W. M. Farr

Hot Jupiters from secular planet-planet interactions

About 25 per cent of ‘hot Jupiters’ (extrasolar Jovian-mass planets with close-in orbits) are actually orbiting counter to the spin direction of the star. Perturbations from a distant binary star companion can produce high inclinations, but cannot explain orbits that are retrograde with respect to the total angular momentum of the system. Such orbits in a stellar context can be produced through secular (that is, long term) perturbations in hierarchical triple-star systems. Here we report a similar analysis of planetary bodies, including both octupole-order effects and tidal friction, and find that we can produce hot Jupiters in orbits that are retrograde with respect to the total angular momentum. With distant stellar mass perturbers, such an outcome is not possible. With planetary perturbers, the inner orbits angular momentum component parallel to the total angular momentum need not be constant. In fact, as we show here, it can even change sign, leading to a retrograde orbit. A brief excursion to very high eccentricity during the chaotic evolution of the inner orbit allows planet–star tidal interactions to rapidly circularize that orbit, decoupling the planets and forming a retrograde hot Jupiter.

Secular dynamics in hierarchical three-body systems

The secular approximation for the evolution of hierarchical triple configurations has proven to be very useful in many astrophysical contexts, from planetary to triple-star systems. In this approximation the orbits may change shape and orientation, on time scales longer than the orbital time scales, but the semi major axes are constant. For example, for highly inclined triple systems, the Kozai-Lidov mechanism can produce large-amplitude oscillations of the eccentricities and inclinations. Here we revisit the secular dynamics of hierarchical triple systems. We derive the secular evolution equations to octupole order in Hamiltonian perturbation theory. Our derivation corrects an error in some previous treatments of the problem that implicitly assumed a conservation of the z-component of the angular momentum of the inner orbit (i.e., parallel to the total angular momentum of the system). Already to quadrupole order, our results show new behaviors including the possibility for a system to oscillate from prograde to retrograde orbits. At the octupole order, for an eccentric outer orbit, the inner orbit can reach extremely high eccentricities and undergo chaotic flips in its orientation. We discuss applications to a variety of astrophysical systems, from stellar triples to merging compact binaries and planetary systems. Our results agree with those of previous studies done to quadrupole order only in the limit in which one of the inner two bodies is a massless test particle and the outer orbit is circular;our results agree with previous studies at octupole order for the eccentricity evolution, but not for the inclination evolution.

On the Formation of Hot Jupiters in Stellar Binaries

We study the production of hot Jupiters (HJs) in stellar binaries. We show that the “eccentric Kozai–Lidov” (EKL) mechanism can play a key role in the dynamical evolution of a star–planet–star triple system. We run a large set of Monte Carlo simulations including the secular evolution of the orbits, general relativistic precession, and tides, and we determine the semimajor axis, eccentricity, inclination, and spin–orbit angle distributions of the HJs that are produced. We explore the effect of different tidal friction parameters on the results. We find that the efficiency of forming HJs when taking the EKL mechanism into account is higher then previously estimated. Accounting for the frequency of stellar binaries, we find that this production mechanism can account for about 30% of the observed HJ population. Current observations of spin–orbit angles are consistent with this mechanism producing ∼30% of all HJs, and up to 100% of the misaligned systems. Based on the properties of binaries without an HJ in our simulations, we predict the existence of many Jupiter-like planets with moderately eccentric and inclined orbits and semimajor axes of several AU.

Mass Measurements of Black Holes in X-Ray Transients: Is There a Mass Gap?

We explore possible systematic errors in the mass measurements of stellar mass black holes (BHs). We find that significant errors can arise from the assumption of zero or constant emission from the accretion flow, which is commonly used when determining orbital inclination by modeling ellipsoidal variations. For A0620?00, the system with the best available data, we show that typical data sets and analysis procedures can lead to systematic underestimates of the inclination by 10? or more. A careful examination of the available data for the 15 other X-ray transients with low-mass donors suggests that this effect may significantly reduce the BH mass estimates in several other cases, most notably that of GRO J0422+32. Assuming that GRO J0422+32 behaves similarly to A0620?00, the reduction in the mass of GRO J0422+32 fills the mass gap between the low end of the distribution and the maximum theoretical neutron star mass, as has been identified in previous studies. Otherwise, we find that the mass distribution retains other previously identified characteristics, namely a peak around 8 M ?, a paucity of sources with masses below 5 M ?, and a sharp drop-off above 10 M ?.

The first two years of electromagnetic follow-up with advanced LIGO and Virgo

We anticipate the first direct detections of gravitational waves (GWs) with Advanced LIGO and Virgo later this decade. Though this groundbreaking technical achievement will be its own reward, a still greater prize could be observations of compact binary mergers in both gravitational and electromagnetic channels simultaneously. During Advanced LIGO and Virgos first two years of operation, 2015 through 2016, we expect the global GW detector array to improve in sensitivity and livetime and expand from two to three detectors. We model the detection rate and the sky localization accuracy for binary neutron star (BNS) mergers across this transition. We have analyzed a large, astrophysically motivated source population using real-time detection and sky localization codes and higher-latency parameter estimation codes that have been expressly built for operation in the Advanced LIGO/Virgo era. We show that for most BNS events, the rapid sky localization, available about a minute after a detection, is as accurate as the full parameter estimation. We demonstrate that Advanced Virgo will play an important role in sky localization, even though it is anticipated to come online with only one-third as much sensitivity as the Advanced LIGO detectors. We find that the median 90% confidence region shrinks from ~500 deg^2 in 2015 to ~200 deg^2 in 2016. A few distinct scenarios for the first LIGO/Virgo detections emerge from our simulations.

Parameter estimation for compact binaries with ground-based gravitational-wave observations using the LALInference software library

The Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo gravitational-wave (GW) detectors will begin operation in the coming years, with compact binary coalescence events a likely source for the first detections. The gravitational waveforms emitted directly encode information about the sources, including the masses and spins of the compact objects. Recovering the physical parameters of the sources from the GW observations is a key analysis task. This work describes the LALInference software library for Bayesian parameter estimation of compact binary signals, which builds on several previous methods to provide a well-tested toolkit which has already been used for several studies. We show that our implementation is able to correctly recover the parameters of compact binary signals from simulated data from the advanced GW detectors. We demonstrate this with a detailed comparison on three compact binary systems: a binary neutron star, a neutron star–black hole binary and a binary black hole, where we show a cross comparison of results obtained using three independent sampling algorithms. These systems were analyzed with nonspinning, aligned spin and generic spin configurations respectively, showing that consistent results can be obtained even with the full 15-dimensional parameter space of the generic spin configurations. We also demonstrate statistically that the Bayesian credible intervals we recover correspond to frequentist confidence intervals under correct prior assumptions by analyzing a set of 100 signals drawn from the prior. We discuss the computational cost of these algorithms, and describe the general and problem-specific sampling techniques we have used to improve the efficiency of sampling the compact binary coalescence parameter space.

PARAMETER ESTIMATION FOR BINARY NEUTRON-STAR COALESCENCES WITH REALISTIC NOISE DURING THE ADVANCED LIGO ERA

Advanced ground-based gravitational-wave (GW) detectors begin operation imminently. Their intended goal is not only to make the first direct detection of GWs, but also to make inferences about the source systems. Binary neutron-star mergers are among the most promising sources. We investigate the performance of the parameter-estimation (PE) pipeline that will be used during the first observing run of the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (aLIGO) in 2015: we concentrate on the ability to reconstruct the source location on the sky, but also consider the ability to measure masses and the distance. Accurate, rapid sky localization is necessary to alert electromagnetic (EM) observatories so that they can perform follow-up searches for counterpart transient events. We consider PE accuracy in the presence of non-stationary, non-Gaussian noise. We find that the character of the noise makes negligible difference to the PE performance at a given signal-to-noise ratio. The source luminosity distance can only be poorly constrained, since the median 90% (50%) credible interval scaled with respect to the true distance is 0.85 (0.38). However, the chirp mass is well measured. Our chirp-mass estimates are subject to systematic error because we used gravitational-waveform templates without component spin to carry out inference on signals with moderate spins, but the total error is typically less than 10^(-3) M_☉. The median 90% (50%) credible region for sky localization is ~ 600 deg^2 (~150 deg^2), with 3% (30%) of detected events localized within 100 deg^2. Early aLIGO, with only two detectors, will have a sky-localization accuracy for binary neutron stars of hundreds of square degrees; this makes EM follow-up challenging, but not impossible.

Asteroseismic inference on rotation, gyrochronology and planetary system dynamics of 16 Cygni

The solar analogs 16 Cyg A and 16 Cyg B are excellent asteroseismic targets in the \Kepler field of view and together with a red dwarf and a Jovian planet form an interesting system. For these more evolved Sun-like stars we cannot detect surface rotation with the current \Kepler data but instead use the technique of asteroseimology to determine rotational properties of both 16 Cyg A and B. We find the rotation periods to be

False periodicities in quasar time-domain surveys

23.8^{+1.5}_{-1.8} \rm \, days

Basic Parameter Estimation of Binary Neutron Star Systems by the Advanced LIGO/Virgo Network

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