Yu Nagai

Pathways to achieve universal household access to modern energy by 2030

A lack of access to modern energy impacts health and welfare and impedes development for billions of people. Growing concern about these impacts has mobilized the international community to set new targets for universal modern energy access. However, analyses exploring pathways to achieve these targets and quantifying the potential costs and benefits are limited. Here, we use two modelling frameworks to analyse investments and consequences of achieving total rural electrification and universal access to clean-combusting cooking fuels and stoves by 2030. Our analysis indicates that these targets can be achieved with additional investment of US

Transport electrification: A key element for energy system transformation and climate stabilization

200565‐86 billion per year until 2030 combined with dedicated policies. Only a combination of policies that lowers costs for modern cooking fuels and stoves, along with more rapid electrification, can enable the realization of these goals. Our results demonstrate the critical importance of accounting for varying demands and affordability across heterogeneous household groups in both analysis and policy setting. While the investments required are significant, improved access to modern cooking fuels alone can avert between 0.6 and 1.8 million premature deaths annually in 2030 and enhance wellbeing substantially.

Analyzing cooking fuel and stove choices in China till 2030

This paper analyzes the role of transport electrification in the broader context of energy system transformation and climate stabilization. As part of the EMF27 model inter-comparison exercise, we employ the MESSAGE integrated assessment modeling framework to conduct a systematic variation of availability, cost, and performance of particular energy supply technologies, thereby deriving implications for feasibility of climate stabilization goals and the associated costs of mitigation. In addition, we explore a wide range of assumptions regarding the potential degree of electrification of the transportation sector. These analyses allow us to (i) test the extent to which the feasible attainment of stringent climate policy targets depends on transport electrification, and (ii) assess the far-reaching impacts that transport electrification could have throughout the rest of the energy system. A detailed analysis of the transition to electricity within the transport sector is not conducted. Our results indicate that while a low-carbon transport system built upon conventional liquid-based fuel delivery infrastructures is destined to become increasingly reliant on biofuels and synthetic liquids, electrification opens up a door through which nuclear energy and non-biomass renewables can flow. The latter has important implications for mitigation costs.

Urban and rural energy use and carbon dioxide emissions in Asia

Many rural dwellings are still using low grade solid fuels with traditional stoves to meet their cooking and heating energy demands. This results in significant indoor pollution, which caused health hazards especially to women and children who are mostly exposed. The mode of energy consumption and types of stoves in use may change with changes in prosperity. Product specific and socio economic parameters may also influence these choices. This project aimed to analyze and model cooking fuel and stove choices including standard economic variables such as income, prices and costs, along with some variables unique to the developing country setting such as inconvenience costs. Understanding the factors that determine household choices and demand for cooking energy services formed the basis for developing policy scenarios that can accelerate a quicker transition to either modern fuels or improved stoves. MESSAGE-Access model was used is this study.