Yongxin Zhang

Evaluation of WRF and HadRM Mesoscale Climate Simulations over the U.S. Pacific Northwest

Abstract This work compares the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Hadley Centre Regional Model (HadRM) simulations with the observed daily maximum and minimum temperature (Tmax and Tmin) and precipitation at Historical Climatology Network (HCN) stations over the U.S. Pacific Northwest for 2003–07. The WRF and HadRM runs were driven by the NCEP/Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-II Reanalysis (R-2) data. The simulated Tmax in WRF and HadRM as well as in R-2 compares well with the observations. Predominantly cold biases of Tmax are noted in WRF and HadRM in spring and summer, while in winter and fall more stations show warm biases, especially in HadRM. Large cold biases of Tmax are noted in R-2 at all times. The simulated Tmin compares reasonably well with the observations, although not as well as Tmax in both models and in the reanalysis R-2. Warm biases of Tmin prevail in both model simulations, while R-2 shows mainly cold biases. The R-2 data play a role ...

Changes in Moisture Flux over the Tibetan Plateau during 1979-2011 and Possible Mechanisms

AbstractChanges in moisture as represented by P − E (precipitation − evapotranspiration) and the possible causes over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) during 1979–2011 are examined based on the Global Land Data Assimilation Systems (GLDAS) ensemble mean runoff and reanalyses. It is found that the TP is getting wetter as a whole but with large spatial variations. The climatologically humid southeastern TP is getting drier while the vast arid and semiarid northwestern TP is getting wetter. The Clausius–Clapeyron relation cannot be used to explain the changes in P − E over the TP.Through decomposing the changes in P − E into three major components—dynamic, thermodynamic, and transient eddy components—it is noted that the dynamic component plays a key role in the changes of P − E over the TP. The thermodynamic component contributes positively over the southern and central TP whereas the transient eddy component tends to reinforce (offset) the dynamic component over the southern and parts of the northern TP (central T...

Extreme Precipitation and Temperature over the U.S. Pacific Northwest: A Comparison between Observations, Reanalysis Data, and Regional Models*

AbstractExtreme precipitation and temperature indices in reanalysis data and regional climate models are compared to station observations. The regional models represent most indices of extreme temperature well. For extreme precipitation, finer grid spacing considerably improves the match to observations. Three regional models, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) at 12- and 36-km grid spacing and the Hadley Centre Regional Model (HadRM) at 25-km grid spacing, are forced with global reanalysis fields over the U.S. Pacific Northwest during 2003–07. The reanalysis data represent the timing of rain-bearing storms over the Pacific Northwest well; however, the reanalysis has the worst performance at simulating both extreme precipitation indices and extreme temperature indices when compared to the WRF and HadRM simulations. These results suggest that the reanalysis data and, by extension, global climate model simulations are not sufficient for examining local extreme precipitations and temperatures owing t...

Climate Change on the Northern Tibetan Plateau during 1957–2009: Spatial Patterns and Possible Mechanisms

AbstractGridded daily precipitation, temperature minima and maxima, and wind speed are generated for the northern Tibetan Plateau (NTP) for 1957–2009 using observations from 81 surface stations. Evaluation reveals reasonable quality and suitability of the gridded data for climate and hydrology analysis. The Mann–Kendall trends of various climate elements of the gridded data show that NTP has in general experienced annually increasing temperature and decreasing wind speed but spatially varied precipitation changes. The northwest (northeast) NTP became dryer (wetter), while there were insignificant changes in precipitation in the south. Snowfall has decreased along high mountain ranges during the wet and warm season. Averaged over the entire NTP, snowfall, temperature minima and maxima, and wind speed experienced statistically significant linear trends at rates of −0.52 mm yr−1 (water equivalent), +0.04°C yr−1, +0.03°C yr−1, and −0.01 m s−1 yr−1, respectively. Correlation between precipitation/wind speed an...

Frozen soil degradation and its effects on surface hydrology in the northern Tibetan Plateau

Frozen soil was simulated at six seasonally frozen and seven permafrost stations over the northern Tibetan Plateau using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model for the period of 1962–2009. The VIC model resolved the seasonal cycle and temporal evolution of the observed soil temperatures and liquid soil moisture well. The simulated long-term changes during 1962–2009 indicated mostly positive trends for both soil temperature and soil moisture, and negative trends for soil ice content at annual and monthly time scales, although differences existed among the stations, soil layers, and seasons. Increases in soil temperature were due mainly to increases in daily air temperature maxima and internal soil heat conduction, while decreases in soil ice content were related to the warming of frozen soil. For liquid soil moisture, increases in the cold months can be attributed to increases in soil temperature and enhanced soil ice melt while changes in the warm months were the results of competition between positive precipitation and negative soil temperature effects. Precipitation and liquid soil moisture were strongly correlated with evapotranspiration and runoff but had various degrees of correlations with base flow during May–September. Seasonally frozen stations displayed longer and more active hydrological processes than permafrost stations. Slight enhancement of the surface hydrological processes at the study stations was indicated, due to the combined effects of precipitation changes, which were dominant, and frozen soil degradation.

Climate variability and relationships between top‐of‐atmosphere radiation and temperatures on Earth

The monthly global and regional variability in Earths radiation balance is examined using correlations and regressions between atmospheric temperatures and water vapor with top-of-atmosphere outgoing longwave (OLR), absorbed shortwave (ASR), and net radiation (RT = ASR − OLR). Anomalous global mean monthly variability in the net radiation is surprisingly large, often more than ±1 W m−2, and arises mainly from clouds and transient weather systems. Relationships are strongest and positive between OLR and temperatures, especially over land for tropospheric temperatures, except in the deep tropics where high sea surface temperatures are associated with deep convection, high cold cloud tops and thus less OLR but also less ASR. Tropospheric vertically averaged temperatures (surface = 150 hPa) are thus negatively correlated globally with net radiation (−0.57), implying 2.18 ± 0.10 W m−2 extra net radiation to space for 1°C increase in temperature. Water vapor is positively correlated with tropospheric temperatures and thus also negatively correlated with net radiation; however, when the temperature dependency of water vapor is statistically removed, a significant positive feedback between water vapor and net radiation is revealed globally with 0.87 W m−2 less OLR to space per millimeter of total column water vapor. The regression coefficient between global RT and tropospheric temperature becomes −2.98 W m−2 K−1 if water vapor effects are removed, slightly less than expected from blackbody radiation (−3.2 W m−2 K−1), suggesting a positive feedback from clouds and other processes. Robust regional structures provide additional physical insights. The observational record is too short, weather noise too great, and forcing too small to make reliable estimates of climate sensitivity.

ENSO anomalies over the Western United States: present and future patterns in regional climate simulations

Surface temperature, precipitation, specific humidity and wind anomalies associated with the warm and cold phases of ENSO simulated by WRF and HadRM are examined for the present and future decades. WRF is driven by ECHAM5 and CCSM3, respectively, and HadRM is driven by HadCM3. For the current decades, all simulations show some capability in resolving the observed warm-dry and cool-wet teleconnection patterns over the PNW and the Southwest U.S. for warm and cold ENSO. Differences in the regional simulations originate primarily from the respective driving fields. For the future decades, the warm-dry and cool-wet teleconnection patterns in association with ENSO are still represented in ECHAM5-WRF and HadRM. However, there are indications of changes in the ENSO teleconnection patterns for CCSM3-WRF in the future, with wet anomalies dominating in the PNW and the Southwest U.S. for both warm and cold ENSO, in contrast to the canonical patterns of precipitation anomalies. Interaction of anomalous wind flow with local terrain plays a critical role in the generation of anomalous precipitation over the western U.S. Anomalous dry conditions are always associated with anomalous airflow that runs parallel to local mountains and wet conditions with airflow that runs perpendicular to local mountains. Future changes in temperature and precipitation associated with the ENSO events in the regional simulations indicate varying responses depending on the variables examined as well as depending on the phase of ENSO.

Changes in Twentieth-Century Extreme Temperature and Precipitation over the Western United States Based on Observations and Regional Climate Model Simulations*

Trends in extreme temperature and precipitation in two regional climate model simulations forced by two global climate models are compared with observed trends over the western United States. The observed temperature extremes show substantial and statistically significant trends across the western United States during the late twentieth century, with consistent results among individual stations. The two regional climate models simulate temporal trends that are consistent with the observed trends and reflect the anthropogenic warmingsignal.Incontrast,nosuchcleartrends orcorrespondencebetweentheobservations andsimulationsis found for extreme precipitation, likely resulting from the dominance of the natural variability over systematic climate change during the period. However, further analysis of the variability of precipitation extremes shows strong correspondence between the observed precipitation indices and increasing oceanic Ni~ index (ONI), with regionally coherent patterns found for the U.S. Northwest and Southwest. Both regional climate simulations reproduce the observed relationship with ONI, indicating that the models can represent the large-scale climaticlinkswithextremeprecipitation.TheregionalclimatemodelsimulationsusetheWeatherResearchand

Changes in Moisture Flux over the Tibetan Plateau during 1979–2011: Insights from a High-Resolution Simulation

Net precipitation [precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P 2 E)] changes between 1979 and 2011 from a high-resolution regional climate simulation and its reanalysis forcing are analyzed over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and compared to the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) product. The high-resolution simulation better resolves precipitation changes than its coarse-resolution forcing, which contributes dominantly to the improvedP 2Echange in the regional simulation compared to the global reanalysis. Hence,the former may provide better insights about the drivers of P 2 E changes. The mechanism behind the P 2 E changes is explored by decomposing the column integrated moisture flux convergence into thermodynamic, dynamic, and transient eddy components. High-resolution climate simulation improves the spatial pattern of P 2 E changes over the best available global reanalysis. High-resolution climate simulation also facilitates new and substantial findings regarding the role of thermodynamics and transient eddies in P 2 E changes reflected in observed changes in major river basins fed by runoff from the TP. The analysis reveals the contrasting convergence/divergence changes between the northwestern and southeastern TP and feedback through latent heat release as an important mechanism leading to the mean P 2 E changes in the TP.

Relationships among top‐of‐atmosphere radiation and atmospheric state variables in observations and CESM

A detailed examination is made in both observations and the Community Earth System Model (CESM) of relationships among top-of-atmosphere radiation, water vapor, temperatures, and precipitation for 2000–2014 to assess the origins of radiative perturbations and climate feedbacks empirically. The 30-member large ensemble coupled runs are analyzed along with one run with specified sea surface temperatures for 1994 to 2005 (to avoid volcanic eruptions). The vertical structure of the CESM temperature profile tends to be top heavy in the model, with too much deep convection and not enough lower stratospheric cooling as part of the response to tropospheric heating. There is too much absorbed solar radiation (ASR) over the Southern Oceans and not enough in the tropics, and El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is too large in amplitude in this version of the model. However, the covariability of monthly mean anomalies produces remarkably good replication of most of the observed relationships. There is a lot more high-frequency variability in radiative fluxes than in temperature, highlighting the role of clouds and transient weather systems in the radiation statistics. Over the Warm Pool in the tropical western Pacific and Indian Oceans, where nonlocal effects from the Walker circulation driven by the ENSO events are important, several related biases emerge: in response to high SST anomalies there is more precipitation, water vapor, and cloud and less ASR and outgoing longwave radiation in the model than observed. Different model global mean trends are evident, however, possibly hinting at too much positive cloud feedback in the model.