Birgitte Rasmussen

Sensor foresight—technology and market

Abstract A technology foresight study on sensor technology has been carried out in order to enhance a strategic outlook on sensor technology. The conclusions of the sensor technology report are based on: 1) technology mapping and scanning existing forward-looking literature on sensor technology, 2) a number of structured expert workshops with international participants, and 3) an international, internet-based Delphi survey with respondents from 24 countries. The study has analysed six categories of sensors (electromagnetic, mechanical, electrical, magnetic, chemical, nuclear) covering 13 sub-categories and a number of systemic issues. All sources of information (i.e. the literature survey, expert judgements, the questionnaire survey) indicate the same pattern regarding future attractiveness of sensor categories. MEMS (Micro-Electro-Mechanical Systems) and optical sensors, biochemical/biological sensors, and systemic issues are all expected to be the most interesting sensor categories over the next 10 years regarding market volume. Expectations for the future development of biosensors have conflicted. General technological key features are expected to be quite generic: low price, small size, robustness, dispensability, and the ability to be self-calibrating. Future sensors are expected to be integrated systems in multiple objects.

Managing Transdisciplinarity in Strategic Foresight

Strategic foresight deals with the long term future and is a transdisciplinary exercise which, among other aims, addresses the prioritization of science and other decision making in science and innovation advisory and funding bodies. This article discusses challenges in strategic foresight in relation to transdisciplinarity based on empirical as well as theoretical work in technological domains. By strategic foresight is meant future oriented, participatory consultation of actors and stakeholders, both within and outside a scientific community. It therefore allows multiple stakeholders to negotiate over how to attain a desirable future. This requires creative thinking from the participants, who need to extend their knowledge into the uncertainty of the future. Equally important is skilled facilitating in order to create a space for dialogue and exploration in a contested territory. Although strategic foresight has now been widely accepted for strategy-making and priority-setting in science and innovation policy, the methodologies underpinning it still need further development. Key findings are the identification of challenges, aspects and issues related to management and facilitation of strategic foresight exercises in complex systemic contexts that transcend science in relation to both the persons and problems involved.

Commercial use of GM crop technology: Identifying the drivers using life cycle methodology in a technology foresight framework

Abstract The complexity and advanced nature of modern biotechnology, and its extensive implications for society regarding prosperity, risk and ethics, make a view of the future that is comprehensible and transparent to society desirable. The objective of this feasibility study was to investigate methodologies for strategic planning and regulatory decision-making in technologies involving genetically modified (GM) crops. The planning and regulatory decisions of both the biotechnology industry and public authorities are considered. In the study, knowledge and opinion about a well-defined problem complex are systematically brought together in the consultation of a larger number of stakeholders and experts representing as many major perspectives as possible. On the basis of a test case on the development of a GM-ryegrass, this paper suggests a methodological approach to the uncertainties faced by the biotech industry and public authorities when GM crops are commercialized. The method used was a technology foresight (TF) framework, using a life cycle inventory (LCI) to define the problem complex, a stakeholder panel to identify drivers (of change) that influence the direction of future developments, and weighted stakeholder questionnaires to prioritize these drivers. Once quantified, the weighted stakeholder opinion generated a clear criterion for prioritizing drivers that were judged to be important in the future development of a GM-ryegrass but whose precise impact was uncertain. The four drivers prioritized were: being the first to market the GM-ryegrass, an efficient network on biomolecular know-how, public dialogue and participation in regulation procedures and utility value.

Technology foresight on Danish nano‐science and nano‐technology

Purpose – The purpose is to report on a Danish nano‐science and nano‐technology foresight project carried out in 2004.Design/methodology/approach – The foresight process had the following key elements: review of international technology foresight projects on nano‐technology; mapping of Danish nano‐science and nano‐technology; broad internet survey among interested parties; expert reports; workshops related to the expert reports; analysis of the dynamics of innovation within nano‐technology; survey on hazards and environmental and ethical aspects; group interviews with members of the public.Findings – The article reflects on the following methodological issues: domain classification and its influence on conclusions; the use of statements or hypotheses; trustworthiness of the foresight process and its recommendations.Practical implications – Recommendations from the project have already been used in decision‐making on R&D funding and in strategic deliberation in publicly funded institutions conducting R&D. ...

Prospective technology studies with a life cycle perspective

This article describes how life cycle assessment and technology foresight can be brought together to establish a comprehensive and multi-dimensional framework for prospective strategic analysis within new technologies and products. In two research projects, the traditions of life cycle assessment and technology foresight have been put together to analyse how the life cycle approach can help define the content and concepts of a technological system and ensure a comprehensive study with a clear focus. One project focuses on the future development of wind turbine technology; the other addresses genetically modified crops. Both projects applied the life cycle approach as a tool for mapping and scanning of the technological domain. This was also a valuable tool for designation of experts and information sources. Technology foresight methods were used to elucidate drivers of changes, potentials, possibilities and barriers for future development.

Risk and science: are we moving into the fourth age of risk concerns?

Is a new fourth age of risk concerns commencing, in which risk assessors, policymakers, and decision-takers have to rethink risk and apply interdisciplinary scientific advises in support of normative, holistic decisions pertaining to risk? There have been three overlapping ages of risk concerns: a technical age, a human-error age, and a socio-technical age. Based on observed tendencies, especially in the domain of new biotechnologies, there is a need to develop new frameworks for risk decisions that supplement technical, operational, and organizational aspects, and which also address matters such as normative values, transparency, uncertainty, and precaution. The knowledge and insight required to cover aspects from all four ages cannot be accomplished by input from any single person or discipline; solutions to risk issues require multilateral dialogues and cooperation across disciplines and institutions. We suggest that approval procedures for controversial technologies comprise a generic component emphas...

Functional modelling as basis for studying individual and organisational factors – application to risk analysis of salmonella in pork

Abstract A feasibility study on risk analysis of salmonella in pork, focusing on individual and organisational factors, has been conducted. The study addressed the pork production chain including the primary production of pigs, the transportation and the slaughter process in Denmark. The analysis was based on a functional modelling approach carried out in an interdisciplinary context involving veterinarian scientists, food safety specialists and scientists with experiences in the field of industrial safety. It was found important to establish a common understanding of food safety problems, with a goal of finding means to improve the possibilities for interdisciplinar discussions among all stakeholders.

An analytical approach to the implementation of genetically modified crops.

Public scepticism towards genetically modified (GM) crops is increasing. To address this, the risks and benefits of GM crops must be examined across scientific disciplines, and be discussed with the authorities, the agricultural industry and the consumers. In a feasibility study we have systematically analysed the challenges of the development and marketing of GM crops in Europe. A life-cycle inventory was used together with established technology foresight techniques in an interdisciplinary and empirical framework. The approach taken in this study established a dialogue between stakeholders and provided a framework for discussions about the future direction of GM crops.

Challenges in transdisciplinary technology foresight: Cognition and robotics

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to report on experiences and reflect on challenges in transdisciplinary technology foresight as exemplified by cognition and robotics research.Design/methodology/approach – The study was conducted as a broad transdisciplinary process involving users and producers of robot technology solutions as well as scientists and other experts in cognition and robotics. Transdisciplinarity is understood as the transcendence of disciplinary modes together with the involvement and participation of non‐scientists in problem formulation and knowledge provision. The study focuses on the possibilities for innovation at the crossroads where robotics and cognition meet.Findings – The paper reflects on the following methodological issues: medium‐ and long‐term research and innovation possibilities and barriers in a transdisciplinary context; the classification and framing of transdisciplinary fields; the facilitation of technology foresight processes; and the trustworthiness of the fores...

Transparency in decision-making processes governing hazardous activities

Transparent decisions are decisions in which the decision maker clearly presents to others the normative and factual premises behind the conclusions and explains the reasoning leading from these premises to the conclusion. Transparency thus involves uncovering, describing, documenting and communicating all the argumentative steps in the line of reasoning. It also involves acknowledging the weighting of any evidence drawn upon in reaching the final decision. It is recommended that each decision should be accompanied by an audit trail describing the premises justifying it. Uncertainties should be presented in connection with each possible adverse effect to indicate alternative scenarios to the most likely risk characterisation together with an evaluation of the reliability of each of the alternative scenarios. It is recommended that times and places for dialogue and participation be established. Transparency in this sense demands new efforts from the authorities and scientific advisors.