Yueyang Jiang

Characterization of wildfire regimes in Canadian boreal terrestrial ecosystems

Wildfire is a major disturbance in boreal terrestrial ecosystems. Characterizing fire regimes and projecting fire recurrence intervals for different biomes are important in managing those ecosystems and quantifying carbon dynamics of those ecosystems. This study used Canadian wildfire datasets, 1980-1999, to characterize relationships between number of fires and burned area for 13 ecozones and to calculate wildfire recurrence intervals in each ecozone. For the study period, wildfires were found to follow power-law relationships between frequency densities (number of fires normalized to unit bins) and burned areas in all ecozones. Power-law frequency-area relationships also held for both anthropogenic fires and natural fires in the 1980s and 1990s. For each Canadian ecozone using the parameters of the power-law frequency-area distributions, fire recurrence intervals were then calculated for wildfires equal to or larger than a given size of burned area. Fire recurrence intervals ranged from 1 to 32 years for burned areas > 2k m 2 , and from 1 to 100 years for burned areas >10 km 2 in every 10 000-km 2 spatial area for each ecozone. The information obtained through characterizing the wildfires and the fire recurrence intervals calculated in this study will provide guidance to wildfire risk managers throughout Canada. The findings of this study will also be a benefit to future efforts in quantifying carbon dynamics in Canadian boreal terrestrial ecosystems.

Contrasting soil thermal responses to fire in Alaskan tundra and boreal forest

Recent fire activity throughout Alaska has increased the need to understand postfire impacts on soils and permafrost vulnerability. Our study utilized data and modeling from a permafrost and ecosystem gradient to develop a mechanistic understanding of the short- and long-term impacts of tundra and boreal forest fires on soil thermal dynamics. Fires influenced a variety of factors that altered the surface energy budget, soil moisture, and the organic-layer thickness with the overall effect of increasing soil temperatures and thaw depth. The postfire thickness of the soil organic layer and its impact on soil thermal conductivity was the most important factor determining postfire soil temperatures and thaw depth. Boreal and tundra ecosystems underlain by permafrost experienced smaller postfire soil temperature increases than the nonpermafrost boreal forest from the direct and indirect effects of permafrost on drainage, soil moisture, and vegetation flammability. Permafrost decreased the loss of the insulating soil organic layer, decreased soil drying, increased surface water pooling, and created a significant heat sink to buffer postfire soil temperature and thaw depth changes. Ecosystem factors also played a role in determining postfire thaw depth with boreal forests taking several decades longer to recover their soil thermal properties than tundra. These factors resulted in tundra being less sensitive to postfire soil thermal changes than the nonpermafrost boreal forest. These results suggest that permafrost and soil organic carbon will be more vulnerable to fire as climate warms.

Modeling Large Fire Frequency and Burned Area in Canadian Terrestrial Ecosystems with Poisson Models

Large wildland fires are major disturbances that strongly influence the carbon cycling and vegetation dynamics of Canadian boreal ecosystems. Although large wildland fires have recently received much scrutiny in scientific study, it is still a challenge for researchers to predict large fire frequency and burned area. Here, we use monthly climate and elevation data to quantify the frequency of large fires using a Poisson model, and we calculate the probability of burned area exceeding a certain size using a compound Poisson process. We find that the Poisson model simulates large fire occurrence well during the fire season (May through August) using monthly climate, and the threshold probability calculated by the compound Poisson model agrees well with historical records. Threshold probabilities are significantly different among different Canadian ecozones, with the Boreal Shield ecozone always showing the highest probability. The fire prediction model described in this study and the derived information will facilitate future quantification of fire risks and help improve fire management in the region.

Recovery of arctic tundra from thermal erosion disturbance is constrained by nutrient accumulation: a modeling analysis

Abstract. We calibrated the Multiple Element Limitation (MEL) model to Alaskan arctic tundra to simulate recovery of thermal erosion features (TEFs) caused by permafrost thaw and mass wasting. TEFs could significantly alter regional carbon (C) and nutrient budgets because permafrost soils contain large stocks of soil organic matter (SOM) and TEFs are expected to become more frequent as the climate warms. We simulated recovery following TEF stabilization and did not address initial, short-term losses of C and nutrients during TEF formation. To capture the variability among and within TEFs, we modeled a range of post-stabilization conditions by varying the initial size of SOM stocks and nutrient supply rates. Simulations indicate that nitrogen (N) losses after the TEF stabilizes are small, but phosphorus (P) losses continue. Vegetation biomass recovered 90% of its undisturbed C, N, and P stocks in 100 years using nutrients mineralized from SOM. Because of low litter inputs but continued decomposition, younger SOM continued to be lost for 10 years after the TEF began to recover, but recovered to about 84% of its undisturbed amount in 100 years. The older recalcitrant SOM in mineral soil continued to be lost throughout the 100-year simulation. Simulations suggest that biomass recovery depended on the amount of SOM remaining after disturbance. Recovery was initially limited by the photosynthetic capacity of vegetation but became co-limited by N and P once a plant canopy developed. Biomass and SOM recovery was enhanced by increasing nutrient supplies, but the magnitude, source, and controls on these supplies are poorly understood. Faster mineralization of nutrients from SOM (e.g., by warming) enhanced vegetation recovery but delayed recovery of SOM. Taken together, these results suggest that although vegetation and surface SOM on TEFs recovered quickly (25 and 100 years, respectively), the recovery of deep, mineral soil SOM took centuries and represented a major ecosystem C loss.

Modeling carbon-nutrient interactions during the early recovery of tundra after fire.

Fire frequency has dramatically increased in the tundra of northern Alaska, USA, which has major implications for the carbon budget of the region and the functioning of these ecosystems, which support important wildlife species. We investigated the postfire succession of plant and soil carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) fluxes and stocks along a burn severity gradient in the 2007 Anaktuvuk River fire scar in northern Alaska. Modeling results indicated that the early regrowth of postfire tundra vegetation was limited primarily by its canopy photosynthetic potential, rather than nutrient availability, because of the initially low leaf area and relatively high inorganic N and P concentrations in soil. Our simulations indicated that the postfire recovery of tundra vegetation was sustained predominantly by the uptake of residual inorganic N (i.e., in the remaining ash), and the redistribution of N and P from soil organic matter to vegetation. Although residual nutrients in ash were higher in the severe burn than the moderate burn, the moderate burn recovered faster because of the higher remaining biomass and consequent photosynthetic potential. Residual nutrients in ash allowed both burn sites to recover and exceed the unburned site in both aboveground biomass and production five years after the fire. The investigation of interactions among postfire C, N, and P cycles has contributed to a mechanistic understanding of the response of tundra ecosystems to fire disturbance. Our study provided insight on how the trajectory of recovery of tundra from wildfire is regulated during early succession.

C–N–P interactions control climate driven changes in regional patterns of C storage on the North Slope of Alaska

ContextAs climate warms, changes in the carbon (C) balance of arctic tundra will play an important role in the global C balance. The C balance of tundra is tightly coupled to the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycles because soil organic matter is the principal source of plant-available nutrients and determines the spatial variation of vegetation biomass across the North Slope of Alaska. Warming will accelerate these nutrient cycles, which should stimulate plant growth.Objectives and methodsWe applied the multiple element limitation model to investigate the spatial distribution of soil organic matter and vegetation on the North Slope of Alaska and examine the effects of changes in N and P cycles on tundra C budgets under climate warming.ResultsThe spatial variation of vegetation biomass on the North Slope is mainly determined by nutrient mineralization, rather than air temperature. Our simulations show substantial increases in N and P mineralization with climate warming and consequent increases in nutrient availability to plants. There are distinctly different changes in N versus P cycles in response to warming. N is lost from the region because the warming-induced increase in N mineralization is in excess of plant uptake. However, P is more tightly cycled than N and the small loss of P under warming can be compensated by entrainment of recently weathered P into the ecosystem cycle. The increase in nutrient availability results in larger C gains in vegetation than C losses from soils and hence a net accumulation of C in the ecosystems.ConclusionsThe ongoing climate warming in Arctic enhances mineralization and leads to a net transfer of nutrient from soil organic matter to vegetation, thereby stimulating tundra plant growth and increased C sequestration in the tundra ecosystems. The C balance of the region is predominantly controlled by the internal nutrient cycles, and the external nutrient supply only exerts a minor effect on C budget.

Modeling long‐term changes in tundra carbon balance following wildfire, climate change, and potential nutrient addition

To investigate the underlying mechanisms that control long-term recovery of tundra carbon (C) and nutrients after fire, we employed the Multiple Element Limitation (MEL) model to simulate 200-yr post-fire changes in the biogeochemistry of three sites along a burn severity gradient in response to increases in air temperature, CO2 concentration, nitrogen (N) deposition, and phosphorus (P) weathering rates. The simulations were conducted for severely burned, moderately burned, and unburned arctic tundra. Our simulations indicated that recovery of C balance after fire was mainly determined by the internal redistribution of nutrients among ecosystem components (controlled by air temperature), rather than the supply of nutrients from external sources (e.g., nitrogen deposition and fixation, phosphorus weathering). Increases in air temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration resulted in (1) a net transfer of nutrient from soil organic matter to vegetation and (2) higher C : nutrient ratios in vegetation and soil organic matter. These changes led to gains in vegetation biomass C but net losses in soil organic C stocks. Under a warming climate, nutrients lost in wildfire were difficult to recover because the warming-induced acceleration in nutrient cycles caused further net nutrient loss from the system through leaching. In both burned and unburned tundra, the warming-caused acceleration in nutrient cycles and increases in ecosystem C stocks were eventually constrained by increases in soil C : nutrient ratios, which increased microbial retention of plant-available nutrients in the soil. Accelerated nutrient turnover, loss of C, and increasing soil temperatures will likely result in vegetation changes, which further regulate the long-term biogeochemical succession. Our analysis should help in the assessment of tundra C budgets and of the recovery of biogeochemical function following fire, which is in turn necessary for the maintenance of wildlife habitat and tundra vegetation.

Inter-comparison of multiple statistically downscaled climate datasets for the Pacific Northwest, USA

Statistically downscaled climate data have been widely used to explore possible impacts of climate change in various fields of study. Although many studies have focused on characterizing differences in the downscaling methods, few studies have evaluated actual downscaled datasets being distributed publicly. Spatially focusing on the Pacific Northwest, we compare five statistically downscaled climate datasets distributed publicly in the US: ClimateNA, NASA NEX-DCP30, MACAv2-METDATA, MACAv2-LIVNEH and WorldClim. We compare the downscaled projections of climate change, and the associated observational data used as training data for downscaling. We map and quantify the variability among the datasets and characterize the spatio-temporal patterns of agreement and disagreement among the datasets. Pair-wise comparisons of datasets identify the coast and high-elevation areas as areas of disagreement for temperature. For precipitation, high-elevation areas, rainshadows and the dry, eastern portion of the study area have high dissimilarity among the datasets. By spatially aggregating the variability measures into watersheds, we develop guidance for selecting datasets within the Pacific Northwest climate change impact studies.