Axel Ockenfels

Late and Multiple Bidding in Second Price Internet Auctions: Theory and Evidence Concerning Different Rules for Ending an Auction

In second price Internet auctions with a fixed end time, such as those on eBay, many bidders submit their bids in the closing minutes or seconds of an auction. We propose an internet auction model, in which very late bids have a positive probability of not being successfully submitted, and show that late bidding in a fixed deadline auction can occur at equilibrium in auctions both with private values and with uncertain, dependent values. Late bidding may also arise out of equilibrium, as a best reply to incremental bidding. However, the strategic advantages of late bidding are severely attenuated in auctions that apply an automatic extension rule such as auctions conducted on Amazon. Field data show that there is more late bidding on eBay than on Amazon, and this difference grows with experience. We also study the incidence of multiple bidding, and its relation to late bidding.

An experimental solidarity game

Abstract 120 subjects played a three-person-game in which each player could win DM 10,00 with probability 2/3. Before the independent random decisions were made, the players had to decide under double blind conditions how much they were willing to give to one loser or each of two losers in the case of their winning. The great majority of subjects were willing to make substantial conditional gifts. The most common type of gift behavior does not lend itself to a straightforward interpretation as the result of altruistic utility maximization. We found an education effect, a gender effect, and a false consensus effect.

Types and patterns: an experimental East-West-German comparison of cooperation and solidarity

Abstract In a study of public good and solidarity experiments conducted in eastern and western Germany, we found in both games that eastern subjects behave in a significantly more selfish manner than do western subjects. Besides that we found that many qualitative results of both data sets are similar. Since our experiments were conducted in two parts of one nation, we present an unusually well controlled cross-cultural study by avoiding difficulties that usually arise in multinational settings. We conclude that cooperation and solidarity behavior seem to depend strongly on different culture-specific norms resulting from opposing economic and social histories in the two parts of Germany.

Engineering Trust: Reciprocity in the Production of Reputation Information

Reciprocity in feedback giving distorts the production and content of reputation information in a market, hampering trust and trade efficiency. Guided by feedback patterns observed on eBay and other platforms, we run laboratory experiments to investigate how reciprocity can be managed by changes in the way feedback information flows through the system, leading to more accurate reputation information, more trust, and more efficient trade. We discuss the implications for theory building and for managing the redesign of market trust systems. This paper was accepted by Teck Ho, decision analysis.

Measuring motivations for the reciprocal responses observed in a simple dilemma game

A reciprocal action is an action meant to have a similar influence on anothers payoff as anothers action has on ones own. One hypothesis asserts that reciprocal action is triggered by the reciprocators belief that anothers action was good or ill intended. The other hypothesis says that the reciprocator is simply acting to implement fixed preferences over payoff allocations. We report on an experiment that allows us to study both positive (reward) and negative (punishment) reciprocal action in a single framework. Knowing the preferences for payoff allocations is sufficient to account for nearly all the reciprocal action we observe in our experiment.

Impulse balance equilibrium and feedback in first price auctions

Abstract Experimental sealed-bid first-price auctions with private values in which feedback on the losing bids is provided yield lower revenues than auctions where this feedback is not given. The concept of weighted impulse balance equilibrium, which is based on a principle of ex-post rationality and incorporates a concern for social comparison, captures the data.

Managers and Students as Newsvendors

We compare how experienced procurement managers and students solve the newsvendor problem. We find that managers broadly exhibit the same kind of pull-to-center bias as students do. Also, managers use information and task training no better than students. The performance of managers is positively affected by the level of their education and their level in the organizational hierarchy. We discuss implications for theory and for how ordering might be improved in practice. This paper was accepted by Teck Ho, decision analysis.

Capacity Market Fundamentals

Electricity capacity markets work in tandem with electricity energy markets to ensure that investors build adequate capacity in line with consumer preferences for reliability. The need for a capacity market stems from several market failures. One particularly notorious problem of electricity markets is low demand flexibility. Most customers are unaware of the real time prices of electricity, have no reason to respond to them, or cannot respond quickly to them, leading to highly price-inelastic demand. This contributes to blackouts in times of scarcity and to the inability of the market to determine the market-clearing prices needed to attract an efficient level and mix of generation capacity. Moreover, the problems caused by this market failure can result in considerable price volatility and market power that would be insignificant if the demand-side of the market were fully functional. Capacity markets are a means to ensure resource adequacy while mitigating other problems caused by the demand side flaws. Our paper describes the basic economics behind the adequacy problem and addresses important challenges and misunderstandings in the process of actually designing capacity markets.

Bonus Payments and Reference Point Violations

We investigate how bonus payments affect satisfaction and performance of managers in a large, multinational company. We find that falling behind a naturally occurring reference point for bonus comparisons reduces satisfaction and subsequent performance. The effects tend to be mitigated if information about ones relative standing towards the reference point is withheld.

Does Competition Promote Trust and Trustworthiness in Online Trading? An Experimental Study

We investigate whether greater market competition improves or inhibits the ability of feedback systems in Internet markets to deliver trust and trustworthiness to the marketplace. Our investigation is grounded in the theory of signaling from information economics. Using methods from experimental economics, we create a laboratory online market where sellers face a moral hazard. We manipulate the level of market competition and the nature of the social network behind the feedback system and study the affect on trust, trustworthiness, and market efficiency. We find that competition in strangers networks, where market encounters are one-shot and reputation information is communicated through outside parties, improves trust, trustworthiness, and market efficiency. The efficiency advantage that partners networks, where a buyer can maintain a repeated relationship with a seller, have over strangers networks largely vanishes with the introduction of competition. This is because the difference in the pattern of social networking largely disappears. Overall, encouraging competition leads to more effective feedback systems in Internet markets. We discuss implications for trader strategy and Internet market design.