Audrey A. Haynes

The Media, the Campaign, and the Message

This article examines the 1996 press releases issued by Republican presidential nominee candidates during the invisible primary and the subsequent stories generated by these press releases in newspapers. We systematically examine how campaigns structure their messages, which messages are transmitted by the press to the voting public, and what factors influence the transmission of the campaigns message. We find that campaign organizations disseminate a variety of messages to the media. Our analysis demonstrates that national media organizations are most receptive to informative (logistical) messages disseminated by candidates who are at the head of the field and most hostile to substantive (issue-oriented) messages regardless of their campaign of origin. By contrast, the state press is most open to substantive messages issued by lower-tier candidates. It appears from our results that the media, more than the campaign, bear the responsibility for the emphasis on the horse race.

Making an Impression: New Media in the 2008 Presidential Nomination Campaigns

Just as radio and television revolutionized the presidential election process in earlier decades, today the “new media” are making a significant imprint on how campaigns are conducted by candidates, covered by journalists, and evaluated by the voters. While the same basic goals for campaigns apply, the tools to accomplish these goals have expanded.

The Calculus of Concession Media Coverage and the Dynamics of Winnowing in Presidential Nominations

In this research we outline and evaluate a theory of the “calculus of concession”: when and why presidential primary candidates exit the race. Our explanation builds on prior studies of candidate attrition that traditionally emphasize money. However, we focus additional attention on the role of the press and its potential to influence a candidate’s exit decision. Data from the 2000 Republican presidential nomination campaign are used to test a Weibull model of candidate exit. Our results suggest that money is a critical component. But our research also demonstrates that the influence of money on candidates’ decisions depends on the candidate’s competitive position in the race. The availability of financial resources is far more critical to a close runner-up than to a less established long shot. Conversely, news coverage is far more critical to the decisions of longshot candidates early in the campaign than it is to big-shot candidates later on.

Campaign Strategy in Presidential Primaries, 1976-88

Candidates in multicandidate presidential nomination campaigns allocate their financial resources to maximize delegates and momentum. Gurian (1986) demonstrated that, in the campaigns of 1976 and 1980, well-known established candidates emphasized delegates while relatively unknown long-shot candidates emphasized momentum. The resource allocation strategy of established candidates is based on the simple fact that the candidate with a majority of the delegates wins the nomination. The resource allocation strategy of long-shot candidates is based on financial constraints: they lack the resources to compete effectively in delegate-rich primaries; thus, they attempt to maximize momentum, which leads to greater public (including financial) support. This study extends the previous research to the 1984 and 1988 campaigns with a more fully specified model and a more consistent measure of momentum. By doing so, we hope to contribute to the growing body of literature concerning nomination politics (Aldrich 1980; Bartels 1988; Campbell 1983; Castle 1991; Hammond 1980; Kessel 1988; Marshall 1981; Nice 1980; Norrander 1989; Parent, Jillson, and Weber 1987; Wattier 1983). In presidential nomination campaigns, candidates make strategic decisions to maximize their chances of nomination. Depending on competitive circumstances, candidates employ differing means to achieve that end. There exist at least two strategic goals that candidates pursue: maximizing delegates and maximizing momentum. By momentum, we refer to the consequences of winning or exceeding expectations in the early contests (Aldrich 1980). Success in the early contests tends to lead to extensive positive media coverage as well as increases in public recognition and financial support. According to their position in the competitive environment, candidates attempt to maximize a weighted combination of these goals. Therefore, resources are allocated to state contests in proportion to each states potential contribution to strategic goals. At the beginning of the campaign, many candidates are relatively unknown and thus are at a disadvantage in terms of attracting votes and contributions. Long-shot candidates prefer small, early, heavily covered primaries (like New Hampshire) because such contests are less expensive

The Role of Candidate Spending in Presidential Nomination Campaigns

One of the central questions about American presidential nominations concerns the effects of candidate spending on the outcomes of primaries and caucuses. This issue lies at the heart of normative concerns relating to political equality and access, representation, and democratic constraint on the presidency. Despite its importance, however, a good deal remains unclear about the extent to which, and under what conditions, money influences presidential nomination contest results. In this paper we explore these questions by testing a multivariate model of nomination outcomes in which we isolate the effects of spending on votes, controlling for the impact of other variables known to be important to the process. We find that candidate spending is an important component of success in the struggle for the presidential nomination. The relationship between spending and vote outcomes, however, is mitigated by other forces inherent in the battle.

Getting the Message Out: Candidate Communication Strategy During thr Invisible Primary

This article applies the theory of competitive (war) and substantive (marketing) communication strategies to the presidential nomination campaign, focusing primarily on the time period during which we expect the candidates to be most concerned with framing their campaigns-the invisible primary. We utilize candidate press releases to assess the accuracy of this theory and refine it. We then test the hypothesis that a candidates strategic goals, which are generally defined by the candidates competitive status relative to the field, determine the dominant type of message communicated during this penod. We find that there are definite patterns of messaging choice relative to candidate status. We also find that competitive messages dominate the “discourse” of candidates relative to the news media to a far greater extent than anticipated.

Why Do the News Media Cover Certain Candidates More Than Others? The Antecedents of State and National News Coverage in the 1992 Presidential Nomination Campaign

This article explores two approaches to campaign coverage in order to estimate their relative importance to state and national media coverage levels during presidential nomination campaigns: the horse race account and the campaign account. Using news coverage data from a sample of 21 state newspapers, three national newspapers, and the ABC World News Tonight, multivariate models of state and national candidate news coverage levels are estimated. The findings, although confirming the conventional wisdom that candidates who do well gain more media attention, also suggest that candidate activity can make a difference and that candidate factors can have a significant influence, whereas structural factors, such as the number of candidates competing, appear to have little influence on how the national and state media determine their distribution of coverage when other factors are present. Moreover, the state news media are strongly influenced by performance factors, but these are felt primarily through the priming influence of the national news media.

News Norms and the Strategic Timing and Content of Candidate Messages

Abstract In this paper, we ask what sets of factors influence the timing and the content of presidential candidate press releases. Utilizing a unique data set, we examine the influence of internal campaign factors as well as external media factors on campaign information dissemination during the invisible primary season. We find that both types of factors may influence the timing of press releases; as to content, however, media norms are less likely to alter a candidates general strategic message, which is dictated by his competitive status and national stature.

Going Negative: Press Responses to Candidate Attack Messages

SUMMARY In this paper we explore the relationship between candidate attack messages and news coverage during the earliest stages of the presidential nomination process. How effective are attack messages in generating media coverage? Are certain types of negative content more likely to gain coverage? Using data from the 1996 Republican presidential nomination campaign, we examine the candidate press releases that issued an attack on an opponent and the subsequent news coverage linked to it. We find that while candidates are more than willing to go negative even during the early stages of the campaign, these negative messages are no more or no less likely to generate press coverage during the early months of the presidential nomination campaign than are other types of candidate messages.

Georgia: Partisan Parity in the Peach State

Heading into the 2002 elections, Georgia was the only state that had not elected a Republican governor, and the state legislature continued to be held by Democrats. Organizationally, on the other hand, both parties had made dramatic strides since the 1970s, when they had a minimal presence at the local level. The decade of the 1990s brought diverging trends to the two parties. The county chairs we surveyed in 2001 tended to be more active in performing campaign activities than respondents from ten years before. Republican chairs overwhelmingly thought their organizations were getting stronger, though, while Democrats were more pessimistic about their parties. The parties became more ideologically extreme between 1991 and 2001. It remains to be seen whether the Republican trend in grassroots activity will translate into electoral success.