Brendan Power

Near‐global impact of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation on rainfall

The accuracy of synoptic-based weather forecasting deteriorates rapidly after five days and is not routinely available beyond 10 days. Conversely, climate forecasts are generally not feasible for periods of less than 3 months, resulting in a weather-climate gap. The tropical atmospheric phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has a return interval of 30 to 80 days that might partly fill this gap. Our near-global analysis demonstrates that the MJO is a significant phenomenon that can influence daily rainfall patterns, even at higher latitudes, via teleconnections with broadscale mean sea level pressure (MSLP) patterns. These weather states provide a mechanistic basis for an MJO-based forecasting capacity that bridges the weather-climate divide. Knowledge of these tropical and extra-tropical MJO-associated weather states can significantly improve the tactical management of climate-sensitive systems such as agriculture.

Farming and the geography of nutrient production for human use: a transdisciplinary analysis

Summary Background Information about the global structure of agriculture and nutrient production and its diversity is essential to improve present understanding of national food production patterns, agricultural livelihoods, and food chains, and their linkages to land use and their associated ecosystems services. Here we provide a plausible breakdown of global agricultural and nutrient production by farm size, and also study the associations between farm size, agricultural diversity, and nutrient production. This analysis is crucial to design interventions that might be appropriately targeted to promote healthy diets and ecosystems in the face of population growth, urbanisation, and climate change. Methods We used existing spatially-explicit global datasets to estimate the production levels of 41 major crops, seven livestock, and 14 aquaculture and fish products. From overall production estimates, we estimated the production of vitamin A, vitamin B12, folate, iron, zinc, calcium, calories, and protein. We also estimated the relative contribution of farms of different sizes to the production of different agricultural commodities and associated nutrients, as well as how the diversity of food production based on the number of different products grown per geographic pixel and distribution of products within this pixel (Shannon diversity index [H]) changes with different farm sizes. Findings Globally, small and medium farms (≤50 ha) produce 51–77% of nearly all commodities and nutrients examined here. However, important regional differences exist. Large farms (>50 ha) dominate production in North America, South America, and Australia and New Zealand. In these regions, large farms contribute between 75% and 100% of all cereal, livestock, and fruit production, and the pattern is similar for other commodity groups. By contrast, small farms (≤20 ha) produce more than 75% of most food commodities in sub-Saharan Africa, southeast Asia, south Asia, and China. In Europe, west Asia and north Africa, and central America, medium-size farms (20–50 ha) also contribute substantially to the production of most food commodities. Very small farms (≤2 ha) are important and have local significance in sub-Saharan Africa, southeast Asia, and south Asia, where they contribute to about 30% of most food commodities. The majority of vegetables (81%), roots and tubers (72%), pulses (67%), fruits (66%), fish and livestock products (60%), and cereals (56%) are produced in diverse landscapes (H>1·5). Similarly, the majority of global micronutrients (53–81%) and protein (57%) are also produced in more diverse agricultural landscapes (H>1·5). By contrast, the majority of sugar (73%) and oil crops (57%) are produced in less diverse ones (H≤1·5), which also account for the majority of global calorie production (56%). The diversity of agricultural and nutrient production diminishes as farm size increases. However, areas of the world with higher agricultural diversity produce more nutrients, irrespective of farm size. Interpretation Our results show that farm size and diversity of agricultural production vary substantially across regions and are key structural determinants of food and nutrient production that need to be considered in plans to meet social, economic, and environmental targets. At the global level, both small and large farms have key roles in food and nutrition security. Efforts to maintain production diversity as farm sizes increase seem to be necessary to maintain the production of diverse nutrients and viable, multifunctional, sustainable landscapes. Funding Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, CGIAR Research Programs on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security and on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health funded by the CGIAR Fund Council, Daniel and Nina Carasso Foundation, European Union, International Fund for Agricultural Development, Australian Research Council, National Science Foundation, Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, and Joint Programming Initiative on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change—Belmont Forum.

Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change

The paper evaluates the effect of future climate change (as per the CSIRO Mk3.5 A1FI future climate projection) on cotton yield in Southern Queensland and Northern NSW, eastern Australia by using of the biophysical simulation model APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator). The simulations of cotton production show that changes in the influential meteorological parameters caused by climate change would lead to decreased future cotton yields without the effect of CO2 fertilisation. By 2050 the yields would decrease by 17xa0%. Including the effects of CO2 fertilisation ameliorates the effect of decreased water availability and yields increase by 5.9xa0% by 2030, but then decrease by 3.6xa0% in 2050. Importantly, it was necessary to increase irrigation amounts by almost 50xa0% to maintain adequate soil moisture levels. The effect of CO2 was found to have an important positive impact of the yield in spite of deleterious climate change. This implies that the physiological response of plants to climate change needs to be thoroughly understood to avoid making erroneous projections of yield and potentially stifling investment or increasing risk.

Closing system-wide yield gaps to increase food production and mitigate GHGs among mixed crop–livestock smallholders in Sub-Saharan Africa

In this study we estimate yield gaps for mixed crop–livestock smallholder farmers in seven Sub-Saharan African sites covering six countries (Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Ethiopia, Senegal and Burkina Faso). We also assess their potential to increase food production and reduce the GHG emission intensity of their products, as a result of closing these yield gaps. We use stochastic frontier analysis to construct separate production frontiers for each site, based on 2012 survey data prepared by the International Livestock Research Institute for the Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security program. Instead of relying on theoretically optimal yields—a common approach in yield gap assessments—our yield gaps are based on observed differences in technical efficiency among farms within each site. Sizeable yield gaps were estimated to be present in all of the sites. Expressed as potential percentage increases in outputs, the average site-based yield gaps ranged from 28 to 167% for livestock products and from 16 to 209% for crop products. The emission intensities of both livestock and crop products registered substantial falls as a consequence of closing yield gaps. The relationships between farm attributes and technical efficiency were also assessed to help inform policy makers about where best to target capacity building efforts. We found a strong and statistically significant relationship between market participation and performance across most sites. We also identified an efficiency dividend associated with the closer integration of crop and livestock enterprises. Overall, this study reveals that there are large yield gaps and that substantial benefits for food production and environmental performance are possible through closing these gaps, without the need for new technology.

Reconfiguring agriculture through the relocation of production systems for water, environment and food security under climate change

The prospect of climate change has revived both fears of food insecurity and its corollary, market opportunities for agricultural production. In Australia, with its long history of state-sponsored agricultural development, there is renewed interest in the agricultural development of tropical and sub-tropical northern regions. Climate projections suggest that there will be less water available to the main irrigation systems of the eastern central and southern regions of Australia, while net rainfall could be sustained or even increase in the northern areas. Hence, there could be more intensive use of northern agricultural areas, with the relocation of some production of economically important commodities such as vegetables, rice and cotton. The problem is that the expansion of cropping in northern Australia has been constrained by agronomic and economic considerations. The present paper examines the economics, at both farm and regional level, of relocating some cotton production from the east-central irrigation areas to the north where there is an existing irrigation scheme together with some industry and individual interest in such relocation. Integrated modelling and expert knowledge are used to examine this example of prospective climate change adaptation. Farm-level simulations show that without adaptation, overall gross margins will decrease under a combination of climate change and reduction in water availability. A dynamic regional Computable General Equilibrium model is used to explore two scenarios of relocating cotton production from south east Queensland, to sugar-dominated areas in northern Queensland. Overall, an increase in real economic output and real income was realized when some cotton production was relocated to sugar cane fallow land/new land. There were, however, large negative effects on regional economies where cotton production displaced sugar cane. It is concluded that even excluding the agronomic uncertainties, which are not examined here, there is unlikely to be significant market-driven relocation of cotton production.

Risk matrix approach useful in adapting agriculture to climate change

A risk management approach to assessing climate change impacts was completed for grazing, wheat and sorghum production systems in eastern Australia. This ‘risk matrix’ approach for wheat and sorghum was compared to results from simulation modelling of the impacts of projected climate change from general circulation models (GCM’s). In the modelling we used five GCM’s, the A1FI emissions scenario and a baseline climate (historical, 1960–2010); both the ‘risk matrix’ approach and modelling used a time horizon of 2030. While some people find the risk matrix process a highly effective tool for assessing climate change impacts others question its utility without the support of quantitative data such as that produced from integrated climate and agricultural models. Here we show the impacts of climate change on wheat and sorghum production systems using both approaches, and also show the risk, adaptation responses and vulnerability of all three production systems using the ‘risk matrix’ approach. Advantages and disadvantages of each approach are identified. The independent assessment showed the two approaches produced similar results. The ‘risk matrix’ showed little overall impact, risk or vulnerability for the central slopes from climate change using the adaptation strategies currently available for yield, protein levels, pests and disease, weeds and soil condition. The simulation modelling showed no statistically significant impact on yield, drainage, erosion and runoff, although more high-end extremes were evident. The risks to 2030 from anthropogenic climate change can largely be managed by continuing to implement best management practice and managing the risks already posed by climate variability. The ‘risk matrix’ approach was a useful tool under these circumstances to assess the impacts, adaptation, risk and vulnerability of climate change in the absence of local modelling information, and demonstrates the power of expert opinion to help understand and respond to climate change at the regional scale.

Forecasting the major crops for Australia and crop yield insurance: an integrated climate, biophysical and remote sensing approach

In Gommes, R.; Kayitakire, F. (Eds.). The challenges of index-based insurance for food security in developing countries: proceedings of a technical workshop organised by the EC [European Union] Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), 2-3 May 2012. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union