Vinícius de Azevedo Couto Firme

Impactos de medidas "antidumping" adotadas pelos EUA sobre o setor siderúrgico de Minas Gerais e o restante do Brasil

The aim of this paper was to analyze the effect of the United States antidumping policy over exports by the steelmaking industry of Minas Gerais between 1999 and 2002. The results showed antidumping to be an instrument which had a significant effect on the decrease in trade flows. After the analyses of the integration between econometrics results and the inter-regional input-product matrices, it was possible to conclude that the most affected sector was steelmaking, with 75% of the total product effects in the period. With regards to employment, the average impact on the Minas Gerais steelmaking industry was more than 50% of the total new job opportunities, if neither antidumping measure had been adopted; and the steelmaking industry of the other regions of the country would be responsible for more than 16% of job opportunities created in the period.

The effect of macroeconomic variables on the opening of antidumping measures: A robust analysis for Brazilian and Argentine economy

This paper analyzes the influence of macroeconomic factors on the introduction of antidumping (AD) cases in Brazil and in Argentina. Since this type of research does not have large samples, the relevant variables were selected via Sala‐i‐Martins (1997) test. The results, estimated using Poisson models, revealed that Brazil and Argentina are influenced by macroeconomic factors. However, the traditional (aggregated) models tend to minimize this influence on Brazil and overestimate it on Argentina. We also found that domestic and foreign income growth, exchange rate devaluation, and a reduction in domestic prices could reduce the number of AD cases in both countries. Therefore, there is evidence that these countries are using the AD law as a political tool, shifting it from its main objective of avoiding unfair trade.

Uma análise preditiva para o uso do instrumento antidumping na Argentina

EnglishAbstract: This paper analyzed the influence of macroeconomic factors on the opening of antidumping cases (AD) in Argentina. The resulting model was used to predict the use of AD in this country. Quarterly data, from 1995 to 2010, were used to this end. The models were estimated by Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Poisson and Negative Binominal. The results revealed that the lagged variables can cause greater impacts on the opening of AD cases than contemporary variables. In addition, a worsening in current account, a currency devaluation or an increase in GDP from Argentina, Brazil and the rest of the world could reduce AD cases. As for predictions, it was found that Poisson was the closest to the real average number of AD measures initiated by Argentina. However, the smaller residuals were produced by OLS estimation. In general, the predictive capability of these models reveals a misuse of AD from Argentina. portuguesResumo: Este trabalho verificou o impacto de fatores macroeconomicos sobre a abertura de casos antidumping (AD) na Argentina e usou o modelo resultante para prever o uso do AD nesse pais. Para tanto, considerou dados trimestrais de 1995 a 2010. Os modelos, estimados via Minimos Quadrados Ordinarios (MQO), Poisson e Binominal Negativo, revelaram que as variaveis defasadas causam maiores impactos sobre a abertura de casos AD que as variaveis contemporâneas. Alem disso, uma piora nas transacoes correntes, uma desvalorizacao cambial ou um crescimento nas rendas da Argentina, do Brasil e do resto do mundo tenderiam a reduzir os casos AD. Quanto as previsoes, verificou-se que o modelo de Poisson foi o que mais se aproximou do numero real medio de medidas AD iniciadas pela Argentina. Contudo, o MQO produziu os menores residuos. De modo geral, a boa capacidade preditiva de tais modelos revela um mau uso do AD por parte da Argentina.

As relações setoriais entre Minas Gerais, restante do Brasil e seus 5 principais parceiros econômicos: Uma abordagem de insumo-produto

Este trabalho construiu e analisou uma matriz inter-regional de insumo-produto contendo os fluxos comerciais correntes de 2003, entre as regioes de Minas Gerais (MG), Restante do Brasil (RB) e Resto do Mundo (RM). Tal matriz apresentou desagregacao para: 11 setores em MG e RB e para os principais parceiros comerciais brasileiros no RM. Concluiu-se que, os setores de MG, apesar de apresentarem menores multiplicadores de producao que os do RB, impulsionam mais a industria nacional. No RM, a China auferiu o maior multiplicador de producao, foi considerada Setor-Chave e seu comercio inter-setorial foi o elo mais influente da economia mundial.

IDENTIFICAÇÃO DE NICHOS DE MERCADO PARA PAÍSES EXPORTADORES: UMA ANÁLISE MULTIVARIADA PARA O ANO DE 2011

This study aimed to identify market niches based on exports of 97 types of products made by 68 countries in 2011. Therefore, multivariate analysis techniques were used in order to determine which groups of countries are exporting similar products. The results indicate that exports of products of heavy industry (metal and concrete) and technology (machinery, reactors and electronic products) are the main differentiation factor between countries. China was the country with the highest score in these criteria (outlier) followed by Group USA and Germany. Brazil was included into an intermediate group and seems to compete more intensively with countries like India, Mexico, Malaysia, Turkey and nine other economies. In general, any trade agreement that focuses on economies inserted into the same group should consider the fact that they are not complementary between themselves and have been competing for the same niche in the foreign market.