Kristian Borch

Managing Transdisciplinarity in Strategic Foresight

Strategic foresight deals with the long term future and is a transdisciplinary exercise which, among other aims, addresses the prioritization of science and other decision making in science and innovation advisory and funding bodies. This article discusses challenges in strategic foresight in relation to transdisciplinarity based on empirical as well as theoretical work in technological domains. By strategic foresight is meant future oriented, participatory consultation of actors and stakeholders, both within and outside a scientific community. It therefore allows multiple stakeholders to negotiate over how to attain a desirable future. This requires creative thinking from the participants, who need to extend their knowledge into the uncertainty of the future. Equally important is skilled facilitating in order to create a space for dialogue and exploration in a contested territory. Although strategic foresight has now been widely accepted for strategy-making and priority-setting in science and innovation policy, the methodologies underpinning it still need further development. Key findings are the identification of challenges, aspects and issues related to management and facilitation of strategic foresight exercises in complex systemic contexts that transcend science in relation to both the persons and problems involved.

Commercial use of GM crop technology: Identifying the drivers using life cycle methodology in a technology foresight framework

Abstract The complexity and advanced nature of modern biotechnology, and its extensive implications for society regarding prosperity, risk and ethics, make a view of the future that is comprehensible and transparent to society desirable. The objective of this feasibility study was to investigate methodologies for strategic planning and regulatory decision-making in technologies involving genetically modified (GM) crops. The planning and regulatory decisions of both the biotechnology industry and public authorities are considered. In the study, knowledge and opinion about a well-defined problem complex are systematically brought together in the consultation of a larger number of stakeholders and experts representing as many major perspectives as possible. On the basis of a test case on the development of a GM-ryegrass, this paper suggests a methodological approach to the uncertainties faced by the biotech industry and public authorities when GM crops are commercialized. The method used was a technology foresight (TF) framework, using a life cycle inventory (LCI) to define the problem complex, a stakeholder panel to identify drivers (of change) that influence the direction of future developments, and weighted stakeholder questionnaires to prioritize these drivers. Once quantified, the weighted stakeholder opinion generated a clear criterion for prioritizing drivers that were judged to be important in the future development of a GM-ryegrass but whose precise impact was uncertain. The four drivers prioritized were: being the first to market the GM-ryegrass, an efficient network on biomolecular know-how, public dialogue and participation in regulation procedures and utility value.

Prospective technology studies with a life cycle perspective

This article describes how life cycle assessment and technology foresight can be brought together to establish a comprehensive and multi-dimensional framework for prospective strategic analysis within new technologies and products. In two research projects, the traditions of life cycle assessment and technology foresight have been put together to analyse how the life cycle approach can help define the content and concepts of a technological system and ensure a comprehensive study with a clear focus. One project focuses on the future development of wind turbine technology; the other addresses genetically modified crops. Both projects applied the life cycle approach as a tool for mapping and scanning of the technological domain. This was also a valuable tool for designation of experts and information sources. Technology foresight methods were used to elucidate drivers of changes, potentials, possibilities and barriers for future development.

Risk and science: are we moving into the fourth age of risk concerns?

Is a new fourth age of risk concerns commencing, in which risk assessors, policymakers, and decision-takers have to rethink risk and apply interdisciplinary scientific advises in support of normative, holistic decisions pertaining to risk? There have been three overlapping ages of risk concerns: a technical age, a human-error age, and a socio-technical age. Based on observed tendencies, especially in the domain of new biotechnologies, there is a need to develop new frameworks for risk decisions that supplement technical, operational, and organizational aspects, and which also address matters such as normative values, transparency, uncertainty, and precaution. The knowledge and insight required to cover aspects from all four ages cannot be accomplished by input from any single person or discipline; solutions to risk issues require multilateral dialogues and cooperation across disciplines and institutions. We suggest that approval procedures for controversial technologies comprise a generic component emphas...

Functional modelling as basis for studying individual and organisational factors – application to risk analysis of salmonella in pork

Abstract A feasibility study on risk analysis of salmonella in pork, focusing on individual and organisational factors, has been conducted. The study addressed the pork production chain including the primary production of pigs, the transportation and the slaughter process in Denmark. The analysis was based on a functional modelling approach carried out in an interdisciplinary context involving veterinarian scientists, food safety specialists and scientists with experiences in the field of industrial safety. It was found important to establish a common understanding of food safety problems, with a goal of finding means to improve the possibilities for interdisciplinar discussions among all stakeholders.

An analytical approach to the implementation of genetically modified crops.

Public scepticism towards genetically modified (GM) crops is increasing. To address this, the risks and benefits of GM crops must be examined across scientific disciplines, and be discussed with the authorities, the agricultural industry and the consumers. In a feasibility study we have systematically analysed the challenges of the development and marketing of GM crops in Europe. A life-cycle inventory was used together with established technology foresight techniques in an interdisciplinary and empirical framework. The approach taken in this study established a dialogue between stakeholders and provided a framework for discussions about the future direction of GM crops.

Wind2050 – a transdisciplinary research partnership about wind energy

Strategic orientation and priority setting in energy planning are high on the political agenda in Denmark due to the ambitious national goal of fossil-free energy systems. One key issue concerns the involvement of stakeholders – and non-expert stakeholders in particular – in discussions on how to increase wind power installations (see also the contribution by Olsen in this volume). Another key issue is the emphasis on long-term societal interests and future possibilities regarding changes in the innovation system of wind power, i. e., how to take into account citizens’ multiple concerns regarding the impact of wind turbines on aspects such as environment and health or what is perceived as an unfair distribution of economic gains, as well as how wind turbines could contribute to local development or be seen as a local contribution to a national transition of the energy system. This calls for a transdisciplinary approach to science and innovation based on an exhaustive contextual understanding of interplay, divergences and relationships between stakeholders and methods for transparent strategic priority setting in research.

The Knowledge Future: Intelligent policy choices for Europe 2050: Report by an expert group on Foresight on Key Long-term Transformations of European systems: Research, Innovation and Higher Education (KT2050)

The Knowledge Future: Intelligent policy choices for Europe 2050 Report by an expert group on Foresight on Key Long-term Transformations of European systems: Research, Innovation and Higher Education (KT2050) Borch, Kristian; Daimer, Stephanie ; De Roure, David Charles ; Deketelaere, Kurt ; Dimitropoulos, Apostolos ; Felt, Ulrike ; Geuna, Aldo ; Glenn, Jerome ; Gulda, Krzysztof ; Kolar, Jana ; Gallart, Jordi Molas ; Narula, Rajneesh ; Ringland, Gill ; Schaper-Rinkel, Petra ; Smith, John ; Tschaut, Anna ; van der Wende, Marijk