Ashley J. Tellis

Interpreting China's Grand Strategy: Past, Present, and Future

Chinas continuing rapid economic growth and expanding involvement in global affairs pose major implications for the power structure of the international system. To more accurately and fully assess the significance of Chinas emergence for the United States and the global community, it is necessary to gain a more complete understanding of Chinese security thought and behavior. This study addresses such questions as: What are Chinas most fundamental national security objectives? How has the Chinese state employed force and diplomacy in the pursuit of these objectives over the centuries? What security strategy does China pursue today and how will it evolve in the future? The study asserts that Chinese history, the behavior of earlier rising powers, and the basic structure and logic of international power relations all suggest that, although a strong China will likely become more assertive globally, this possibility is unlikely to emerge before 2015-2020 at the earliest. To handle this situation, the study argues that the United States should adopt a policy of realistic engagement with China that combines efforts to pursue cooperation whenever possible; to prevent, if necessary, the acquisition by China of capabilities that would threaten Americas core national security interests; and to remain prepared to cope with the consequences of a more assertive China.

Measuring National Power in the Postindustrial Age

The arrival of post-industrial society has transformed the traditional bases of national power, and thus the methods used to measure the relative power of nations should be reassessed as well. Appreciating the true basis of national power requires not merely a meticulous detailing of visible military assets but also a scrutiny of larger capabilities embodied in such variables as the aptitude for innovation, the soundness of social institutions, and the quality of the knowledge base - all of which may bear upon a countrys capacity to produce the one element still fundamental to international politics: effective military power. The authors reconfigure the notion of national power to accommodate a wider understanding of capability, advancing a conceptual framework that measures three distinct areas - national resources, national performance, and military capability - to help the intelligence community develop a better evaluation of a countrys national power. The analysis elaborates the rationale for assessing each of these and offers ideas on how to measure them in tangible ways.

The Evolution of U.S.-Indian Ties: Missile Defense in an Emerging Strategic Relationship

The shift in Indian positions on missile defense in the context of the growing transformation of U.S.-Indian relations since the end of the Cold War, and particularly since the advent of the George W. Bush administration, has been remarkable. New Delhis traditional opposition to strategic defenses gave way to its current consideration of missile defense for a variety of reasons. These included structural factors related to the dissolution of U.S.-Indian antagonism associated with the bipolar configuration of the Cold War; the growing recognition in Washington and New Delhi of the threat posed by weapons of mass destruction and their associated delivery systems in the hands of hostile states intent on nuclear coercion; and the Indian and American desire to forge a new partnership grounded in democratic values but ultimately oriented toward promoting geopolitical equilibrium in Asia in the face of rising challengers such as China and problem states such as Pakistan. All of these factors combined to produce a dramatic new acceptance of strategic defenses as conducive to stability on the part of New Delhi. What is fascinating about this evolution is the manner in which missile defenses have come to reflect both an example of, and a means toward, the steady improvement in U.S.-Indian ties occurring in recent years. This, in turn, implies that a deepening bilateral relationship has become part of New Delhis larger solution to increasing Indias capacity to defeat those threats requiring active defenses in the future.

Pakistan's Record on Terrorism: Conflicted Goals, Compromised Performance

Islamabads inability to defeat the terrorist groups operating from its soil is rooted in many factors that go beyond its admittedly serious motivational deficiencies to combat terrorism.

The Merits of Dehyphenation: Explaining U.S. Success in Engaging India and Pakistan

Decoupling India and Pakistan in U.S. policy has been a dramatically successful example of the capacity to think strategically over the long term and implement complex policies that require diplomatic adroitness and political agility. It should be retained, although refined, by the next administration.

Balancing without Containment: A U.S. Strategy for Confronting China's Rise

Chinas rise constitutes the most serious geopolitical challenge facing the United States today. On current trends, China could—many say will—develop a national economy larger than that of the Unit...

U.S. Strategy: Assisting Pakistan's Transformation

If Pakistan is to become a moderate, peaceful Muslim state, its political process must be reformed indigenously. Washington should concentrate its assistance on safeguarding Pakistans nuclear estate and restoring democracy as part of a grand bargain with Islamabad.