William J. Milne

Can Public Policy Affect Fertility

This paper examines the relationship between a number of government programs and the total fertility rate. Uisng a simple time series model, which explicitly considers the labor market behavior of women, we find that government programs which implicitly alter the costs of having a child have a small, but positive, impact on fertility. The results suggest that during the 1980s, a one percent increase in the real value of Unemployment Insurance maternity benefits would results in an increase in the total fertility rate of between 0.09 and 0.26 percnet. The paper is timely in view of the recent pro-natalist policies introduced by the Quebec government.

Migration in an interregional macroeconometric model of the United States: will net outmigration from the Northeast continue?

This paper reports on the specification, estimation and simulation of an interregional net migration model of the United States. The model makes use of time series data including, as explanatory variables, wage rates, unemployment rates, and population density. Simulation experiments are undertaken by joining the migration model with a multiregional macroeconometric model to examine the effect of migration patterns of changes in national economic growth. In particular, the net outmigration trends in the Northeast are examined under alternate scenarios including faster national economic growth and a different energy pricing policy.

The Effects of Incumbency in U. S. Congressional Elections, 1950-1988

Using a random coefficients model and regression analysis, the authors examine the effects of incumbency in U.S. House and Senate elections since 1950. The model is based on assumptions about the behavior of voters. A strong effect for incumbency is demonstrated, amounting to at least 10 percentage points in the popular vote in elections since 1974. Part of the effect occurs because incumbents by definition do not run against incumbents. A significant time trend emerges, and there is a significant difference in the effect between presidential and nonpresidential years. The effect is robust, being relatively insensitive to changes in the specification of the underlying model. The model is also used to examine changes over time in the attachment of voters to political parties.

Housing prices in Metropolitan Toronto: An empirical analysis

Abstract This paper examines short-run fluctuations in real house prices in Metropolitan Toronto. We hypothesize that the average time that a house has been on the market before it is sold provides information on the expectation of future movements in real house prices. The paper combines the use of cross spectral analysis (in the frequency domain) with regression analysis (in the time domain) to examine the relationship between monthly real house prices and the average waiting times. In particular, we use a Hannan estimator to form a distributed lag function from the spectral analysis and use these results as an input to the regression model. The empirical findings support our use of waiting times as a proxy of future real house price movements.

Modelling Internal Migration in Kenya: An Econometric Analysis with Limited Data

In this paper the determinants of internal migration in Kenya are analyzed on the basis of a human capital model. Explanatory variables included in the specification are both economic (wage rates and employment rates) and noneconomic (for example, population density and educational attainment). Also incorporated are variables which reflect intervening opportunities. These variables are defined as distance-weighted averages of the variables in all of the districts in Kenya except the origin and destination districts. The econometric results show that destination variables are important determinants of internal migration, as is distance between the districts. Further, the variables for the intervening opportunities add significantly to the explanatory power of the model.

Who Should Pay for University Education? Some Net Benefit Results by Funding Source for New Brunswick

This paper measures rates of return from spending on New Brunswick universities for four constituencies: the provincial government, the federal and provincial governments together, students, and society taken as a whole. Our main finding is that the rate of return is higher for both levels of government taken together than for the provincial government alone - even before allowance is made for outmigration of university graduates. This suggests a continued role for federal government financing, since otherwise there would be an incentive for small provinces to decrease funding and import graduates from other provinces. Another finding, relevant to user pay arguments about university funding, is that the private return to students exceeds the social return, but this difference narrows considerably when costs of attending university are confined to teaching costs only.

Multiregional estimation of gross internal migration flows.

A multiregional model of gross internal migration flows is presented in this article. The interdependence of economic factors across all regions is recognized by imposing a non-stochastic adding-up constraint that requires total immigration to equal total outmigration in each time period. An iterated system estimation technique is used to obtain asymptotically consistent and efficient parameter estimates. The model is estimated for gross migration flows among the Canadian provinces over the period 1962-86 and then is used to examine the likelihood of a wash-out effect in net migration models. The results indicate that previous approaches that use net migration equations may not always be empirically justified.

Migration in an Economic-Demographic Model for the Canadian Provinces

This paper is a description of the structure of a multiregion economic-demographic model for the Canadian provinces. An important part of the demographic model is the estimation of net migration equations based on a human capital approach and incorporating the adding-up constraint that arises since the sum of the net migration flows across all provinces must be 0 in each period. These endogenous migration flows allow for variables from the economic model (wage rates and unemployment rates) to influence the source population, the labour force and, therefore, the unemployment rate and other variables in the economic model. This economic – demographic model is then used in simulation experiments designed to show the economic – demographic interactions and how these lead to a moderation in the effect of policy.

Econometrically accounting for identities and restrictions in models of interregional migration: A comment

Abstract This comment clarifies and expands on an earlier article in this Journal by Greenwood and Hunt which addresses problems of estimating interregional migration models when non-stochastic adding-up constraints are present. The comment focuses on issues of specification, estimation and hypothesis testing within a closed system of migration equations stressing solutions to the degrees of freedom problem and tests for homogeneity and symmetry.