Catia M. Domingues

Revisiting the Earth's sea-level and energy budgets from 1961 to 2008

We review the sea-level and energy budgets together from 1961, using recent and updated estimates of all terms. From 1972 to 2008, the observed sea-level rise (1.8 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 from tide gauges alone and 2.1 ± 0.2 mm yr−1 from a combination of tide gauges and altimeter observations) agrees well with the sum of contributions (1.8 ± 0.4 mm yr−1) in magnitude and with both having similar increases in the rate of rise during the period. The largest contributions come from ocean thermal expansion (0.8 mm yr−1) and the melting of glaciers and ice caps (0.7 mm yr−1), with Greenland and Antarctica contributing about 0.4 mm yr−1. The cryospheric contributions increase through the period (particularly in the 1990s) but the thermosteric contribution increases less rapidly. We include an improved estimate of aquifer depletion (0.3 mm yr−1), partially offsetting the retention of water in dams and giving a total terrestrial storage contribution of −0.1 mm yr−1. Ocean warming (90% of the total of the Earths energy increase) continues through to the end of the record, in agreement with continued greenhouse gas forcing. The aerosol forcing, inferred as a residual in the atmospheric energy balance, is estimated as −0.8 ± 0.4 W m−2 for the 1980s and early 1990s. It increases in the late 1990s, as is required for consistency with little surface warming over the last decade. This increase is likely at least partially related to substantial increases in aerosol emissions from developing nations and moderate volcanic activity.

Changing Expendable Bathythermograph Fall Rates and Their Impact on Estimates of Thermosteric Sea Level Rise

Abstract A time-varying warm bias in the global XBT data archive is demonstrated to be largely due to changes in the fall rate of XBT probes likely associated with small manufacturing changes at the factory. Deep-reaching XBTs have a different fall rate history than shallow XBTs. Fall rates were fastest in the early 1970s, reached a minimum between 1975 and 1985, reached another maximum in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and have been declining since. Field XBT/CTD intercomparisons and a pseudoprofile technique based on satellite altimetry largely confirm this time history. A global correction is presented and applied to estimates of the thermosteric component of sea level rise. The XBT fall rate minimum from 1975 to 1985 appears as a 10-yr “warm period” in the global ocean in thermosteric sea level and heat content estimates using uncorrected data. Upon correction, the thermosteric sea level curve has reduced decadal variability and a larger, steadier long-term trend.

Ice-sheet mass balance and climate change

Since the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, new observations of ice-sheet mass balance and improved computer simulations of ice-sheet response to continuing climate change have been published. Whereas Greenland is losing ice mass at an increasing pace, current Antarctic ice loss is likely to be less than some recently published estimates. It remains unclear whether East Antarctica has been gaining or losing ice mass over the past 20 years, and uncertainties in ice-mass change for West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula remain large. We discuss the past six years of progress and examine the key problems that remain.

Pressure Sensor Drifts in Argo and Their Impacts

AbstractIn recent years, autonomous profiling floats have become the prime component of the in situ ocean observing system through the implementation of the Argo program. These data are now the dominant input to estimates of the evolution of the global ocean heat content and associated thermosteric sea level rise. The Autonomous Profiling Explorer (APEX) is the dominant type of Argo float (~62%), and a large portion of these floats report pressure measurements that are uncorrected for sensor drift, the size and source of which are described herein. The remaining Argo float types are designed to automatically self-correct for any pressure drift. Only about 57% of the APEX float profiles (or ~38% Argo profiles) can be corrected, but this typically has not been done by the data centers that distribute the data (as of January 2009). A pressure correction method for APEX floats is described and applied to the Argo dataset. A comparison between estimates using the corrected Argo dataset and the publically avail...

Sensitivity of Global Upper-Ocean Heat Content Estimates to Mapping Methods, XBT Bias Corrections, and Baseline Climatologies*

AbstractOcean warming accounts for the majority of the earth’s recent energy imbalance. Historic ocean heat content (OHC) changes are important for understanding changing climate. Calculations of OHC anomalies (OHCA) from in situ measurements provide estimates of these changes. Uncertainties in OHCA estimates arise from calculating global fields from temporally and spatially irregular data (mapping method), instrument bias corrections, and the definitions of a baseline climatology from which anomalies are calculated. To investigate sensitivity of OHCA estimates for the upper 700 m to these different factors, the same quality-controlled dataset is used by seven groups and comparisons are made. Two time periods (1970–2008 and 1993–2008) are examined. Uncertainty due to the mapping method is 16.5 ZJ for 1970–2008 and 17.1 ZJ for 1993–2008 (1 ZJ = 1 × 1021 J). Uncertainty due to instrument bias correction varied from 8.0 to 17.9 ZJ for 1970–2008 and from 10.9 to 22.4 ZJ for 1993–2008, depending on mapping met...

Salinity dominance on the Indian Ocean Eastern Gyral current

15 i S, opposite to the direction predicted by classical theories of wind-driven circulation and is a source of water for the Leeuwin Current. In the upper ocean, a strong salinity front exists between fresh water from the Indonesian Through- flow (ITF) in the South Equatorial Current (SEC) and salty subtropical waters. In that region, salinity overwhelms the temperature contribution to density gradients, generat- ing eastward geostrophic shear and establishing the EGC. Without the salinity front the EGC cannot be maintained: If the salinity contribution is neglected in the calculation of geostrophic currents, the EGC vanishes. Our observa- tional analysis associated with the fact that both Sverdrup and Ekman theories produce westward flows in the region strongly supports the idea that the EGC is a salinity-driven current. Citation: Menezes, V. V., H. E. Phillips, A. Schiller, C. M. Domingues, and N. L. Bindoff (2013), Salinity dominance on the Indian Ocean Eastern Gyral current, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 5716-5721, doi:10.1002/2013GL057887.

South Indian Countercurrent and associated fronts

A striking feature of the South Indian Ocean circulation is the presence of the eastward South Indian Countercurrent (SICC) that flows in a direction opposite to that predicted by the classical theories of wind-driven circulation. Several authors suggest that the SICC resembles the subtropical countercurrents (STCCs) observed in other oceans, which are defined as narrow eastward jets on the equatorward side of subtropical gyres, where the depth-integrated flow is westward. These jets are associated with subsurface thermal fronts at thermocline depths by the thermal wind relation. However, the subsurface thermal front associated with the SICC has not been described to date. Other studies conjecture an important role for salinity in controlling the SICC. In the present work, we analyze three Argo-based atlases and data from six hydrographic cruises to investigate whether the SICC is accompanied by permanent thermal and density fronts including salinity effects. The seasonal cycle of these fronts in relation to the SICC strength is also investigated. We find that the SICC is better described as composed of three distinct jets, which we name the northern, central, and southern SICC. We find that the southern SICC around 26°S has an associated thermal front at subsurface depths around 100–200 m with salinity being of secondary importance. The southern branch strength is related to mode waters poleward of the front, similar to a STCC-like current. However, the SICC multiple jet structure seems to be better described as resulting from PV staircases.

Sea-level and ocean heat-content change

Abstract The ocean has the largest heat capacity in the climate system and as a result the ocean plays a critical role in the climate. Changes in ocean heat content dominate the Earth’s energy storage; and the ocean’s thermal expansion has been a major contributor to sea-level rise in the twentieth century and likely to be the largest contributor in the twenty-first century. The agreement between changes in ocean heat storage over recent decades and changes in the Earth’s radiative balance, within uncertainties, provides strong support for current understanding of anthropogenic climate change. As a result of improvements in observations and modeling of sea level and components contributing to sea-level change, there is now an improved explanation for twentieth century sea-level rise. Models project a continuing sea-level rise during the twenty-first century and beyond. However, a number of uncertainties remain in our understanding of the global mean and regional distribution of sea-level rise resulting from changes in ocean circulation and changes in the Earth’s gravitational field. Ocean-ice-sheet interactions are important for quantitatively estimating future ice-sheet contributions to sea-level rise.