Adam S. Parris

Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment

Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scales and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.

Dynamics of the Biophysical Systems of Jamaica Bay

Jamaica Bay is often a wondrous place of serenity and even solitude surrounded by a bustling metropolis of millions of people. In its seemingly remote stillness, one can catch glimpses of the Manhattan skyline and watch massive airplanes appear to float into John F. Kennedy International Airport. And although is appears wild and beautiful, little of the bay’s physical setting hasn’t been altered or manipulated over the past 150 years, including its geomorphology, and the sources of its freshwaters, its sediments, and its marshes. It is our “National Urban Estuary—a Bay of Contrasts” (Swanson, 2007). Resilience requires adopting a nested view of how social-ecological systems interact, and the widest and broadest nest is that of the rocks, sediments, waters, and energies of Jamaica Bay.

Achieving sustainability goals for urban coasts in the US Northeast: research needs and challenges

ABSTRACT In the wake of Hurricane Sandy and other recent extreme events, urban coastal communities in the northeast region of the United States are beginning or stepping up efforts to integrate climate adaptation and resilience into long-term coastal planning. Natural and nature-based shoreline strategies have emerged as essential components of coastal resilience and are frequently cited by practitioners, scientists, and the public for the wide range of ecosystem services they can provide. However, there is limited quantitative information associating particular urban shoreline design strategies with specific levels of ecosystem service provision, and research on this issue is not always aligned with decision context and decision-maker needs. Engagement between the research community, local government officials and sustainability practitioners, and the non-profit and private sectors can help bridge these gaps. A workshop to bring together these groups discussed research gaps and challenges in integrating ecosystem services into urban sustainability planning in the urban northeast corridor. Many themes surfaced repeatedly throughout workshop deliberations, including the challenges associated with ecosystem service valuation, the transferability of research and case studies within and outside the region, and the opportunity for urban coastal areas to be a focal point for education and outreach efforts related to ecosystem services.

Why Prospects for Resilience for Jamaica Bay

New York City woke up to issues of resilience on October 29, 2012. One might have thought that the first twelve years of the twenty-first century would have already made the point. Terrorism in 2001, major street protests in New York City in 2003 and 2011, an electricity blackout in 2003, major heat waves in 2006 and 2008, financial collapse and recession in 2009–2010, and other storms such as Tropical Storm Tammy in 2005 and Hurricane Irene in 2011, all significantly disturbed the everyday life of the city and in some cases put significant pressure on the established order. They were shocks that destroyed physical, social, and economic structures, and afterward required a process of recovery through which structures were rebuilt. The capacity of a system to recover from shocks such as these, and adapt to changing drivers and disturbances, is resilience.

The Future of Jamaica Bay: Putting Resilience into Practice

Hurricane Sandy shook New York City to its core. In the immediate aftermath, the emphasis was on recovery, but in the long-term perspective, Hurricane Sandy motivated the city as a whole to think about how it can not only be a sustainable place to live, but also be resilient to different kinds of shocks. This long-term view brought Jamaica Bay to the forefront of resilience discussions. The waters, wetlands, and communities of the Jamaica Bay watershed had long been a focal point for revitalizing a heavily stressed and affected coastal area through habitat restoration, improvements to public access, outdoor recreation, and sustainable development. City, state, and federal governments, all with jurisdiction in the bay, had sought science-based solutions to achieving integrated coastal zone management, with various levels of success. They also recognized that old approaches were not entirely working. Against this backdrop, the effects of Sandy on Jamaica Bay and the surrounding communities dramatically increased the urgency for putting new solutions into action.

Physical Climate Forces

More than 50 percent of Americans live in coastal watershed counties, a percentage that continues to increase (see section 1.3). In addition, the coast is home to the majority of major urban centers as well as major infrastructure such as seaports, airports, transportation routes, oil import and refining facilities, power plants, and military facilities. All of these human uses, which represent trillions of dollars in economic investment as well as valuable coastal ecosystems, are vulnerable in varying degrees to rising global temperature and hazards such as sea-level rise, storms, and extreme floods. Intense human activity over the past century has degraded many coastal environments and stressed natural ecosystems. Nationwide, nearshore areas and estuaries are polluted with excess nitrogen and other chemicals, toxic coastal algal blooms are increasing, fish stocks are depleted, wetland loss has been dramatic, and coral reefs are bleached and dying. Climate change exacerbates these stresses on ecosystems.