Anne Kathrin Funk

Time-Varying and Regional Dynamics in Swiss Housing Markets

SummaryIn light of the strong increase of house prices in Switzerland in the 2000s and early 2010s, we analyze the effects of mortgage rate shocks, changes in housing demand & supply and business cycle conditions on house prices for the time period 1982–2013. We study intertemporal effects by employing Bayesian timevarying coefficients vector autoregressions (TVC-BVAR), regional effects by using regional BVARs and heterogeneity in housing markets by looking at housing segments. 50 % of house price variations can be explained by housing demand & supply. The response of house prices to mortgage rate shocks weakened after the 1990s real estate crisis and remained constant thereafter. However, owneroccupied apartment prices became again more sensitive to mortgage rate shocks during the recent house price boom. Regional effects are especially prevalent for regions Zurich and Geneva.

Konjunkturanalyse: Prognose 2016/2017, Preissenkungen haben Einbruch abgefedert – Abwertung hellt Aussichten auf

This text contains the autumn forecast 2015 of the KOF Swiss Economic Institute at ETH Zurich, released on 1 October 2015. The first part discusses recent economic developments abroad and in Switzerland, and presents the main forecast results across the various sectors of the economy. In the second part, detailed forecasts for Switzerland follow, split up into the main demand components of GDP. We expect the Swiss economy to grow by 0.9% in 2015, 1.4% in 2016 and 1.8% in 2017, respectively, representing a small upward revision compared with our last forecast from June 2015. In particular, the positive economic development in Europe and the depreciation of the Swiss franc during the second half of 2015 are specified as reasons for this adjustment. The negative price developments during the first half of 2015 are also newsworthy, as both the general price level and sales prices in certain sectors are falling.