Wenceslao J. González

Explanation, Prediction and Confirmation

This volume, the second in the Springer series Philosophy of Science in a European Perspective, contains selected papers from the workshops organised by the ESF Research Networking Programme PSE (The Philosophy of Science in a European Perspective) in 2009. Five general topics are addressed: 1. Formal Methods in the Philosophy of Science; 2. Philosophy of the Natural and Life Sciences; 3. Philosophy of the Cultural and Social Sciences; 4. Philosophy of the Physical Sciences; 5. History of the Philosophy of Science. This volume is accordingly divided in five sections, each section containing papers coming from the meetings focussing on one of these five themes. However, these sections are not completely independent and detached from each other. For example, an important connecting thread running through a substantial number of papers in this volume is the concept of probability: probability plays a central role in present-day discussions in formal epistemology, in the philosophy of the physical sciences, and in general methodological debates---it is central in discussions concerning explanation, prediction and confirmation. The volume thus also attempts to represent the intellectual exchange between the various fields in the philosophy of science that was central in the ESF workshops.

Philosophico-methodological analysis of prediction and its role in economics

Introduction: The Problem of Scientific Prediction and its Role in Economics.- Part I: The Problem of Prediction as A Test For A Science.- Chapter 1: The Philosophico-Methodological Standpoint: The Issue of Prediction as a Requisite for Science.- Chapter 2: Characterization of Scientific Prediction and its Kinds in Economics.- Part II: The General Orientation in Methodology of Science and The Problem of Prediction As A Scientific Test.- Chapter 3: Falsificationism and the Methodological Levels on Prediction.- Chapter 4: Prediction and Novel Facts in the Methodology of Scientific Research Programs.- Part III: The Methodological Framework of Social Sciences and Economics: Incidence for Prediction as A Test.- Chapter 5: From Erklaren-Verstehen to Prediction-Understanding: The Methodological Framework for Prediction in Economics within Social Sciences.- Chapter 6: Methodological Approaches within Economics: The Perspectives on Prediction of Some Nobel Prize Winners.- Chapter 7: The Problem of Prediction in Economics from the Perspective of Action Theory.- Part IV: Epistemology And Methodology Of Economic Prediction: Rationality And Empirical Approaches.- Chapter 8: Rationality in Economics and Scientific Prediction: The Role of Economic Rationality in Prediction.- Chapter 9: Rationality and Prediction in Experimental Economics: An Analysis of Reinhard Seltens Approach.- Part V: Methodological Aspects Of Economic Prediction: From Description to Prescription.- Chapter 10: Methods of Prediction in Economics.- Chapter 11: Evaluation and Limits of Prediction in Economics.- Chapter 12: The Relation between Prediction and Prescription in Economics.- Bibliography.- Index of Names.- Subject Index.

The Role of Experiments in the Social Sciences: The Case of Economics

Publisher Summary This chapter discusses the role of experiments in the social sciences with focus on economics. Among the central topics in the methodology of the social sciences is the analysis of the role of experiments. It receives special attention in the case of economics, where there is a branch explicitly called “experimental economics.” However, the acceptance of “experiments” in the social sciences, in general, and in economics, in particular, has not been always the case, and it is still an issue that raises objections. Controlled observations have been commonly accepted as a valid procedure to test and evaluate scientific statements in the social sciences, whereas for a long time a wary attitude has dominated the scene regarding the role of experiments in the social sciences. Scientific research on social events has widened the original fields in the past decades, mainly in the sciences of psychology and economics. Some new territories have been embraced, such as “experimental economics,” which in 2002 received public recognition in the form of a Nobel Prize. Experimental economics is a branch of the social science that underwent the transformation from “a seldom encountered curiosity to a well-established part of economic literature,” from 1975 to 1985.

Complexity in Economics and Prediction: The Role of Parsimonious Factors1

Complexity is a key feature in the sciences of design from the point of view of their framework—or constitutive elements—as well as of their dynamics. This twofold complexity affects economics insofar as it is one of the sciences of the artificial. In this regard, economics is a “science of design” that enlarges our possibilities towards the future and uses prediction as a basis for decision-making. But economics is also a social science that deals with human needs. This feature adds more factors to the analysis of its complex configuration as a science and its dynamic evolution. Commonly, the studies on complexity in economics are focused on particular forms of expression of complexity rather than on the roots of this problem as a dual science (i.e., artificial and social).

New directions in the philosophy of science

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Science,technology and society: a philosophical perspective

Son muchos los libros, volumenes monograficos y revistas internacionales que, especialmente desde los anos ochenta, se han editado desde un sinfin de disciplinas diversas y que podrian definirse bajo el rotulo Ciencia, Tecnologia y Sociedad. Un oceano de literatura academica y no academica que define cada vez mas esta area como un asunto interdisciplinar. Dentro de esta produccion, y desde hace ya mas de una decada, tiene un papel destacado la prolifica aportacion de publicaciones escritas en espanol y portugues. Estos trabajos han sido el resultado de la introduccion de esta tematica en nuestras fronteras, de la constitucion de areas academicas y departamentos CTS y, lo que es mas importante, de la consolidacion de una tradicion propia. Tal practica puede presumir en el ambito iberoamericano actual de tener caracteristicas propias. Algunas de estas se basan en la posibilidad de aportar al debate internacional nuestras propias fuentes clasicas, en la especial atencion a desarrollar estudios empiricos contextualizados en nuestra realidad geosocial e, incluso, en la especializacion en ciertas lineas de investigacion CTS.

Reichenbach's concept of prediction

Abstract Reichenbach emphasizes the central importance of prediction, which is—for him—the principal aim of science. This paper offers a critical reconstruction of his concept of prediction, taking into account the different periods of his thought. First, prediction is studied as a key factor in rejecting the positivism of the Vienna Circle. This part of the discussion concentres on the general features of prediction before Experience and Prediction (EP) (section 1). Second, prediction is considered in the context of Reichenbachs disagreements with his contemporaries—Carnap and Popper—(section 2). Pointing out these differences gives an additional basis for understanding how Reichenbach saw “prediction” in the period when EP was written. Third, Reichenbachs theoretical framework of prediction is analysed following EP. This analysis studies the semantical, logical, epistemological and methodological bases of his concept of prediction (section 3). Fourth, Reichenbachs conception of prediction, based on a...

Prediction and Mathematics: The Wittgensteinian Approach

Prediction is a key element in the development of science and in its philosophical study. Mathematics is used to make predictions, but philosophically this is an almost unnoticed element: neither has it been analyzed from the point of view of its role in science nor has it received attention from the perspective of its contribution to the concept of “scientific prediction.” Wittgenstein has thought about different aspects of this problem, especially in his Bemerkungen uber die Grundlagen der Mathematik.

Intuitionistic mathematics and wittgenstein

The relation between Wittgensteins philosophy of mathematics and mathematical Intuitionism has raised a considerable debate. My attempt is to analyse if there is a commitment in Wittgenstein to themes characteristic of the intuitionist movement in Mathematics and if that commitment is one important strain that runs through his Remarks on the foundations of mathematics. The intuitionistic themes to analyse in his philosophy of mathematics are: firstly, his attacks on the unrestricted use of the Law of Excluded Middle; secondly, his distrust of non-constructive proofs; and thirdly, his impatience with the idea that mathematics stands in need of a foundation. These elements are Fogelins starting point for the systematic reconstruction of Wittgensteins conception of mathematics.

From the Characterization of ‘European Philosophy of Science’ to the Case of Philosophy of the Social Sciences

How distinct is European philosophy of science? The first step is to characterize what is or might be considered as ‘European philosophy of science’. The second is to analyse philosophy of the social sciences as a relevant case in the European contribution to philosophy of science. (1) ‘European perspective’ requires some clarification, which can be done from two main angles: the historical approach and the thematic view. Thus, there are several structural and dynamic things to be considered in European philosophy of science and compare with other conceptions: (i) the topics discussed; (ii) the contents proposed; and (iii) the style of thought used. (2) The case of philosophy of the social sciences is relevant for the historical approach and for the thematic view. Historically, the Erklären–Verstehen methodological controversy arose in this continent, where the main authors and most of the influential approaches are located. Thematically, we can consider the contributions made by these European approaches to philosophy of the social sciences. They give us some distinctive features of European philosophy of science.