Ann Rumley

Carotid plaque, intima media thickness, cardiovascular risk factors, and prevalent cardiovascular disease in men and women : The British Regional Heart Study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE B-mode ultrasound is a noninvasive method of examining the walls of peripheral arteries and provides measures of the intima-media thickness (IMT) at various sites (common carotid artery, bifurcation, internal carotid artery) and of plaques that may indicate early presymptomatic disease. The reported associations between cardiovascular risk factors, clinical disease, IMT, and plaques are inconsistent. We sought to clarify these relationships in a large, representative sample of men and women living in 2 British towns. METHODS The study was performed during 1996 in 2 towns (Dewsbury and Maidstone) of the British Regional Heart Study that have an approximately 2-fold difference in coronary heart disease risk. The male participants were drawn from the British Regional Heart Study and were recruited in 1978-1980 and form part of a national cohort study of 7735 men. A random sample of women of similar age to the men (55 to 77 years) was also selected from the age-sex register of the general practices used in the original survey. A wide range of data on social, lifestyle, and physiological factors, cardiovascular disease symptoms, and diagnoses was collected. Measures of right and left common carotid IMT (IMTcca) and bifurcation IMT (IMTbif) were made, and the arteries were examined for plaques 1.5 cm above and below the flow divider. RESULTS Totals of 425 men and 375 women were surveyed (mean age, 66 years; range, 56 to 77 years). The mean (SD) IMTcca observed were 0. 84 (0.21) and 0.75 (0.16) mm for men and women, respectively. The mean (SD) IMTbif were 1.69 (0.61) and 1.50 (0.77) mm for men and women, respectively. The correlation between IMTcca and IMTbif was similar in men (r=0.36) and women (r=0.38). There were no differences in mean IMTcca or IMTbif between the 2 towns. Carotid plaques were very common, affecting 57% (n=239) of men and 58% (n=211) of women. Severe carotid plaques with flow disturbance were rare, affecting 9 men (2%) and 6 women (1.6%). Plaques increased in prevalence with age, affecting 49% men and 39% of women aged <60 years and 65% and 75% of men and women, respectively, aged >70 years. Plaques were most common among men in Dewsbury (79% affected) and least common among men in Maidstone (34% affected). IMTcca showed a different pattern of association with cardiovascular risk factors from IMTbif and was associated with age, SBP, and FEV1 but not with social, lifestyle, or other physiological risk factors. IMTbif and carotid plaques were associated with smoking, manual social class, and plasma fibrinogen. IMTbif and carotid plaques were associated with symptoms and diagnoses of cardiovascular diseases. IMTbif associations with cardiovascular risk factors and prevalent cardiovascular disease appeared to be explained by the presence of plaques in regression models and in analyses stratified by plaque status. CONCLUSIONS IMTcca, IMTbif, and plaque are correlated with each other but show differing patterns of association with risk factors and prevalent disease. IMTcca is strongly associated with risk factors for stroke and with prevalent stroke, whereas IMTbif and plaque are more directly associated with ischemic heart disease risk factors and prevalent ischemic heart disease. Our analyses suggest that presence of plaque, rather than the thickness of IMTbif, appears to be the major criterion of high risk of disease, but confirmation of these findings in other populations and in prospective studies is required. The association of fibrinogen with plaque appears to be similar to its association with incident cardiovascular disease. Further work elucidating the composition of plaques using ultrasound imaging would be helpful, and more data, analyzed to distinguish plaque from IMTbif and IMTcca, are required to understand the significance of thicker IMT in the absence of plaque.

Lipoprotein-Associated Phospholipase A2 as an Independent Predictor of Coronary Heart Disease

BACKGROUND Chronic inflammation is believed to increase the risk of coronary events by making atherosclerotic plaques in coronary vessels prone to rupture. We examined blood constituents potentially affected by inflammation as predictors of risk in men with hypercholesterolemia who were enrolled in the West of Scotland Coronary Prevention Study, a trial that evaluated the value of pravastatin in the prevention of coronary events. METHODS A total of 580 men who had had a coronary event (nonfatal myocardial infarction, death from coronary heart disease, or a revascularization procedure) were each matched for age and smoking status with 2 control subjects (total, 1160) from the same cohort who had not had a coronary event. Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2, C-reactive protein, and fibrinogen levels, and the white-cell count were measured at base line, along with other traditional risk factors. The association of these variables with the risk of coronary events was tested in regression models and by dividing the range of values according to quintiles. RESULTS Levels of C-reactive protein, the white-cell count, and fibrinogen levels were strong predictors of the risk of coronary events; the risk in the highest quintile of the study cohort for each variable was approximately twice that in the lowest quintile. However, the association of these variables with risk was markedly attenuated when age, systolic blood pressure, and lipoprotein levels were included in multivariate models. Levels of lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (platelet-activating factor acetylhydrolase), the expression of which is regulated by mediators of inflammation, had a strong, positive association with risk that was not confounded by other factors. It was associated with almost a doubling of the risk in the highest quintile as compared with the lowest quintile. CONCLUSIONS Inflammatory markers are predictors of the risk of coronary events, but their predictive ability is attenuated by associations with other coronary risk factors. Elevated levels of lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 appear to be a strong risk factor for coronary heart disease, a finding that has implications for atherogenesis and the assessment of risk.

Long-Term Interleukin-6 Levels and Subsequent Risk of Coronary Heart Disease: Two New Prospective Studies and a Systematic Review

Background The relevance to coronary heart disease (CHD) of cytokines that govern inflammatory cascades, such as interleukin-6 (IL-6), may be underestimated because such mediators are short acting and prone to fluctuations. We evaluated associations of long-term circulating IL-6 levels with CHD risk (defined as nonfatal myocardial infarction [MI] or fatal CHD) in two population-based cohorts, involving serial measurements to enable correction for within-person variability. We updated a systematic review to put the new findings in context. Methods and Findings Measurements were made in samples obtained at baseline from 2,138 patients who had a first-ever nonfatal MI or died of CHD during follow-up, and from 4,267 controls in two cohorts comprising 24,230 participants. Correction for within-person variability was made using data from repeat measurements taken several years apart in several hundred participants. The year-to-year variability of IL-6 values within individuals was relatively high (regression dilution ratios of 0.41, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.28–0.53, over 4 y, and 0.35, 95% CI 0.23–0.48, over 12 y). Ignoring this variability, we found an odds ratio for CHD, adjusted for several established risk factors, of 1.46 (95% CI 1.29–1.65) per 2 standard deviation (SD) increase of baseline IL-6 values, similar to that for baseline C-reactive protein. After correction for within-person variability, the odds ratio for CHD was 2.14 (95% CI 1.45–3.15) with long-term average (“usual”) IL-6, similar to those for some established risk factors. Increasing IL-6 levels were associated with progressively increasing CHD risk. An updated systematic review of electronic databases and other sources identified 15 relevant previous population-based prospective studies of IL-6 and clinical coronary outcomes (i.e., MI or coronary death). Including the two current studies, the 17 available prospective studies gave a combined odds ratio of 1.61 (95% CI 1.42–1.83) per 2 SD increase in baseline IL-6 (corresponding to an odds ratio of 3.34 [95% CI 2.45–4.56] per 2 SD increase in usual [long-term average] IL-6 levels). Conclusions Long-term IL-6 levels are associated with CHD risk about as strongly as are some major established risk factors, but causality remains uncertain. These findings highlight the potential relevance of IL-6–mediated pathways to CHD.

Physical activity and hemostatic and inflammatory variables in elderly men

Background—Physical activity is associated with lower risk of cardiovascular disease, but the mechanisms are uncertain. Hemostatic and inflammatory markers have been linked with risk of cardiovascular disease. We therefore examined the relationship between physical activity and hemostatic and inflammatory variables. Methods and Results—In 1998 to 2000, 20 years after the initial screening of 7735 men 40 to 59 years old from general practices in 24 British towns, 4252 subjects (77% of available survivors, now 60 to 79 old) attended for reexamination. A fasting blood sample was available in 4088 men. All men on warfarin (n=134) and men with incomplete data on physical activity (n=144) were excluded, leaving 3810 men for analysis. Physical activity showed a significant and inverse dose-response relationship with fibrinogen, plasma and blood viscosity, platelet count, coagulation factors VIII and IX, von Willebrand factor, fibrin d-dimer, tissue plasminogen activator antigen, C-reactive protein, and white cell count, even after adjustment for possible confounders. The effects were similar in men with and without prevalent cardiovascular disease. No relationship was seen with activated partial thromboplastin time, activated protein C resistance, hematocrit, or factor VII. An examination of changes in physical activity between baseline and 20 years later showed that inactive men who took up at least light physical activity had levels of blood variables approaching those who remained at least lightly active. Those who became inactive showed levels more similar to those who remained inactive. Conclusions—These data suggest that the benefit of physical activity on cardiovascular disease may be at least partly a result of effects on hemostasis and inflammation.

C-Reactive Protein, Interleukin-6, and Soluble Adhesion Molecules as Predictors of Progressive Peripheral Atherosclerosis in the General Population Edinburgh Artery Study

Background—The relationship between levels of circulating inflammatory markers and risk of progressive atherosclerosis is relatively undetermined. We therefore studied inflammatory markers as predictors of peripheral atherosclerotic progression, measured by the ankle-brachial index (ABI) at 3 consecutive time points over 12 years. Methods and Results—The Edinburgh Artery Study is a population cohort study of 1592 men and women aged 55 to 74 years. C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1), vascular adhesion molecule-1 (VCAM-1), and E-selectin were measured at baseline. Valid ABI measurements were obtained on 1582, 1081, and 813 participants at baseline and 5-year and 12-year follow-up examinations, respectively. At baseline, a significant trend was found between higher plasma levels of CRP (P≤0.05) and increasing severity of peripheral arterial disease (PAD), after adjustment for baseline cardiovascular risk factors. IL-6 at baseline (P≤0.001) was associated with progressive atherosclerosis at 5 years (ABI change from baseline), and CRP (P≤0.01), IL-6 (P≤0.001), and ICAM-1 (P≤0.01) were associated with changes at 12 years, independently of baseline ABI, cardiovascular risk factors, and baseline cardiovascular disease. Only IL-6 independently predicted ABI change at 5 years (P≤0.01) and 12 years (P≤0.05) in analyses of all inflammatory markers simultaneously and adjusted for baseline ABI, cardiovascular risk factors, and cardiovascular disease at baseline. Conclusions—These findings suggest that CRP, IL-6, and ICAM-1 are molecular markers associated with atherosclerosis and its progression. IL-6 showed more consistent results and stronger independent predictive value than other inflammatory markers.

Fibrin D-dimer and coronary heart disease - prospective study and meta-analysis

Background—It is unknown whether modest increases of fibrin D-dimer, a circulating marker of fibrin turnover, are relevant to coronary heart disease (CHD) in the general population. Methods and Results—We measured serum concentrations of D-dimer antigen in the stored baseline blood samples of 630 CHD cases and 1269 controls “nested” in a prospective cohort of 5661 men who were monitored for 16 years, and we conducted a meta-analysis of previous relevant studies to place our findings in context. In a comparison of men in the top third compared with those in the bottom third of baseline fibrin D-dimer values (tertile cutoffs, >94 versus <49 ng/mL), the odds ratio for CHD was 1.67 (95% CI, 1.31 to 2.13;P <0.0001) after adjustments for age and town. The odds ratio increased slightly after further adjustment for smoking, other classic risk factors, and indicators of socioeconomic status (1.79; 95% CI, 1.36 to 2.36). Strong correlations were observed of fibrin D-dimer values with circulating concentrations of C-reactive protein and serum amyloid A protein but not with smoking, blood lipids, blood pressure, and other risk factors. Conclusion—Although there may be an association between circulating D-dimer values and CHD, further studies are needed to determine the extent to which this is causal.

Hemostatic Factors as Predictors of Ischemic Heart Disease and Stroke in the Edinburgh Artery Study

Plasma fibrinogen is a consistent predictor of ischemic heart disease (IHD) in prospective studies, but there are fewer data relating other hemostatic variables to IHD and also to stroke. We therefore studied the relationships of plasma fibrinogen, von Willebrand factor antigen, tissue plasminogen activator (TPA) antigen, factor VII, and fibrin D-dimer to incidence of IHD and stroke and determined whether any associations could be explained by conventional risk factors and baseline heart disease. In the Edinburgh Artery study, 1592 men and women aged 55 to 74 years, randomly sampled from the general population, were followed prospectively over 5 years to detect fatal and nonfatal IHD and stroke events. During the 5 years, 268 new vascular events were identified. Baseline plasma fibrinogen was independently related to risk of stroke in multivariate analysis that adjusted for cigarette smoking, LDL-cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, and preexisting IHD (relative risk [RR] 1.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.17, 1.98). TPA antigen, and fibrin D-dimer were also independently associated with risk of stroke (RR 1.69,95% CI 1.22,2.35 and RR 1.96, 95% CI 1.12,3.41, respectively). Significant relationships were found between TPA antigen and myocardial infarction (P < or = .05). In older men and women, increased coagulation activity and disturbed fibrinolysis are predictors of future vascular events (both IHD and stroke).

C-reactive protein and its role in metabolic syndrome: mendelian randomisation study.

BACKGROUND Circulating C-reactive protein (CRP) is associated with the metabolic syndrome and might be causally linked to it. Our aim was to generate estimates of the association between plasma CRP and metabolic syndrome phenotypes that were free from confounding and reverse causation, to assess the causal role of this protein. METHODS We examined associations between serum CRP concentration and metabolic syndrome phenotypes in the British Womens Heart and Health Study. We then compared these estimates with those derived from a mendelian randomised framework with common CRP gene haplotypes to generate unconfounded and unbiased estimates of any causal associations. FINDINGS In a sample of British women, body-mass index (BMI), systolic blood pressure, waist-to-hip ratio, serum concentrations of HDL cholesterol and triglycerides, and insulin resistance were all associated with plasma CRP concentration. CRP haplotypes were associated with plasma CRP concentration (p<0.0001). With instrumental variable analyses, there was no association between plasma CRP concentration and any of the metabolic syndrome phenotypes analysed. There was strong evidence that linear regression and mendelian randomisation based estimation gave conflicting results for the CRP-BMI association (p=0.0002), and some evidence of conflicting results for the association of CRP with the score for insulin resistance (p=0.0139), triglycerides (p=0.0313), and HDL cholesterol (p=0.0688). INTERPRETATION Disparity between estimates of the association between plasma CRP and phenotypes comprising the metabolic syndrome derived from conventional analyses and those from a mendelian randomisation approach suggests that there is no causal association between CRP and the metabolic syndrome phenotypes.

Which Hemostatic Markers Add to the Predictive Value of Conventional Risk Factors for Coronary Heart Disease and Ischemic Stroke? The Caerphilly Study

Background— Few studies have examined whether hemostatic markers contribute to risk of coronary disease and ischemic stroke independently of conventional risk factors. This study examines 11 hemostatic markers that reflect different aspects of the coagulation process to determine which have prognostic value after accounting for conventional risk factors. Methods and Results— A total of 2398 men aged 49 to 65 years were examined in 1984 to 1988, and the majority gave a fasting blood sample for assay of lipids and hemostatic markers. Men were followed up for a median of 13 years, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) events were recorded. There were 486 CVD events in total, 353 with prospective coronary disease and 133 with prospective ischemic stroke. On univariable analysis, fibrinogen, low activated protein C ratio, D-dimer, tissue plasminogen activator (tPA), and plasminogen activator inhibitor-1 (PAI-1) were associated significantly with risk of CVD. On multivariable analyses with conventional risk factors forced into the proportional hazards model, fibrinogen, D-dimer, and PAI-1 were significantly associated with risk of CVD, whereas factor VIIc showed an inverse association (P=0.001). In a model that contained the conventional risk factors, the hazard ratio for subsequent CVD in the top third of the distribution of predicted risk relative to the bottom third was 2.7 for subjects without preexisting CVD. This ratio increased to 3.7 for the model that also contained the 4 hemostatic factors. Conclusions— Fibrinogen, D-dimer, PAI-1 activity, and factor VIIc each has potential to increase the prediction of coronary disease/ischemic stroke in middle-aged men, in addition to conventional risk factors.

Associations of circulating C-reactive protein and interleukin-6 with cancer risk: findings from two prospective cohorts and a meta-analysis.

ObjectiveWe investigated the associations of circulating C-reactive protein (CRP) and interleukin-6 (IL-6) with cancer risk.MethodsWe examined the associations of CRP and IL-6 with incident cancer in two prospective cohorts, the British Women’s Heart and Health Study (4,286 women aged 60–80) and the Caerphilly Cohort (2,398 men aged 45–59) using Cox regression and pooled our findings with previous prospective studies’ in fixed and random effects meta-analyses.ResultsCRP and IL-6 were associated with some incident cancers in our cohorts, but the numbers of cancer cases were small. In our meta-analyses elevated CRP was associated with an increased overall risk of cancer (random effects estimate (RE): 1.10, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.18) and lung cancer (RE: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.08, 1.61). Its associations with colorectal (RE: 1.09, 95% CI: 0.98, 1.21) and breast cancer risks (RE: 1.10, 95% CI: 0.97, 1.26) were weaker. CRP appeared unrelated to prostate cancer risk (RE: 1.00 0.88, 1.13). IL-6 was associated with increased lung and breast cancer risks and decreased prostate cancer risk, and was unrelated to colorectal cancer risk.ConclusionsOur findings suggest an etiological role for CRP and IL-6 in some cancers. Further large prospective and genetic studies would help to better understand this role.