Ahmet Sözen

A Paradigm Shift in Turkish Foreign Policy: Transition and Challenges

Abstract This study sets out to explain the general characteristics of current Turkish foreign policy where it examines the interplay between important world events and emergent novel ideas at four different levels of analysis (conceptual setting, micro‐setting, domestic macro‐setting, and external macro‐setting). The new Turkish foreign policy vision and its normative strategy, derived from Davutoğlus Strategic Depth, have been blended with five new principles: balance between security and freedom; zero problems with neighbors; multidimensional and multi‐track policies; a new diplomatic discourse based on firm flexibility; and rhythmic diplomacy.

Negotiating a Resolution to the Cyprus Problem: Is Potential European Union Membership a Blessing or a Curse?

This article provides a game theoretic analysis of how the candidacy of Cyprus for European Union (EU) membership presents an important challenge for both the Unions eastern enlargement plans and current international efforts aimed at resolving the Cyprus problem. The conclusions indicate that the Cypriot conflict has entered a very delicate period in its protracted and troublesome history characterized by a deadlock game. Strong domestic and international factors have created the conditions for each side to follow a non-cooperative strategy aimed at unilateral victory rather than a compromise. In this regard, the EUs promise to the Greek Cypriots of membership in the Union, regardless of the settlement of the Cyprus problem, serves as a side payment that enforces non-cooperative strategy. Likewise, Turkeys overwhelming military superiority in the region and its unconditional support for the Turkish Cypriots strengthens the Turkish sides rigid position in the Cyprus negotiations. Under these circumstances, it is argued that an influential third party like the United States is needed to coordinate the efforts of the UN and EU to move the two parties away form a deadlock game. This effort requires a package approach to the issues surrounding the Cyprus problem, the islands membership in the EU, and EU-Turkey relations.

The Annan Plan: State succession or continuity

The Cyprus conflict has been on the international community’s agenda for more than half a century. The peace negotiations between the Turkish and the Greek Cypriots under the auspices of the UN since the 1960s have produced the fundamental solution parameters which were endorsed by the international community. Creation of a federal state; bi-zonal in terms of territory and bi-communal in terms of constitutional aspects; based on political equality of the two communities; having one international personality where sovereignty is shared between the two communities, is the formula for Cyprus which is endorsed by the international community. The most recent UN comprehensive solution plan, known as the Annan Plan, which includes the internationally endorsed parameters of the Cyprus solution, was put to the separate and simultaneous referenda of the Greek and Turkish Cypriots on 24 April 2004. The solution that called for the reunification of the island under the name United Cyprus Republic in a bi-zonal federal structure comprised of two constituent states, the Greek Cypriot State and the Turkish Cypriot State, was supported by 65 per cent of the Turkish Cypriots, yet voted down by 76 per cent of Greek Cypriots. The aim of this article is to account for the fundamental motive behind the recent Greek Cypriot response to the Annan Plan and based on the analysis to propose concrete steps for what needs to be done to keep the two conflicting sides within the range of the parameters which are endorsed by the international community. Next, we present the traditional positions of the two conflicting sides together with their basic motivations for following such positions regarding a solution in Cyprus. In addition, we lay down the basic parameters of the Annan Plan and recount the positions of the two sides with regard to the plan. Then we focus on the legal aspects of the most crucial conflict between the two sides regarding the creation of the United Cyprus Republic as it was envisaged in the Annan Plan. Finally we summarize the political and legal climate in Cyprus and propose concrete steps as to how the solution endorsed by the international community can be kept alive for the future peace initiatives that could lead to the resolution of the Cyprus conflict in the not so distant future.

The Turkish cypriot general elections of December 2003: Setting the stage for resolving the Cyprus conflict?

This article provides an evaluation of the December 2003 general elections in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). After a brief review of the electoral history of TRNC, its electoral and party systems, the article discusses election issues and how different parties used them. Election results are presented from a macro-geographical perspective. The influence of international actors on the election is assessed, followed by an evaluation of future prospects.

The Turkish Cypriot Legislative Election of February 2005: The Rise of CTP/BG

In the 24 April 2004 referenda on the Cyprus peace plan, 65% of the Turkish Cypriots voted Yes while 76% Greek Cypriots voted No. Subsequently, the international community has failed to end the isolation of the Turkish Cypriots as it promised in the pre-referenda period. It was against this background that on 20 February 2005 the Turkish Cypriot electorate went to the polls in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cypruss eighth legislative election. The election results clearly indicate that the Turkish Cypriots are still committed to the Annan Plan and EU membership.

The Turkish Cypriot Legislative Election of April 2009: Towards the ‘Last Roll of the Dice’ in the Cyprus Conflict?

On 19 April 2009, the Turkish Cypriots voted for a new legislature. The election outcome is important in understanding political trends in northern Cyprus before the April 2010 Presidential election, which will be significant for the current peace negotiations. The latter are considered by many observers as the last roll of the dice in terms of attempts to resolve the Cyprus conflict. The comeback of the old guard UBP is considered as the normalisation of politics in northern Cyprus. Although the UBP claims that it supports the ongoing peace negotiations, its historical baggage reveals just the opposite.