Yu. V. Sinyak

Russia's Energy Systems: Opportunities and Prospects

The paper considers macroeconomic forecasts of the performance of Russia’s Fuel and Energy Complex (FEC) up to 2030–2040 based on projections of economic development (worked out at the Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences), predictive assessments of the economic aspects of the production of major fuel types, Russia’s involvement in meeting the world’s demand for oil and gas, and the progress in the development of new energy sources. It is demonstrated that, according to the expected demand for energy carriers and the proposed changes in the FEC structure and technological base, carbon dioxide emissions by FEC facilities in the considered term will not exceed the 1990 level recorded in the Kyoto Protocol. It is shown that the annual volume of investment in the energy industry by 2030 should be at least double the level of the 2000–2010 requirements and by 2040 it is expected to increase by another 15–20%.

Recovery of economic growth in Russia

The presented paper of the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences analyzes key macroeconomic and financial measures of contemporary Russian anticrisis policy, substantiates the main directions of growth recovery in the basic sectors of the economy and social sphere in the medium and long term, and considers the features of the regional economic growth recovery policy.

State-of-the-art of Russia’s heat supply systems

The paper overviews the contemporary state of Russia’s heat supply systems and fuel consumption within its centralized part, the structure of heat consumption by economic sectors and types of industrial consumers. As shown, the centralized heat supply systems, providing the major part of country’s economy with low temperature heat, have heat losses and accident rate at a critical level. The state of decentralized heat supply systems of low rise buildings is not covered by national statistics at all. A second paper on the prospects and development of Russia’s heat supply systems will be published in a subsequent issue.

Absorption capacity of Russia’s forests and carbon dioxide emissions of fuel and energy systems

Carbon dioxide emissions from fuel combustion in the fuel and energy systems (FES) and production industries are estimated on the basis of an analysis of the long-term forecast of the development of the former. The carbon sequestration by forest and nonforest biomes is calculated. Based on the global balance of carbon fluxes, a long-term national carbon balance is drawn up. As follows from this balance, the carbon sequestration during the 21st century is even larger than emissions in FES development scenarios, which do not include any special restrictions on CO2 emissions. Thus, a considerable portion of foreign emissions is absorbed. This fact should be taken into account when developing national strategies for socioeconomic development.

Russia’s fuel and energy complex: Development prospects for the period to 2030

The article presents a long-term forecast for the Russian fuel and energy complex (FEC) for the period to 2030. Projections were made for two scenarios of Russia’s socioeconomic development, which were developed at the IEF in 2005–2006. FEC forecasts were built for three macroregions of Russia: the European part, the Urals and West Siberia, and East Siberia and the Far East. Key outcomes of the scenario forecasts correspond to the base case, which provides background concepts of the long-term development of the FEC. The regional aspect is analyzed in depth, which made it possible to build prognostic energy balances for three macroregions that take account of the economics of production, transportation, distribution, and utilization of energy resources.

Development prospects for the heating supply in Russia

The main factors that influence the consumption of heat energy in the centralized heating supply systems in the long term are discussed in this article. Consumption of heat energy by the population for space heating and hot water will be the most significant component of the demand. The possible extents of heat consumption and heat saving in the buildings of cities are estimated on the basis of an analysis of the advanced development of housing construction and the quality of dwelling units. It is shown that it is necessary to increase the annual creation of new pipeline networks to decrease accidents and heat losses. Several scenarios for the development of centralized heat supply systems within the limits of the long-term forecast of the FEC (Fuel and Energy Complex) development of the country until 2030 are discussed. It is shown that major changes in the structure of heat production can occur as limits increase for carbon dioxide emissions in centralized heat supply systems.

Economic assessment of potential world oil and gas resources

The paper estimates the generalization of world conventional and unconventional oil and gas resources taking into account the extent of their exploration and reliability. The economic assessments of their recovery are given with a breakdown by country (geographic areas). These generalized assessments of resources of hydrocarbon fuels are made for the first time in domestic practice. It has been shown that the imposition of limitations on greenhouse gas emissions will lead to the possible absence of demand for a considerable part of these resources during this century.

Analysis of the dynamics and structure of expenses in Russia’s oil and gas complex over the 2000–2011 period and forecasts until 2020

The authors of this study analyze trends in operating and capital expenses in Russia’s oil and gas sector in 2000–2011 using available statistical data and give their forecast estimates for the industry in the medium-term perspective.

Economic efficiency of synthetic motor fuels from natural gas

In this paper we study alternative ways to meet the demand for motor fuels growing in connection with the inevitable rise in oil prices over the next decade or two. One of these is to use natural gas as a motor fuel and as a raw material for synthetic motor oils. Calculation results of the comparative effectiveness of the gas-to-liquids (GTL) technology of motor fuel production from natural gas are presented. It is shown that these technologies look economically promising in countries, which have their own sources of natural gas, especially in small and remote gas fields.The problem with the use of alternative motor fuels, including synthetic motor fuels (SMFs), in terms of energy costs, the economy of their production and use, as well as their effects on human health, will be considered in this article.

Cost prospects for hydrogen centralized production

This paper looks at the most promising technologies of hydrogen production and transportation. Specially developed economical-technological models were used to develop projections of the expected cost of hydrogen in centralized systems of production and transportation. The projections reflect the wide variation of initial parameters and the uncertainty of technological and market conditions. The authorsÙ analysis identified the most promising technologies of centralized production of hydrogen, which can secure its entrance to the Russian domestic market within the next 15–20 years.