Wendell Bell

Equality, Success, and Social Justice in England and the United States.

In an exploratory study of matched samples in England and the United States, we construct a path model that explains 26% and 39%, respectively, of the variance in social judgments about the fairness or unfairness of equality. The underdog principle, from which we predict that egalitarians compared to inegalitarians are more likely to be nonwhite, to have low prestige occupations, to have low family incomes, and to identify with the lower and working classes, is accepted. The principle of enlightenment, from which we predict a positive relationship between education and favorable attitudes toward equality, is accepted for England but not for the United States. The principle of an egalitarian Zeitgeist, from which we predict younger people are more egalitarian than older people, is accepted for the United States but not for England. Two additional important causal variables are found. First, a sense of personal equity, that is, a belief that a person has the standard of living that helshe deserves, reduces egalitarian attitudes in England more than in the United States and may reflect a cultural belief that British society is extraordinarily just because social arrangements result from fair rules of the game. While it is of no importance in England, the cultural belief in monetary success reduces egalitarian attitudes in the United States and functions as the belief in the just society does in England.

Urban Neighborhoods and Informal Social Relations

Interviews with men in four neighborhoods of different social type in San Francisco reveal that informal relationships within the neighborhood are fairly frequent and likely to be personal, close, and intimate. The frequency and the nature of informal participation vary with the economic and family characterics of the neighborhoods. Compared to neighbors and co-workers, kin are generally more important in each neighborhood by all the measures of informal participation used. Formal group participation results in friendship for the majority.

An epistemology for the futures field: Problems and possibilities of prediction

Abstract A paradox of the futures field is that futurists strive to know what cannot be known, ie they make assertions, however tentative and contingent, about the future. They understand, of course, that the future has not yet materialized in the present and that, thus, nothing has happened that can be known. In attempting to deal with this paradox, futurists have offered conflicting views on the role of prediction in futures research, some denying that prediction has any role whatsoever. This article claims that prediction is a legitimate purpose of the futures field and proposes four solutions to the paradox.

Making People Responsible The Possible, the Probable, and the Preferable

Relying only on explanations based on impersonal social forces and cultural imperatives that are viewed as inevitably leading to particular human behaviors is incomplete social analysis. Any adequate theory of modern society must include people as active, purposeful, and innovative beings whose future-oriented behavior helps create not only their own future but also the social order itself. Social research directed at the investigation of such human agency contributes to our knowledge of futures thinking and accountability. Although people produce consequences for which they ought to be held accountable, they often do so only more or less competently. Their competence can be improved by teaching them the principles of futures thinking. They can become more responsible actors by learning to search more fully for possible futures, to forecast probable futures more accurately, and to make judgments of preferable futures more objectively.

The Social Areas of the San Francisco Bay Region

tion of racial attitudes which, relative to other Southern states, might tend to give Negro migration patterns similar to Northern states. Looking at the pattern of net-migration of Negro females, one is immediately impressed with the increasing amounts of net out-migration of Negro females from 20 to 40 years of age. There was a small but fairly consistent net in-migration of Negro females between the ages of 45 and 60, but even this changed to a net out-migration in the 1930-1940 decade. The pattern of net migration of older Negroes gives no indication that there was the same excessive misstatement of age in the 1930-1940 decade as is indicated by the pattern of white migration. Looking at the migration patterns of white and Negro males and females we can see the similarity in patterns of female migration regardless of color, and the similarity in patterns of male migration regardless of color, from 1900 to 1920. That is, in this period the color differences are less important than the sex differences. However from 1920 to 1940 the color differences are more important than the sex differences. Another relatively consistent pattern that shows itself is the variation between white males and females in the age at which net out-migration is a maximum. In general this point of maximum net out-migration is at an earlier age for males than for females except for the 1890 to 1900 decade when it is unusually low for both sexes. No such difference exists for the Negro population, the peak of net out-migration occurring at the same age for both sexes every decade. Looking at the total picture for the country by regions we see that for whites and Negroes in nearly every region, the 1930 to 1940 period represents a reversal in trend (though it represents a reversal in direction for only the Southwest) for each color-sex group. This raises questions as to the generality of the conclusions derived from the 1935 to 1940 migration data. It is quite possible that the migration between 1935 and 1940 was consistent with past trends, but that it was the migration during the depths of the depression, 1930 to 1935, that was out of line with previous trends. Before the project is completed it is expected to make a comparison between migration 1930 to 1940 and migration 1935 to 1940 in an effort to get as much information as possible on migration 1930 to 1935. In conclusion we can say that this project will provide a great deal of basic data on net migration in the United States between 1870 and 1940, will examine several methodological problems in the estimation of net migration, and it is hoped will provide a background against which to project many more research projects in internal migration.

Social Structure and Participation in Different Types of Formal Associations

T HE complexity and heterogeneity of modern urban society have fostered a social organization highly differentiated in interests. The tendency for persons having similar stakes in society to organize formally into groups for the pursuit of mutual goals has resulted in a kaleidoscope of interest groupings within contemporary large-scale society. Persons with similar interests, however, are not found randomly occupying the various social positions in the larger society, rather their similarity of interest seems to follow from their similarity with respect to the social statuses which they hold. The purpose of this paper is to determine the relationship between membership in certain types of interest groupings, as revealed by formal association membership, and certain positions in the social structure, as revealed by residence in certain types of neighborhoods.

THE SOCIOLOGY OF THE FUTURE AND THE FUTURE OF SOCIOLOGY

Drawing on futures studies for possible future directions of Sociology, I make eight proposals designed to enhance Sociology as an action and policy science: (1) Replace postmodern beliefs with critical realism as a theory of knowledge, thereby avoiding the self-defeating consequences of extreme subjectivism and relativism. (2) Since sound decision making invites knowing the probable future consequences of contemplated actions, give more attention to prediction and the study of self-altering prophecies. (3) Bring moral discourse back into Sociology— explicitly, rigorously, critically, and objectively—focusing on achieving freedom and well-being for human beings. Think (4) globally and (5) holistically, even when working locally. (6) Take the meaning of time seriously and explore the real, though sometimes hidden, alternative present possibilities for the not-yet-evidential future. (7) View people as active agents who strive to create the futures that they want. And (8) in defining society, emphasize expectation, choice, and decision as people, through historical actions, construct society by attempting to transform their images of desirable futures into social realities.

Cognitive Maps of Class and Racial Inequalities in England and the United States

A 1975 exploratory study is used in this investigation of the cognitive maps of class and racial inequalities held by 113 American and 101 English repondents. An Index of Perceived Inequality is constructed from nine items dealing with inequalities, both among classes and between races, of education, occupation, income, respect, and treatment by the police and courts. The index appears reliable and valid, particularly for the United States. For the United States, factor analyses show that perceptions of class inequalities cannot be separated empirically from perceptions of racial inequalities on the basis of their interrelationships. Thus a single dimension can account for the common variation of the nine items. But in England perceptions of class and racial inequalities tend to separate into two distinct, though correlated, clusters. Additionally, for both countries there is support for grouping the items into those dealing with inequality of opportunity and those dealing with inequality of treatment and condition. Finally, compared with the English, Americans perceived more inequality, were more likely to see a growing economic gap between the rich and the poor, saw a larger number of social classes, and were more likely to say that money is the defining criterion of class.

A community of futurists and the state of the futures field

Abstract Criticisms of futures studies ought to be evaluated in comparison with those of other fields. For example, compared to the established disciplines, futures studies is less fragmented and has many positive features. Also, controversies among futurists do not mean that futures studies is not a field. Rather, one hallmark of any field of inquiry is that its members constitute a disputatious community. Moreover, futures studies is unified by interlinked and overlapping networks of communications and influences among futurists, a shared transdisciplinary matrix, and the growth of a futurist canon. The future of futures studies is bright, because it is reasonable to hope that futurists will be able to establish the field in most of the world’s colleges and universities.

Futures studies comes of age: twenty-five years after The limits to growth☆

Abstract Twenty-five years ago, the publication of The limits to growth marked a period of accomplishments in the futures field. Today, futures studies is experiencing another burst of development and is ready to move more fully into mainstream intellectual life and the standard educational curriculum. In addition to continued work on methods, theory, and empirical research, the resolution of three issues might help persuade established academic communities of the serious purposes and sound intellectual contributions of futurists. They are (1) the adoption of an adequate theory of knowledge (critical realism is proposed), (2) the recognition that prediction does play a role in futures studies (so we can deal explicitly with the philosophical challenges it poses), and (3) the formulation and justification of core values (so we have a valid basis by which to judge the desirability of alternative futures). I propose a critical discourse among futurists in order to resolve each issue. The desire to make futures thinking a part of everyones education is not, of course, mere futurist chauvinism, but is based on the conviction that futures studies has important contributions to make to human well-being.