Volker Krause

Alliances, Armed Conflict, and Cooperation: Theoretical Approaches and Empirical Evidence

Alliances are subject to many scholarly inquiries in international relations and peace research because they are major instruments of foreign and security policies. Since the early work on alliances produced by the Correlates of War (COW) project, there have been significant advances in conceptual, theoretical, and empirical alliance research. New typologies and data permit us to differentiate more thoroughly among a variety of alliance objectives and functions. Furthermore, there has been new theoretical and empirical research on alliance formation, alliance configuration/polarization, effects of alliances on military conflict, connections between alliances and trade, and the economics of alliances. Providing new theoretical approaches, data, and empirical evidence on alliances, this special issue includes articles that address alliance formation, alliance polarization, alliances and democratization, trade among allies, regional economic institutions with alliance obligations, and defense industrial policies of military alliances. The articles in this issue extend our understanding of alliances past the traditional realist balance-of-power framework and encourage further testing and refinement of older alliance arguments and extensions to new theoretical developments.

Hazardous Weapons? Effects of Arms Transfers and Defense Pacts on Militarized Disputes, 1950-1995

Aside from alliances, major powers may use arms transfers to provide military assistance to other states. Guided by bargaining scholarship, I argue that arms transfers, unless they are part of defense pacts, aggravate and militarize information asymmetries, making their recipients more likely to experience militarized disputes. Using probit and two-stage conditional maximum likelihood (2SCML) with data on all states between 1950 and 1995, I find that, absent quo acceptance, increased arms transfers from major powers make states more likely to be initiators and targets of militarized disputes. Defense pacts with major powers not only reduce the chance that states will be militarized dispute initiators due to major power arms transfers but also lessen their risk of being militarized dispute targets.

Minor Powers, Alliances, and Armed Conflict: Some Preliminary Patterns

The purpose of this article is to review research on formal alliances, with a focus on alliance policies of so-called “minor powers,” often also referred to as “small states.” Specifically, we will address the following two questions: First, what are some sources of minor-power alliance commitments? Or, what are some benefits minor powers can expect from formal alliance ties? Second, what are some consequences of minor-power alliance commitments in terms of armed conflict? Or, are minor powers with formal alliance connections more or less likely than those without such bonds to become involved in militarized disputes and wars? Before dealing with these particular questions, we will first define minor powers and alliances by distinguishing the former from major powers and the latter from alignments and coalitions. Here we will also differentiate briefly between collective defense and collective security.

The Correlates of War Project: a Bibliographic History of the Scientific Study of War and Peace, 1964-2000

The Correlates of War (COW) project is a unique research project that has been central to the world politics research community for thirty-six years. Since its founding by J. David Singer at the University of Michigan in 1964, the project has contributed significantly to the scientific study of war and conflict. In this article, we provide a historical summary of the COW research program through a selected bibliography of its published scholarship in four stages from 1964 to 2000.

Analysis: Trade openness, economic development and civil war onset in the post-colonial world, 1950–1992

This article reinvestigates the effects of trade openness and economic development on civil war. While some scholars argue that economic openness increases domestic turmoil, others claim that it promotes domestic peace. Focusing on trade openness as a key indicator of economic openness, hypotheses derived from previous research are tested against data for 83 states in the post-colonial world from 1950 to 1992. Results show that increased trade openness and economic development reduce the risk of civil war. The effect of trade is slightly greater with higher economic development. Civil war is more likely with oil export dependence, increased militarization, mixed regimes, mountainous terrain, and increased ethnic fractionalization.

Causes and Consequences of Military Alliances: Concepts, Theory, Evidence

Amidst post-Cold War debates over the purpose and function of military alliances, there has been a growing body of conceptual, theoretical, and empirical scholarship offering interesting and important insights into (1) alliance formation and duration and (2) effects of alliances on armed conflict. Conceptually, alliances have been classified by alliance typologies (Gibler, 1997; Leeds, 2003) that go beyond the Small and Singer (1969) distinction between defense pacts, nonaggression/neutrality treaties, and ententes. Theoretically, it has been argued that alliances “work both to signal intentions and create commitments” (Morrow, 2000). Also, following earlier work by Schroeder (1976), it has been noted that alliances may not only offer assurances of security but also restrain allies in their resort to military action (Snyder, 1997). Empirically, the original formal alliance data of the Correlates of War project has been updated through 2000 (Gibler and Sarkees, 2004), data has been collected on alliances before 1816 (Gibler, 1999), and there has been development of the Alliance Treaty Obligations and Provisions (ATOP) dataset (Leeds, Ritter, Mitchell, and Long, 2002). The objective of this special issue is to present two ways in which new alliance research may enhance our understanding of causes and consequences of military alliances, considering their formation and duration, as well as their effects on military conflict. First, it suggests moving our attention from a traditional focus on material variables, like capabilities, to a new focus on cognitive variables, like state interests, when investigating alliance causes and consequences. Secondly, it distinguishes

Book Note: Conflict & Collusion in Sierra Leone

tual rigour, a wide-ranging understanding of the relevant academic literature and an impressive grasp of major contemporary peacebuilding cases. The book starts by reviewing the issues involved with peacebuilding and then examines the often overlooked question of design. Next, security, political transition, development and the broad question of reconciliation and social rehabilitation are presented, emphasizing their interrelationship and the overall need for social transformation if conflicts of the past are not to resurface. The book concludes with a discussion of operational imperatives and coordination, concerns that arise when diverse actors (NGOs, international organizations, great powers and national institutions), with at times differing agendas and priorities, try to work together ‘on the ground’ in post-conflict societies. Some readers might find the author’s treatment of reconciliation somewhat ambiguous in regard to the ‘pardon vs. punish’ debate, or might have preferred to see a more substantial conclusion pulling together many of the themes introduced. That said, the book would definitely be useful to students, scholars and professionals looking for a concise yet highly informative overview of this subject. Charles O. Lerche

Book Note: Postconflict Development: Meeting New Challenges

tual rigour, a wide-ranging understanding of the relevant academic literature and an impressive grasp of major contemporary peacebuilding cases. The book starts by reviewing the issues involved with peacebuilding and then examines the often overlooked question of design. Next, security, political transition, development and the broad question of reconciliation and social rehabilitation are presented, emphasizing their interrelationship and the overall need for social transformation if conflicts of the past are not to resurface. The book concludes with a discussion of operational imperatives and coordination, concerns that arise when diverse actors (NGOs, international organizations, great powers and national institutions), with at times differing agendas and priorities, try to work together ‘on the ground’ in post-conflict societies. Some readers might find the author’s treatment of reconciliation somewhat ambiguous in regard to the ‘pardon vs. punish’ debate, or might have preferred to see a more substantial conclusion pulling together many of the themes introduced. That said, the book would definitely be useful to students, scholars and professionals looking for a concise yet highly informative overview of this subject. Charles O. Lerche

Book Note: Reinventing Development? Translating Rights-Based Approaches from Theory into Practice:

historical memory in Iraq. As in most postcolonial Arab states, the question of cultural authenticity within a Pan-Arabist framework has dominated political discourse. However, Davis takes us through an analysis of the development of Takriti Ba’thism under Saddam Husayn and the politicizing of Iraq’s own national history as saviours of the Arab empire. Thus, Davis shows how Takriti Ba’thism placed Iraqi nationalism over Pan-Arabism. In the second half of the book, Davis discusses how ethnic minorities can be seen as threats when they do not conform, exemplified by the presence of prominent Shi‘is in government. According to Davis, they are recruited despite their group belonging and not as grouprepresentatives. This is a familiar pattern found in, for instance, Turkey (Kurds). Assimilated people are not necessarily viewed as threatening; however, the regime may continue to discriminate against the group in general, legitimized by perceived doubts about the group’s national allegiance. The book is ideal for researchers working with questions of stateand nation-building in Iraq, as well as with regional issues of minority groups and state. Naima Mouhleb

Book Note: The Waning of Major War: Theories and Debates

covered. The Southern Thai Muslim problem seems to be the only obvious ethnic conflict not included in the book. The writers are the ‘usual suspects’ in Southeast Asian conflict research: extremely prolific writers and regular advisers to their governments. The latter fact makes this book even more interesting, as their views are often later reflected in government policies. Politically, it is interesting to notice that the writers join Ted Robert Gurr and others in suggesting conciliatory approaches rather than military solutions to ethnic conflicts. Perhaps it is this prescription that would become too sensitive if Pattani in Southern Thailand had been covered. The book starts with two shaky contextual assumptions, one global and one regional. It talks about the new world disorder, while there are indicators that the world is moving in a peaceful direction. Regionally, the book reflects a typical, but potentially incorrect, assumption of the contribution of ethnic diversity to conflict potential; Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler find that ethnic bipolarity, rather than diversity, contributes to conflicts. However, these assumptions do not spoil the thorough analysis of the cases. The book is good reading and can be strongly recommended to all Southeast Asianists and conflict specialists. Timo Kivimäki