Cathryn E. Birch

A seamless assessment of the role of convection in the water cycle of the west African Monsoon

A suite of 40 day UK Met Office Unified Model simulations over West Africa during summer 2006 are analyzed to investigate the causes of biases in the position of the rainbelt and to understand the role of convection in the regional water budget. The simulations include climate, global operational, and limited area runs (grid spacings from 1.5 to 40 km), including two 12 km runs, one with parameterized and one with explicit convection. The most significant errors in the water cycle terms occur in the simulations with parameterized convection, associated with the diurnal cycle and the location of the convection. Errors in the diurnal cycle increase the northward advection of moisture out of the Sahel toward the Sahara but decrease the advection of moisture into the Sahel from further south, which limits the availability of moisture for Sahelian rainfall. These biases occur within the first 24 h, showing that they originate from the representation of fast physical processes, specifically, the convection scheme. Once these rainfall regimes have been established, the terms of the water budgets act to reinforce the biases, effectively locking the rainbelts latitude. One of the simulations with parameterized convection does, however, produce a better latitudinal distribution of rainfall because on the first day it is better able to trigger convection in the Sahel. Accurate representation of the diurnal cycle of convection and the ability to trigger convection in a high convective inhibition environment is key to capturing the water cycle of the region and will improve the representation of the West African Monsoon.

Modeling soil moisture-precipitation feedback in the Sahel: Importance of spatial scale versus convective parameterization

Feedback between soil moisture and precipitation influence climate variability in semiarid regions. However, serious concerns exist about the ability of coarse-scale global atmospheric models to depict one key aspect of the feedback loop, namely the sensitivity of daytime convection to soil moisture. Here we compare regional simulations using a single model, run at different spatial resolutions, and with convective parameterizations switched on or off against Sahelian observations. Convection-permitting simulations at 4 and 12 km capture the observed relationships between soil moisture and convective triggering, emphasizing the importance of surface-driven mesoscale dynamics. However, with the inclusion of the convection scheme at 12 km, the behavior of the model fundamentally alters, switching from negative to positive feedback. Similar positive feedback is found in 9 out of 10 Regional Climate Models run at 50 km. These results raise questions about the accuracy of the feedback in regional models based on current convective parameterizations.

Satellite detection, long-range transport, and air quality impacts of volcanic sulfur dioxide from the 2014-2015 flood lava eruption at Bárðarbunga (Iceland)

The 2014–2015 Barðarbunga-Veiðivotn fissure eruption at Holuhraun produced about 1.5 km3 of lava, making it the largest eruption in Iceland in more than 200 years. Over the course of the eruption, daily volcanic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions exceeded daily SO2 emissions from all anthropogenic sources in Europe in 2010 by at least a factor of 3. We present surface air quality observations from across Northern Europe together with satellite remote sensing data and model simulations of volcanic SO2 for September 2014. We show that volcanic SO2 was transported in the lowermost troposphere over long distances and detected by air quality monitoring stations up to 2750 km away from the source. Using retrievals from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI), we calculate an average daily SO2 mass burden of 99 ± 49 kilotons (kt) of SO2 from OMI and 61 ± 18 kt of SO2 from IASI for September 2014. This volcanic burden is at least a factor of 2 greater than the average SO2 mass burden between 2007 and 2009 due to anthropogenic emissions from the whole of Europe. Combining the observational data with model simulations using the United Kingdom Met Offices Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment model, we are able to constrain SO2 emission rates to up to 120 kilotons per day (kt/d) during early September 2014, followed by a decrease to 20–60 kt/d between 6 and 22 September 2014, followed by a renewed increase to 60–120 kt/d until the end of September 2014. Based on these fluxes, we estimate that the eruption emitted a total of 2.0 ± 0.6 Tg of SO2 during September 2014, in good agreement with ground-based remote sensing and petrological estimates. Although satellite-derived and model-simulated vertical column densities of SO2 agree well, the model simulations are biased low by up to a factor of 8 when compared to surface observations of volcanic SO2 on 6–7 September 2014 in Ireland. These biases are mainly due to relatively small horizontal and vertical positional errors in the simulations of the volcanic plume occurring over transport distances of thousands of kilometers. Although the volcanic air pollution episodes were transient and lava-dominated volcanic eruptions are sporadic events, the observations suggest that (i) during an eruption, volcanic SO2 measurements should be assimilated for near real-time air quality forecasting and (ii) existing air quality monitoring networks should be retained or extended to monitor SO2 and other volcanic pollutants.

The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis

Quantifying flood hazard is an essential component of resilience planning, emergency response, and mitigation, including insurance. Traditionally undertaken at catchment and national scales, recently, efforts have intensified to estimate flood risk globally to better allow consistent and equitable decision making. Global flood hazard models are now a practical reality, thanks to improvements in numerical algorithms, global datasets, computing power, and coupled modelling frameworks. Outputs of these models are vital for consistent quantification of global flood risk and in projecting the impacts of climate change. However, the urgency of these tasks means that outputs are being used as soon as they are made available and before such methods have been adequately tested. To address this, we compare multi-probability flood hazard maps for Africa from six global models and show wide variation in their flood hazard, economic loss and exposed population estimates, which has serious implications for model credibility. While there is around 30%–40% agreement in flood extent, our results show that even at continental scales, there are significant differences in hazard magnitude and spatial pattern between models, notably in deltas, arid/semi-arid zones and wetlands. This study is an important step towards a better understanding of modelling global flood hazard, which is urgently required for both current risk and climate change projections.

Scale Interactions between the MJO and the Western Maritime Continent

State-of-the-art regional climate model simulations that are able to resolve key mesoscale circulations are used, for the first time, to understand the interaction between the large-scale convective environment of the MJO and processes governing the strong diurnal cycle over the islands of the Maritime Continent (MC). Convection is sustained in the late afternoon just inland of the coasts due to sea breeze convergence. Previous work has shown that the variability in MC rainfall associated with the MJO is manifested in changes to this diurnal cycle; land-based rainfall peaks before the active convective envelope of the MJO reaches the MC, whereas oceanic rainfall rates peak whilst the active envelope resides over the region. The model simulations show that the main controls on oceanic MC rainfall in the early active MJO phases are the large-scale environment and atmospheric stability, followed by high oceanic latent heat flux forced by high near-surface winds in the later active MJO phases. Over land, rainfall peaks before the main convective envelope arrives (in agreement with observations), even though the large-scale convective environment is only moderately favourable for convection. The causes of this early rainfall peak are convective triggers from land-sea breeze circulations that are strong due to high surface insolation and surface heating. During the peak MJO phases cloud cover increases and surface insolation decreases, which weakens the strength of the mesoscale circulations and reduces land-based rainfall, even though the large-scale environment remains favourable for convection at this time. Hence, scale interactions are an essential part of the MJO transition across the MC.

A Parameterization of Convective Dust Storms for Models with Mass-Flux Convection Schemes

AbstractCold pool outflows, generated by downdrafts from moist convection, can generate strong winds and therefore uplift of mineral dust. These so-called haboob convective dust storms occur over all major dust source areas worldwide and contribute substantially to emissions in northern Africa, the world’s largest source. Most large-scale models lack convective dust storms because they do not resolve moist convection, relying instead on convection schemes. The authors suggest a parameterization of convective dust storms to account for their contribution in such large-scale models. The parameterization is based on a simple conceptual model, in which the downdraft mass flux from the convection scheme spreads out radially in a cylindrical cold pool. The parameterization is tested with a set of Met Office Unified Model runs for June and July 2006 over West Africa. It is calibrated with a convection-permitting run and applied to a convection-parameterized run. The parameterization successfully produces the ext...

The scale dependence and structure of convergence fields preceding the initiation of deep convection

Links between convergence and convection are poor in global models, and poor representation of convection is the source of many model biases in the tropics. State-of-the-art convection-permitting simulations allow us to analyze realistic convection statistically. The analysis of fractal dimension is used to show that in convection-permitting simulations (grid spacings 1.5, 4, and 12 km) of the West African monsoon, 50% of deep convective initiations occur in the near vicinity of low-level boundary layer convergence lines that are orientated along the mean wind. In these simulations, more than 80% of the initiations occur within large-scale (300 × 300 km) convergence, with some 20% in large-scale divergence, and almost all cases occur within local scale (60 × 60 km) convergence. The behavior alters in a simulation with a convection scheme and a grid spacing of 12 km; initiation is less frequent over convergence lines, and there is less dependency on high-magnitude low-level local convergence.

The performance of a global and mesoscale model over the central Arctic Ocean during late summer

Measurements of turbulent fluxes, clouds, radiation, and profiles of mean meteorological parameters, obtained over an ice floe in the central Arctic Ocean during the Arctic Ocean Experiment 2001, are used to evaluate the performance of U.K. Met Office Unified Model (MetUM) and Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) in the lower atmosphere during late summer. Both the latest version of the MetUM and the version operational in 2001 are used in the comparison to gain an insight as to whether updates to the model have improved its performance over the Arctic region. As with previous model evaluations over the Arctic, the pressure, humidity, and wind fields are satisfactorily represented in all three models. The older version of the MetUM underpredicts the occurrence of low-level Arctic clouds, and the liquid and ice cloud water partitioning is inaccurate compared to observations made during SHEBA. In the newer version, simulated ice and liquid water paths are improved, but the occurrence of low-level clouds are overpredicted. Both versions overestimate the amount of radiative heat absorbed at the surface, leading to a significant feedback of errors involving the surface albedo, which causes a large positive bias the surface temperature. Cloud forcing in COAMPS produces similar biases in the downwelling shortwave and longwave radiation fluxes to those produced by UM(G25). The surface albedo parameterization is, however, more realistic, and thus, the total heat flux and surface temperature are more accurate for the majority of the observation period.

Sea-Breeze Dynamics and Convection Initiation: The Influence of Convective Parameterization in Weather and Climate Model Biases

AbstractThere are some long-established biases in atmospheric models that originate from the representation of tropical convection. Previously, it has been difficult to separate cause and effect because errors are often the result of a number of interacting biases. Recently, researchers have gained the ability to run multiyear global climate model simulations with grid spacings small enough to switch the convective parameterization off, which permits the convection to develop explicitly. There are clear improvements to the initiation of convective storms and the diurnal cycle of rainfall in the convection-permitting simulations, which enables a new process-study approach to model bias identification. In this study, multiyear global atmosphere-only climate simulations with and without convective parameterization are undertaken with the Met Office Unified Model and are analyzed over the Maritime Continent region, where convergence from sea-breeze circulations is key for convection initiation. The analysis s...

A Characterization of Cold Pools in the West African Sahel

AbstractCold pools are integral components of squall-line mesoscale convective systems and the West African monsoon, but are poorly represented in operational global models. Observations of 38 cold pools made at Niamey, Niger, during the 2006 African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) campaign (1 June–30 September 2006), are used to generate a seasonal characterization of cold pool properties by quantifying related changes in surface meteorological variables. Cold pools were associated with temperature decreases of 2°–14°C, pressure increases of 0–8 hPa, and wind gusts of 3–22 m s−1. Comparison with published values of similar variables from the U.S. Great Plains showed comparable differences. The leading part of most cold pools had decreased water vapor mixing ratios compared to the environment, with moister air, likely related to precipitation, approximately 30 min behind the gust front. A novel diagnostic used to quantify how consistent observed cold pool temperatures are with saturated or unsat...