavy fall in their real prices. However, there was no continuous and persistent deterioration in the terms of trade either as a whole or for the great majority of the agricultural and food product groups (with the exception of natural rubber, textile fibres and other raw materials). Rather, this deterioration occurred in stages.

Extreme Depopulation in the Spanish Rural Mountain Areas: A Case Study of Aragon in the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries

The phenomenon of rural depopulation has been an intense and centuries-long process in the mountain areas of Aragon in Spain. Throughout the nineteenth century, the traditional economic model of these territories broke down due to the crisis suffered by seasonal sheep migration, the non-viability of the old forms of agricultural production based on self-sufficiency and the destruction of the scattered textile industry. The new scenario offered some possible alternatives in sectors such as livestock, timber, mining and energy production or the activities associated with tourism and second homes. However, it is only these latter activities that have demonstrated some capacity to alter significantly the demographic tendencies, and even then they have done so in a somewhat delayed fashion and in a way limited to a small proportion of the geographical areas under study.

Globalization and natural resources: the expansion of the Spanish agrifood trade and its impact on water consumption, 1965–2010

Beginning in 1960, the Spanish agricultural sector underwent an intensive process of development, resulting in important structural changes, not only in the sector itself, but also in the relationship of the agrarian system to natural resources. These changes were closely related to the growth of per capita income and Spain’s increasing integration into international markets. In the last five decades, the volume of Spanish agricultural trade has increased strongly, with a concomitant increase in the consumption of domestic water resources, requiring the construction of water infrastructure for irrigation. This paper examines the impact on water use in Spain during a period of economic modernization and trade liberalization. More specifically, we are interested in obtaining virtual water trade flow trends and identifying the major drivers responsible for these trajectories, via a decomposition analysis. Our results point to a large increase in virtual water exports and imports, primarily driven by the scale effect, that is, by the growing integration into international markets. The composition effect and changes in water intensity entailed a moderation in water consumption.

Market dynamism and international trade: a case study of Mediterranean agricultural products, 1850-1935

This article concentrates on analysing the rightward shifts of the demand curve for Mediterranean agricultural products from 1850 to 1938. We have found that such shifts were especially conditioned by the different income elasticities of demand and by changes or otherwise, in consumer preferences. Our aim is to show that there was an initial conditioning factor for the producer countries to take full advantage of these potential growth opportunities, namely the size of such shifts.