Virginie Piguet

Spatial Econometric Models for Simultaneous Systems: Application to Rural Community Growth in France

In this article, comparisons are made of several spatial econometric approaches to estimation of multiequation models of small region development applied to rural community growth. Spatial extensions of the Carlino and Mills’s 1987 and Boarnet’s 1994 models are estimated to analyze the spread of population and employment into 3,500 rural communes in six French regions. Results are compared for the Henry, Barkley, and Bao’s 1997 extension of the Boarnet model, the Carlino-Mills and Boarnet models, and three spatial autoregressive models suggested by Rey and Boarnet in 1998. Tests for spread and backwash effects in the spatial autoregressive model, and the Carlino-Mills and Boarnet models, with spatial autoregressive terms added, indicate that population growth spreads to rural communities from nearby areas but that evidence on employment spread is less robust. The Henry et al. modification to Boarnet adds insight into how urban growth affects proximate rural areas by decomposing the spatial cross-regressive term into rural area, urban core, and urban fringe effects.

Life Cycle Variability in the Microeconomic Determinants of Urban-Rural Migration

Abstract The objective of this study is to provide an analytical framework that would make it possible to identify the factors that account for individual mobility as a function of the position in the life cycle and of the geographic – i.e. urban or rural – origin. We start with the hypothesis that migration decisions result from a complex calculus where the individual aims at satisfying certain needs (occupational and residential) in the face of certain constraints (financial, familial or educational) while taking into account the local levels of the supply of labour, housing, environment, availability of services, etc. Those needs and constraints differ at every stage of an individual’s life cycle. The probability of migration between 1982 and 1990 is estimated using a national sub-sample extracted from the French Permanent Demographic Sample (EDP). The results show that, among individuals aged 15 to 24 in 1982, occupational concerns have a significant effect on migration choice, especially among the young who were living in a rural area in 1982. Among 25-44 year-olds, family structure (including the birth of children) and the type of accommodation play a prominent role in accounting for migration, while the occupation seems less important. Among the older age groups (those who were aged 45 to 64 in 1982), retirement combined with changes in family structure (the empty nest stage) affects the probability of migration, particularly for individuals who were residing in an urban area at the beginning of the period.

Does fiscal cooperation increase local tax rates in urban areas

Charlot S., Paty S. and Piguet V. Does fiscal cooperation increase local tax rates in urban areas?, Regional Studies. The main purpose of this paper is to assess the effects of fiscal cooperation on local taxation in a decentralized country using experience in French urban municipalities. A tax-setting model for local business tax is estimated, using spatial and panel econometric techniques, for the period 1993–2003. Controlling for population size, it is found that fiscal cooperation is likely to reduce tax competition and, as a consequence, to increase local business tax rates.

Les déterminants micro-économiques des migrations urbain-rural : leur variabilité en fonction de la position dans le cycle de vie

L’objectif de ce travail est de proposer une grille d’analyse qui permette de distinguer les facteurs explicatifs des mobilites des individus selon leur position dans le cycle de vie et selon leur origine geographique (urbaine, rurale). Nous partons de l’hypothese que les decisions de migration sont le resultat d’un arbitrage visant a satisfaire, sous contraintes (financieres, familiales, de qualification, etc.), certains besoins (d’ordre professionnel et residentiel) compte tenu des niveaux de l’offre locale de travail, logements, amenites naturelles, services aux particuliers, etc. Ces besoins et contraintes sont differents a chaque phase du cycle de vie de l’individu. L’estimation de la probabilite de migrer entre 1982 et 1990, realisee sur un sous-echantillon national extrait de l’echantillon demographique permanent (EDP), montre que, chez les individus âges de 15 a 24 ans en 1982, les preoccupations professionnelles contribuent significativement a expliquer les choix de migration, et ce, plus particulierement pour les jeunes qui residaient dans le rural en 1982. La structure familiale (agrandissement de la famille) et le statut d’occupation du logement jouent un role preponderant dans l’explication des migrations des 25-44 ans, alors que la situation professionnelle semble, pour eux, moins influente. Chez les plus âges (45-64 ans en 1982), le passage a la retraite, associe aux changements dans les structures familiales (depart des enfants), influe sur les probabilites de migration, notamment pour les individus qui residaient en milieu urbain en debut de periode.

Spatial influence of attractions on tourism development

ABSTRACT Destination planning raises questions relative to spatial organization within the destination and to the spatial extent of the gains generated by attractions. Thus, it is important to increase understanding and knowledge of the mechanisms by which attractions generate tourism development. The aim of this study is to analyze how tourist attractions influence tourism development within destination and what the spatial extent of this influence is. It is argued that both the appeal of tourist attractions and their spatial characteristics are determining factors. Thus, distinguishing local, spread, and diffuse attractions is essential and specific indicators were created to that purpose. Using count data models, an econometric analysis was conducted in order to test the effect of attractions on the number of hotel rooms in 2015 on the one hand, and on the number of employees in the tourism sector in 2014 on the other, in French municipalities. The study brings several original results. First, as in the case of green areas, some attractions may trigger the emergence of tourism development but may also have a depressive effect on the level of tourism development when they exceed a certain threshold. Second, the influence of sport and leisure facilities is more limited in space than for ski slopes, beaches and tourist sites, which confirms that the appeal of attractions determine the spatial extent of tourism development. Third, beyond a distance threshold, some attractions can generate negative spatial spillovers and have a depressive effect on tourism development.

Does the agro-food industry impact on changes in regional employment and population? The case of Denmark

Abstract This paper uses a regional adjustment model to compare employment and population change in Denmark from 1997 to 2006. The classical Boarnet model is modified by explicitly addressing employment in the agro-food, manufacturing, and services sectors, allowing an investigation into the role of the agro-industry in regional development. We find that employment growth in the agro-food sector has a positive impact on population growth, while employment growth in the agro-food sector has no significant impact on the employment growth in manufacturing and service sectors. We also find that agro-food sector employment is not particularly associated with rural areas. Agro-food employment has experienced higher growth in urban areas (with higher density) than in rural areas. Furthermore, there is no impact of easier access to the agricultural sector on agro-food employment.

Determinants of local population growth and economic development in France between 1990 and 2006

This paper analyzes local population and employment growth drivers for French data aggregated at a local level for the 1990-2006, 1990-1999, 1999-2006 periods. A simultaneous equation system, linking changes in local population and employment, is estimated. Jobs are split between export (manufacturing) and personal service sectors. The main findings are that ?people follow jobs? and simultaneously that ?jobs follow people?. However, the population only follows ?export? jobs and this effect is strengthening between the first and the second period. Whereas the ?jobs follow people? assertion is true whatever the period for the ?residential? sector, it is observed for the 1990-1999 period only for the export sector and this relation becomes insignificant for the period 1999-2006. While it is difficult to know which effect is dominant over the first period, the results lead to a dominant impact of ?people follow (export) jobs? in the most recent period.

Graduates and migration in France: between urban labour-market attraction and interest in amenities: An International Perspective

As in all developed countries, educated French people are concentrated in dense local labour markets. The chapter analyses migration flows using the declarations in the census on previous residential location (five years before) of people aged over five in 2008. It focuses on two populations: 20–64-year-olds to analyse the core of the French active population and 20–29-years-olds to capture youth specificities, distinguishing people with high and low levels of education. The chapter estimates extended gravity models to explain the origin–destination flows of the active population between 288 local labour markets using a zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) model. They provide a picture of the main links between middle- and long-distance flows and local characteristics that play a role in the professional and residential dimensions of migration choices. Migration flows of young educated people are essentially linked with the characteristics of local labour markets, rather than climates and amenities. Amenity variables, in particular climate conditions, also affect migration flows, especially flows of older people. The characteristics of the destination area impact flows of educated people more than flows of less-educated people.