Wiston Adrián Risso

Tourism's Impact on Long-Run Mexican Economic Growth

Tourism is one of the most important factors in the productivity of Mexican economy with significant multiplier effects on economic activity. This paper investigates possible causal relationships among tourism expenditure, real exchange rate and economic growth by using quarterly data. Johansen cointegration analysis shows the existence of one cointegrated vector among real GDP, tourism expenditure and real exchange rate where the corresponding elasticities are positive. The tourism-led growth hypothesis is confirmed through cointegration and causality testing. Tourism expenditure and Real Exchange Rate (RER) are weakly exogenous to real GDP. A modified version of the Granger Causality test shows that causality goes unidirectionally from tourism expenditure and RER to real GDP. Impulse response analysis shows that a shock in tourism expenditure produces a short fall and then a positive effect on growth.

Research note:The tourism-led growth hypothesis for Uruguay

This paper analyses the effects of tourism on the long-run economic growth of Uruguay. Using quarterly data from 1987.I to 2006.IV, the study uses cointegration analysis and shows the existence of a cointegrated vector among Uruguayan real per capita GDP, Argentinean tourism expenditure (the principal source of tourism in Uruguay) and real exchange rate between Uruguay and Argentina. It also shows that there is a positive causality relationship between Argentinean tourism expenditure and real per capita GDP of Uruguay. Finally, the authors compare this study with similar papers investigating the tourism-led growth hypothesis.

Symbolic hierarchical analysis in currency markets

In this paper we introduce a new method to describe dynamical patterns of the real exchange rate co-movements time series and to analyze contagion in currency crisis. The method combines the tools of symbolic time series analysis with the nearest neighbor single linkage clustering algorithm. Data symbolization allows us obtaining a metric distance between two different time series that is used to construct an ultrametric distance. By analyzing the data of various countries, we derive a hierarchical organization, constructing minimal-spanning and hierarchical trees. From these trees we detect different clusters of countries according to their proximity. We show that this methodology permits us to construct a structural and dynamic topology that is useful to study interdependence and contagion effects among financial time series.

Tourism as a determinant of long‐run economic growth

This study investigates the relationships between tourism and economic growth. It does this by examining the South Tyrolean economy using the Johansen cointegration test to obtain a cointegrated vector among the relevant variables and the Granger causality test to investigate causality. Annual GDP data from 1980 to 2006, the number of foreign visitors to South Tyrol, and the relative prices (RP) between South Tyrol and Germany (the source of more than 60% of foreign tourists) are used. The Johansen cointegration test shows that the estimated long‐run elasticity of the real GDP with respect to tourism demand is 0.29 and the Granger causality test shows that causality goes unidirectionally from tourists and RP to real GDP. Therefore, the tourism‐led growth hypothesis is supported empirically in the case of South Tyrol. In other words, in South Tyrol, tourism reinforces long‐run economic growth but economic growth does not reinforce tourism. Impulse response analysis shows that a shock to the number of tourists and RP produces a continuous and sustained positive effect.

A Dynamic Panel Data Study of the German Demand for Tourism in South Tyrol

Germany is traditionally the most important source of tourism for South Tyrol. The purpose of this study is to investigate the determinants of the German demand for tourism in this Italian region. We introduce a dynamic panel data model for modelling short and long-term responses. We use annual data from 1987 to 2007 of the per capita GDP of Germany (measuring income), the number of German tourists in each of the 116 tourism destinations of South Tyrol (measuring the volume of tourism), the relative prices between Italy and Germany (measuring tourism price) and price of crude oil (as a proxy of travel costs). The main results of this study are: (1) the demand for tourism in the previous period has a positive and relevant effect on actual demand, reflecting loyalty of the German tourists; (2) the cost of travel and the relative prices have a negative and significant impact on tourism demand.

The informational efficiency: the emerging markets versus the developed markets

The purpose of the article is to study the difference between the informational efficiency levels between the emerging and developed markets. We applied the symbolic time series analysis approach and the Shannon entropy in order to measure and rank the informational efficiency of 20 stock markets from 1 July 1997 to 14 December 2007. Three Asian markets take the first positions as the most efficient (Taiwan, Japan and Singapore). The last positions are taken by the ex-socialist countries as the most inefficient markets. The latter could be due to the lack of experience of these markets.

Dynamics and Structure of the Main Italian Companies

Financial markets can be modeled as complex systems. The Hugh quantity and different information affecting these markets is a remarked characteristic. However some of this information can be recovered by constructing a topology of the market. We develop a symbolic method in order to study relationships in the financial markets by constructing a minimal spanning tree (MST) and a hierarchical tree (HT). The method is successfully applied to the Italian financial market, detecting clusters with economic sense. This classification is helpful in portfolio construction and studying industrial networks.

Research Note: Tourism as a Factor of Growth – the Case of Brazil:

International tourism is recognized to contribute to long-run growth through a whole list of diverse channels. This belief that tourism can cause long-run growth is known in the literature as the ‘tourism-led growth hypothesis’. This case study of Brazil can be taken as a specific test for such a hypothesis. In the paper, two different econometric methodologies are applied to two distinct data sets, showing that the results are independent of either data or methodology. On the one hand, annual data from 1965 to 2007 for Brazil as a whole are used for a cointegration analysis to look for the existence of a long-run relationship among variables of economic growth, international tourism earnings and the real exchange rate. On the other hand, high-quality data for the 27 Brazilian states, though for a shorter period (from 1990 to 2005), enable the use of the dynamic panel data model proposed by Arellano and Bond (1991). The authors show that the long-run elasticities between real per capita GDP with respect to tourism receipts and the real rate of exchange are 0.13 and 0.30, respectively. Finally, they compare their results with those of similar studies.

Cruise passengers expenditure analysis and probability of repeat visits to Costa Rica: a cross section data analysis

The present article considers the cruising expenditure in Costa Rica as a key variable in the economic analysis of the cost and benefits associated with the cruise industry. We applied a rarely accessible and very good quality database collected by the Costa Rica Tourism Board (ICT) to estimate our econometric models. We estimate a cross-sectional regression model for the cruising expenditure, showing the existence of different tourist profiles that are related to the expenditure levels. In particular, heavy spenders are distinguishable from the other segments in terms of age, hours spent out of the ship, nationality, income levels, and their spending pattern. In addition, we also use the data to analyze the determinants of the probability of returning. We show that this probability depends positively on the level of satisfaction declared by the passenger and the number of hours spent out the ship, among other variables. We also show that older visitors are more likely to return than younger ones; first-time visitors are also more likely to return than repeat visitors and tourists whose income is larger than US

Tourism as a Factor of Growth: The Case of Brazil

41,000 are more likely to return than other visitors. Finally, men are more likely to return than women.