Xingwang Qian

EMPIRICS OF CHINA'S OUTWARD DIRECT INVESTMENT

We investigate the empirical determinants of China’s outward direct investment (ODI). It is found that China’s investments in developed and developing countries are driven by different sets of factors. Subject to the differences between developed and developing countries, there is evidence that a) both market seeking and resources seeking motives drive China’s ODI, b) the Chinese exports to developing countries induce China’s ODI, c) China’s international reserves promote its ODI, and d) the Chinese capital tends to agglomerate among developed economies but diversify among developing economies. Similar results are obtained using alternative ODI data. We do not find substantial evidence that China invests in African and oil-producing countries mainly for their natural resources.

Hoarding of International Reserves: Mrs Machlup's Wardrobe and the Joneses

Motivated by the observed international reserve hoarding behavior in the post-1997 crisis period, we explore the Mrs Machlups Wardrobe hypothesis and the related keeping up with the Joneses argument. It is conceived that, in addition to psychological reasons, holding a relatively high level of international reserves reduces the vulnerability to speculative attacks and promotes growth. A stylized model is constructed to illustrate this type of hoarding behavior. The relevance of the keeping up with the Joneses effect is examined using a few plausible empirical specifications and data from 10 East Asian economies. Panel-based regression results are suggestive of the presence of the Joneses effect, especially in the post-1997 crisis period.

China's Outward Direct Investment in Africa

The empirical determinants of Chinas outward direct investment (ODI) in Africa are examined using an officially approved ODI dataset and a relatively new OECD–IMF format ODI dataset. Chinas ODI is found responding to the canonical economic determinants that include the market seeking motive, the risk factor, and the resources seeking motive. It is also affected by the intensity of trade ties and the presence of Chinas contracted projects. A host countrys natural resources have an impact on Chinas decision on how much to invest in the country rather than on whether to invest in the country or not. Chinas drive for Africas natural resources is mainly a recent phenomenon and, probably, became prominent after the “Going Global” policy adopted in 2002.

Capital Flight: China's Experience

We study the empirical determinants of China’s capital flight. In addition to the covered interest differential, our empirical exercise includes a rather exhaustive list of macroeconomic variables and a few institutional factors. Overall, our regression exercise shows that China’s capital flight is quite well explained by its own history and covered interest differentials. The other possible determinants offer relatively small additional explanatory power. It is also found that China’s capital flight responds differently to the components of covered interest differentials and to the positive and negative components of these variables. The response pattern, however, depends on the choice of data frequency. The general impression is that the monthly results are more intuitive than the quarterly ones.

Deviations from covered interest parity: The case of China

We study the empirical determinants of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) covered interest differential. The canonical macroeconomic variables including capital flight and the factors that affect country risk, and a few China-specific regulatory and institutional factors are considered. It is found that the effects of these canonical macroeconomic variables on the RMB covered interest differential are largely consistent with those reported in the literature. Further, the covered interest differential was affected by Chinas general capital control policy and its exchange rate reform program, but not its political risk index. The effects of these explanatory variables on the covered interest differential appear to work mainly via the forward premium rather than the interest rate differential component. The results are largely the same across the onshore and offshore RMB forward rates that cover different sample periods.

Corruption Distance and Foreign Direct Investment

We study the effects of “corruption distance,” defined as the difference in corruption levels between country pairs on bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI). Using a “gravity” model and the Heckman (1979) two-stage framework on a data set of forty-five countries from 1997 to 2007, we find that corruption distance adversely influences both the likelihood of FDI and the volume of FDI. A novel finding in this study is that we identify the asymmetric effect of corruption distance and find that the positive corruption distance, defined as the corruption distance from a high corruption source to a low corruption host country, is the prominent one that affects the behavior of bilateral FDI.

International Reserves and the Composition of Equity Capital Inflows

We study the effect of central banks’ international reserve hoardings on the composition of equity capital inflows, namely the ratio of portfolio equity investment (PEI) to foreign direct investment (FDI). Foreign investors’ decisions regarding the location and the type of equity capital investment might be influenced by a country’s level of international reserves. In a simple theoretical model, we show that higher reserves, thanks to their ability to lower exchange rate risk, reduce the risk premium of portfolio equity inflows. Hence, higher reserves are expected to increase the inflow of portfolio equity investment relative to FDI. We test this hypothesis for a sample of emerging markets during the period 1980-2007 using static and dynamic panel data methods. The results suggest that higher levels of reserves are associated with a larger ratio of PEI inflows relative to FDI. This result points to a collateral benefit of reserves that has been neglected so far: Reserves contribute to deeper domestic financial markets and facilitate domestic firms’ access to foreign financing.

Measuring the On-Going Changes in China's Capital Flow Management: A De Jure and a Hybrid Index Data Set

Liberalizing Chinas capital account may have profound implications for the RMB exchange rate, monetary policy autonomy, and Chinese and the world economy. Owing to the scarcity of proper measurements of Chinas capital controls, rigorous studies on the effectiveness and implications of Chinas capital controls are limited. We contribute to the literature by creating a new data set of indices including de jure and hybrid measurements of the changes in Chinas capital controls, hoping to inspire a new avenue of research in this area. In contrasting to other capital control indices that are compiled in a yes-or-no style, we quantify the intensity of changes in Chinas capital controls. Our indices reveal a persistent but uneven process of capital account liberalization in China between 1999 and 2012. This paper describes the de jure and hybrid indices, including indices for capital controls on individual asset categories, gross flows, inflows and outflows, as well as for residents and nonresidents asset transactions. Understanding that China usually implements policies in a step by step gradualist style, we extract those gradual information from the lines of the text in the IMFs Annual Report on Exchange Arrangement and Exchange Restrictions (AREAER) and some supplementary material from other sources.

The Missing Link: China's Contracted Engineering Projects in Africa

This paper examines the driving forces of Chinas contracted engineering projects in Africa. Using data on contracted engineering projects in 52 African countries over the period 1991–2010, three groups of hypotheses are tested: (1) economic motives; (2) political ties between China and Africa; and (3) host country characteristics. We find that countries get more projects if they have large market potential and are political allies of China. Our results also suggest that Forums on China–Africa Cooperation promote projects in Africa. In contrast, host country characteristics are hardly related to the amount of engineering projects received.

The Structural Behavior of China-US Trade Flows

We examine Chinese-US trade flows over the 1994-2012 period, and find that, in line with the conventional wisdom, the value of China’s exports to the US responds negatively to real renminbi (RMB) appreciation, while import responds positively. Further, the combined empirical price effects on exports and imports imply an increase in the real value of the RMB will reduce China’s trade balance. The use of alternative exchange rate measures and data on different trade classifications yields additional insights. Firms more subject to market forces exhibit greater price sensitivity. The price elasticity is larger for ordinary exports than for processing exports. Finally, accounting for endogeneity and measurement error matters. Hence, the purging the real exchange rate of the portion responding to policy, or using the deviation of the real exchange rate from the equilibrium level yields a stronger measured effect than when using the unadjusted bilateral exchange rate. Publication keywords: import, export, elasticity, real exchange rate, processing trade