Michael Traut

Decarbonizing the UK energy system and the implications for UK shipping

Background: The current UK energy system relies heavily on shipped imports of fossil fuels. As climate change policies drive energy system decarbonization, fuel imports are likely to change. Results: Based upon future energy scenarios devised by the UK’s Department of Energy and Climate Change and a set of contrasting trading assumptions, this article explores the impact of energy system decarbonization upon freight work and CO2 emissions arising from fuel shipping. While oil and oil products are currently the most important contributors to both freight work and shipping CO2 emissions, by 2050 biofuels and biomass will become dominant energy commodities. Conclusion: The distance over which fuel travels is important and the greatest reductions in absolute CO2 emissions are achieved when fuel is sourced close to the UK.

CO2 abatement goals for international shipping

ABSTRACT The Paris Agreement, which entered into force in 2016, sets the ambitious climate change mitigation goal of limiting the global temperature increase to below 2°C and ideally 1.5°C. This puts a severe constraint on the remaining global GHG emissions budget. While international shipping is also a contributor to anthropogenic GHG emissions, and CO2 in particular, it is not included in the Paris Agreement. This article discusses how a share of a global CO2 budget over the twenty-first century could be apportioned to international shipping, and, using a range of future trade scenarios, explores the requisite cuts to the CO2 intensity of shipping. The results demonstrate that, under a wide range of assumptions, existing short-term levers of efficiency must be urgently exploited to achieve mitigation commensurate with that required from the rest of the economy, with virtually full decarbonization of international shipping required as early as before mid-century. Key policy insights Regulatory action is key to ensuring the international shipping sector’s long-term sustainability. For the shipping industry to deliver mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement, virtually full decarbonization needs to be achieved. In the near term, immediate and rapid exploitation of available mitigation measures is of critical importance. Any delay in the transition will increase the risk of stranded assets, or diminish the chances of meeting the Paris Agreements temperature commitments.