Betty Hearn Morrow

Identifying and mapping community vulnerability

Disaster vulnerability is socially constructed, i.e., it arises out of the social and economic circumstances of everyday living. Most often discussed from the perspective of developing nations, this article extends the argument using American demographic trends. Examples from recent disasters, Hurricane Andrew in particular, illustrate how certain categories of people, such as the poor, the elderly, women-headed households and recent residents, are at greater risk throughout the disaster response process. Knowledge of where these groups are concentrated within communities and the general nature of their circumstances is an important step towards effective emergency management. Emergency planners, policy-makers and responding organisations are encouraged to identify and locate high-risk sectors on Community Vulnerability Maps, integrating this information into GIS systems where feasible. Effective disaster management calls for aggressively involving these neighbourhoods and groups at all levels of planning and response, as well as mitigation efforts that address the root causes of vulnerability.

Return delays and evacuation order compliance: the case of Hurricane Georges and the Florida Keys

Using interview data, we examine the effects of the heavily publicized delays in reentering the Florida Keys after Hurricane Georges on future evacuation intent. Of particular interest is the finding that the delays will have less influence on the future evacuation decisions of those who experienced them than on those who learned of them from secondary sources. Fear of return delays is only one factor in evacuation decision-making, albeit an understudied one. For this sample of evacuees, perceived risk is the most salient factor, and this risk assessment is not sufficiently diminished by the inconveniences, such as delays, associated with evacuation. For non-evacuees, however, the delay factor appeared to only increase their reluctance to evacuate the next time, despite their level of perceived risk.

Household Evacuation Decision Making and the Benefits of Improved Hurricane Forecasting: Developing a Framework for Assessment

Hurricane warnings are the primary sources of information that enable the public to assess the risk and develop responses to threats from hurricanes. These warnings have significantly reduced the number of hurricane-related fatalities in the last several decades. Further investment in the science and implementation of the warning system is a primary mission of the National Weather Service and its partners. It is important that the weather community understand the public’s preferences and values for such investments; yet, there is little empirical information on the use of forecasts in evacuation decision making, the economic value of current forecasts, or the potential use or value for improvements in hurricane forecasts. Such information is needed to evaluate whether improved forecast provision and dissemination offer more benefit to society than alternative public investments. Fundamental aspects of households’ perceptions of hurricane forecasts and warnings and their potential uses of and values for improved hurricane forecast information are examined. The study was designed in part to examine the viability of survey research methods for exploring evacuation decision making and for eliciting values for improved hurricane forecasts and warnings. First, aspects that affect households’ stated likelihood of evacuation are explored, because informing such decisions is one of the primary purposes of hurricane forecasts and warnings. Then, stated-choice valuation methods are used to analyze choices between potential forecast-improvement programs and the accuracy of existing forecasts. From this, the willingness to pay (WTP) for improved forecasts is derived from survey respondents.

Creation and Communication of Hurricane Risk Information

Reducing loss of life and harm when a hurricane threatens depends on people receiving hurricane risk information that they can interpret and use in protective decisions. To understand and improve hurricane risk communication, this article examines how National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters at the National Hurricane Center and local weather forecast offices, local emergency managers, and local television and radio media create and convey hurricane risk information. Data from in-depth interviews and observational sessions with members of these groups from Greater Miami were analyzed to examine their roles, goals, and interactions, and to identify strengths and challenges in how they communicate with each other and with the public. Together, these groups succeed in partnering with each other to make information about approaching hurricane threats widely available. Yet NWS forecasters sometimes find that the information they provide is not used as they intended; media personnel want streamlined informatio...

A Weather and Climate Enterprise Strategic Implementation Plan for Generating and Communicating Forecast Uncertainty Information

The American Meteorological Society (AMS) Weather and Climate Enterprise Strategic Implementation Plan for Generating and Communicating Forecast Uncertainty (the Plan) is summarized. The Plan (available on the AMS website at www.ametsoc.org/boardpges/cwce/docs/BEC/ACUF/2011-02-20-ACUF-Final-Report.pdf) is based on and intended to provide a foundation for implementing recent recommendations regarding forecast uncertainty by the National Research Council (NRC), AMS, and World Meteorological Organization. It defines a vision, strategic goals, roles and respon- sibilities, and an implementation road map to guide the weather and climate enterprise (the Enterprise) toward routinely providing the nation with comprehensive, skillful, reliable, and useful information about the uncertainty of weather, water, and climate (hydrometeorological) forecasts. Examples are provided describing how hydrometeorological forecast uncertainty information can improve decisions and outcomes in various socioeconomic areas. The impl...

Improving storm surge risk communication: Stakeholder perspectives

AbstractStorm surge associated with tropical and extratropical cyclones has a long history of causing death and destruction along our coastlines. With more than 123 million people living in coastal shoreline areas and much of the densely populated Atlantic and Gulf coastal areas less than 10 ft (∼3 m) above mean sea level, the threat has never been greater. In this article, we summarize and integrate the most intensive series of studies completed to date on communication of storm surge risk. These were primarily geographically focused stakeholder surveys for evaluating the storm surge communication perceptions and preferences of forecasters, broadcast meteorologists, public officials, and members of the public—each a primary user group for storm surge forecasts. According to findings from seven surveys, each group strongly supports the National Weather Service (NWS) issuing watches and warnings for storm surge, whether associated with tropical cyclones (TC) or extratropical (ET) cyclones. We discuss resul...

Understanding Public Hurricane Evacuation Decisions and Responses to Forecast and Warning Messages

This study uses data from a survey of coastal Miami-Dade County, Florida, residents to explore how different types of forecast and warning messages influence evacuation decisions, in conjunction with other factors. The survey presented different members of the public with different test messages about the same hypothetical hurricane approaching Miami. Participants’ responses to the information were evaluated using questions about their likelihood of evacuating and their perceptions of the information and the information source. Recipients of the test message about storm surge height and the message about extreme impacts from storm surge had higher evacuation intentions, compared to nonrecipients. However, recipients of the extreme-impacts message also rated the information as more overblown and the information source as less reliable. The probabilistic message about landfall location interacted with the other textual messages in unexpected ways, reducing the other messages’ effects on evacuation intentions. These results illustrate the importance of considering trade-offs, unintended effects, and information interactions when deciding how to conveyweatherinformation.Recipientsofthetestmessagethatdescribedtheeffectivenessofevacuationhad lowerperceptionsthattheinformationwasoverblown,suggestingthepotentialvalueofefficacymessaging.In addition, respondents with stronger individualist worldviews rated the information as significantly more overblown and had significantly lower evacuation intentions. This illustrates the importanceof understanding how and why responses to weather messages vary across subpopulations. Overall, the analysis demonstrates the potential value of systematically investigating how different people respond to different types of weather risk messages.

Weather forecast uncertainty information: An exploratory study with broadcast meteorologists

community about the effective provision and use of weather forecast uncertainty information. Recent evidence of this includes the 2006 National Research Council “Completing the Forecast” report, the AMS Ad-Hoc Committee on Uncertainty in Forecasts, and the 2008 updated AMS statement on probability forecasts. However, limited empirical information exists about the provision and use of weather forecast information in general, and even less is known specifically about forecast uncertainty information. Some work has begun to tackle the important knowledge gaps that exist, but much is yet to be learned. The forecast and communication system is complex, and includes many key “actors”—publicand private-sector operational forecasters; print, radio, and television media; public officials; and members of the public—that have different knowledge, perceptions, and roles. Although all components of this forecast system need to be studied to gain a complete understanding and begin to change what forecast information (including uncertainty) is communicated and how, this project focuses on broadcast meteorologists. Broadcast meteorologists are an important but rarely researched group from which much can be learned. As intermediaries between forecasters and the public, broadcasters are an essential component of the Weather Enterprise. Research has shown that local and cable television are primary sources of weather information for people for everyday weather and for major weather events. A recent nationwide survey by Lazo et al., published in the June 2009 BAMS, revealed that, on average, respondents get weather forecasts from local television over 33 times per month and from cable television over 18 times per month. These numbers illustrate the large audience that broadcast meteorologists reach. As a regular, tangible face of science, broadcasters have been the staple of providing weather forecast information—including uncertainty information—for decades. Broadcasters are unique in their role as both interpreters and communicators of forecast uncertainty information. Although their time on air is limited, broadcasters have opportunities for f lexibility and creativity in communicating their message. They can utilize numerous communication modes (e.g., verbally, graphically, numerically), have more latitude in the terminology they use than entities like the National Weather Service (NWS), and can more readily draw on new technology and increasingly sophisticated graphics packages for enhanced storytelling. Broadcasters also constantly receive feedback from their viewers, creating an end-to-end-to-end process. Moreover, broadcasters themselves have to receive, interpret, and utilize forecast uncertainty information. As both providers and users of uncertainty information, broadcast meteorologists have experientially developed knowledge and perceptions that can inform the broader meteorological community. To begin to tap into the knowledge and perceptions of the broadcast community and to better understand their role in the forecast process, we conducted exploratory research to assess broadcast meteorologists’ (a) use of and preferences for current and future forecast uncertainty information, and (b) perceptions of the public’s understanding of, use of, and preferences for forecast uncertainty information. This article is meant to accomplish two things. First, we illustrate how social science has a role in the Weather Forecast Uncertainty Information An Exploratory Study with Broadcast Meteorologists

Coastal emergency managers' preferences for storm surge forecast communication.

Storm surge, the most deadly hazard associated with tropical and extratropical cyclones, is the basis for most evacuation decisions by authorities. One factor believed to be associated with evacuation noncompliance is a lack of understanding of storm surge. To address this problem, federal agencies responsible for cyclone forecasts are seeking more effective ways of communicating storm surge threat. To inform this process, they are engaging various partners in the forecast and warning process.This project focuses on emergency managers. Fifty-three emergency managers (EMs) from the Gulf and lower Atlantic coasts were surveyed to elicit their experience with, sources of, and preferences for storm surge information. The emergency managers-who are well seasoned in hurricane response and generally rate the surge risk in their coastal areas above average or extremely high-listed storm surge as their major concern with respect to hurricanes. They reported a general lack of public awareness about surge. Overall they support new ways to convey the potential danger to the public, including the issuance of separate storm surge watches and warnings, and the expression of surge heights using feet above ground level. These EMs would like more maps, graphics, and visual materials for use in communicating with the public. An important concern is the timing of surge forecasts-whether they receive them early enough to be useful in their evacuation decisions.

A grass-roots feminist response to intimate violence in the Caribbean

Abstract Due in large part to feminist action, domestic violence against women is now recognized as a serious social problem in many contemporary societies. In spite of heightened awareness, state responses to protect and assist victims have usually been inadequate and underfunded. In many communities, feminists have organized to provide help to sisters in crisis. This project examines the origins, organization, and activities of an exceptionally effective grass-roots movement against violence on the small Caribbean island of St. Croix. It provides a useful model for other communities, particularly those of racial, ethnic, and economic diversity. The resource mobilization theory of social movements appears to best explain the emergence of this movement at a time when there was a large influx of new residents and capital on the island. Other relevant factors include extraordinary feminist leadership, the Caribbean cultural history of womens strength and activism, and the willingness of the Womens Coalition of St. Croix to deal with issues of race and ethnicity as well as gender in their struggle against all forms of social domination.