W. Häfele

Hypotheticality and the new challenges: The pathfinder role of nuclear energy

To those who for many years have been active in the promotion of nuclear energy, the opposition of the public to the large-scale application of peaceful nuclear energy has come as a surprise. The experience of public hearings and face-to-face discussions with the opponents of nuclear energy has made them aware of modes of thought and criteria of judgement which they had not encountered previously. It is now necessary to reflect on these alternative modes of thought and judgement in order to arrive at new ones, and, by so doing, to improve the basis for rational action. Further, it appears that these alternative modes of thought and judgement and the responses which should be called forth by them do not arise on the occasion of large-scale uses of peaceful applications of nuclear energy alone. The new modes of thought which are being generated in consequence of the opposition are only adumbrations of a broader and more general development in thinking about science and technology. In this paper, I attempt to exemplify this development. I will begin with a brief account of the development of nuclear energy.

Strategies for a transition from fossil to nuclear fuels

Abstract Most countries now wish to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels. In this paper, Professors Hafele and Manne discuss transition away from the current situation where virtually all demands for primary energy are met by fossil fuels. Assuming that this transition is to be based upon nuclear fission, they examine the interplay between natural resource scarcities, economics costs and the assessment of alternative technologies for the production of synthetic fuels.

Energy Choices That Europe Faces: A European View of Energy

In conclusion, I feel that the energy challenge, tough as it is, does not pose unsurmountable technological problems, even in Europe. At least in principle, the necessary technology is already there. This article is meant to make that statement plausible. It is not the intention to insist on certain ideas. It is important, however, to have a consistent approach, and this means to obey the timing of the problem. Therefore the most important aspect during the transition phase probably is the buildup of a modern secondary energy system. In the long run it will ibe energy embedding and not the production of energy which will be the principal driving force for the development, because in principle at least there is more than one option to provide almost unlimited amounts of energy. In order to meet the demand for an appropriate embedding of energy, the concept of primary energy parks in the open sea seems to be most promising.

Energy options and strategies for Western europe.

Western Europe, now largely dependent on oil imports, has to prepare for strong competition for oil and energy imports in general before the year 2000. The more unlikely it is for Western Europe to secure from outside rich supplies of coal or uranium at readily acceptable economic and political conditions, the more serious this competition becomes. Even exceptionally low projections of economic growth and optimistic assumptions about energy conservation urgently call for vigorous and simultaneous development of indigenous coal and nuclear sources, including the breeder. Long-term contracts for the possession and deployment of foreign oil, gas, and coal deposits are mandatory and should be negotiated in view of the possible aggravation of north-south confrontation.

IIASA's World regional energy modelling

After stressing the need for, and difficulties in, long-term supranational energy-supply strategies, the author describes a high and a low scenario. Both are fairly conservative, even in their assumptions on the main variant, economic growth. Quantified for seven world regions via a set of highly iterative models, the scenarios give a conceivable energy-demand range over the next 50 years. By 2030, nuclear power may supply over 20% of the worlds energy; coal, in the form of synthetic fuels, will be replacing oil. Resource allocation and trade flows will in general be restricted by production ceilings. A satisfactory world and regional long-range energy supply will depend on prudent political and economic decision making.

Energy Strategies and Nuclear Power

The results of two quantitative scenarios balancing global energy supply with demand for the period 1980–2030 are reviewed briefly. The results suggest that during these 50 years there will be a persistent demand worldwide for liquid fuels, a continuing reliance on ever more expensive and “dirty” fossil fuels, and a limited penetration rate of nuclear generated electricity into the energy market. The paper therefore addresses a possible “second” grid driven by nuclear heat — a grid based not on electricity but on “clean” liquid fuels manufactured from gaseous and solid fossil fuels using nuclear power. Such a second grid would be an important complement to the electricity grid if the world is to progress towards a truly sustainable energy system after 2030.

Considerations on the large-scale deployment of the nuclear-fuel cycle

In papers by Hafele, Manne and Schikorr, strategies for a transition from fossil to nuclear fuels are considered for a model society of 250 M people with an asymptotic energy consumption of 10 kW thermal per capita. In the final state, a purely nuclear energy production system, based on only two reactor types, was assumed to cover all electric and non-electrical energy demands of the model society. It is the purpose of this paper to evaluate the whole nuclear fuel cycle belonging to the asymptotic nuclear energy-production system. In order to achieve this, all normal operational and accidental risks connected with the nuclear material throughputs are analyzed. Thus, an idea of the relative importance of the different hazards is obtained; furthermore, the basis for a comparison of the nuclear option with alternative options (which is the subject of forthcoming work) is given. With this purpose in mind, only orders of magnitude are considered throughout the paper; in addition, the argumentation is restricted to the level of expected values. Following the introduction, the mass flows of nuclear material through the nuclear fuel cycle are analyzed. The methodology used is then developed. The normal operation releases of radioactivity are considered and possible modes of accidental radioactive releases are analyzed; the problem of a final waste storage is treated separately because of its unique nature. Different kinds of sabotage and blackmail, including the construction of a nuclear explosive device, are next analyzed; finally, all calculations are summarized. In conclusion, a number of decision-oriented assessments are identified that must be made when the large-scale deployment of nuclear energy is considered.

Advanced converters and reactors

As Western Europe and most countries of the Asia-Pacific region (except Australia) have only small natural uranium resources, they must import nuclear fuel from the major uranium supplier countries. The introduction of advanced converter and breeder reactor technology allows a fuel utilization of a factor of 4–100 higher than with present low converters (LWRs) and will make uranium-importing countries less vulnerable to price jumps and supply stops in the uranium market. In addition, breeder-reactor technology will open up a potential that can cover world energy requirements for several thousand years. The enormous development costs of advanced converter and breeder technologies can probably be raised only by highly industrialized countries, which have made nuclear power one of the mainstays of their energy programs. Those highly industrialized countries that have little or no uranium resources (Western Europe, Japan) will probably be the first to introduce this advanced reactor technology on a commercial scale. A number of small countries and islands will need only small power reactors with inherent safety capabilities, especially in the beginning of their nuclear energy programs. For economic reasons, the fuel cycle services should not be built up in such small countries or on islands, but rather should come from large reprocessing centers of countries having sufficiently large nuclear power programs or from international fuel cycle centers. Only in this way can the economic benefits of nuclear power be realized in small countries or islands of the Asia-Pacific region.

Energy and Future Economic Growth

The difficulties of energy supply are growing, and the outlook for the decades ahead is dim. There is little doubt that energy-related problems will have their bearing on future economic growth. We still have an economic recession, to which the oil embargo of 1973 and the sudden fourfold price increase of crude oil have been contributing factors. Medium-term economic and energy growth projections have continually been revised downward since 1974. Yet the expert community still expects a possible major energy supply shortage around 1985 that would further aggravate the economic situation [1, 2, 3]. So the question is not whether energy prospects will affect the economic situation but rather: For how long will the energy problem be a major problem for economic development? and more so, which strategies could lead away from the foreseeable dilemma?

Energy use and climatic changes

The IIASA Energy Program is studying global aspects of energy systems in terms of resources, demands, options, strategies and constraints. One constraint on the major energy options (nuclear, fossil fuel and solar) is their potential impact on global climate. The energy systems could change climate through the addition of waste heat, through changes in atmospheric constituents and through changes in the characteristics of the land or ocean surface. Models of the atmospheric circulation have been used to study the impact of waste heat on the climate system and have shown that the addition of large amounts of heat in a variety of scenarios can have significant climatic effects not only in the area of heat input. One-dimensional and three-dimensional models of the atmosphere have shown that the addition of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere from combustion of fossil fuels also produces significant climatic changes. Changes in the albedo, roughness and hydrological characteristics of land surfaces, from the deployment of large scale solar energy conversion systems could certainly cause local climatic changes and possibly have global implications. Space observations of the net radiation budget at the top of the atmosphere, of the albedo of the earth-atmosphere system and of other climate variables necessary for the validation of climate models, will be required for the monitoring of climatic changes induced by energy systems.