Charles F. Parker

Climate Change and the European Union's Leadership Moment: An Inconvenient Truth?

This article examines the nexus between the EUs goal of being a leading actor on the world stage in devising a global solution to the threat of climate change and the performance of its Member States in meeting their climate change obligations. In doing so the article will discuss the concept of EU leadership, examine the modes of leadership the EU has employed in pursuing its climate protection objectives, scrutinize the extent to which EU Member States are actually living up to their Kyoto obligations and analyse how the EUs own performance, credibility and legitimacy in this area affects its aspirations to be a key norm-entrepreneur in the establishment of a post-2012 climate change agreement. The article concludes with a balance sheet of some of the Unions key successes and failures and closes by highlighting some potentially inconvenient truths that might frustrate the EUs climate protection aspirations.

Looking for Leaders: Perceptions of Climate Change Leadership among Climate Change Negotiation Participants

There is widespread consensus that effective leadership will be required in order to successfully address the climate change challenge. Presently there are a number of self-proclaimed climate change leaders, but leadership is a relationship between leaders and followers. An actor aspiring to be a leader needs to be recognized as such. Despite its fundamental importance for leadership relationships, the demand side of the leadership equation has been comparatively neglected by past research. In this study we are looking for leaders by analyzing the perceptions of climate change leadership among UNFCCC COP-14 participants. Our results show that the climate change leadership mantle will have to be worn by more than one actor. Among the leadership candidates the EU was most widely recognized as a leader, however, only a small minority reported that they saw the EU as the only leader. The data also show that the US and the G77 thus far have failed to impress potential followers and it was China that clearly emerged as the second strongest leadership candidate.

Fragmented climate change leadership: making sense of the ambiguous outcome of COP-15

This article utilises a leadership perspective to analyse the ambiguous outcome of the 2009 UN climate summit in Copenhagen (COP-15). Considering follower perspectives and using survey data gives a fuller picture of the importance of leadership in international negotiations and of the role played by leadership the COP-15. In addition to the insights generated concerning the dynamics that led to the Copenhagen Accord, we contribute to the scholarship by illustrating the importance of an analytical framework that incorporates the demand and supply sides of leadership, the interplay of leadership visions and forms, and the fit between these elements. The implications for future UNFCCC climate negotiations are considered.

The Legitimacy of Leadership in International Climate Change Negotiations

Leadership is an essential ingredient in reaching international agreements and overcoming the collective action problems associated with responding to climate change. In this study, we aim at answering two questions that are crucial for understanding the legitimacy of leadership in international climate change negotiations. Based on the responses of three consecutive surveys distributed at COPs 14–16, we seek first to chart which actors are actually recognized as leaders by climate change negotiation participants. Second, we aim to explain what motivates COP participants to support different actors as leaders. Both these questions are indeed crucial for understanding the role, importance, and legitimacy of leadership in the international climate change regime. Our results show that the leadership landscape in this issue area is fragmented, with no one clear-cut leader, and strongly suggest that it is imperative for any actor seeking recognition as climate change leader to be perceived as being devoted to promoting the common good.

Complex Negative Events and the Diffusion of Crisis: Lessons from the 2010 and 2011 Icelandic Volcanic Ash Cloud Events

Abstract In a world characterized by complex interdependence, crises that originate in one country have the potential to rapidly diffuse across borders and have profound regional and even global impacts. The eruption of the Icelandic volcano yjafjallajökull in pril 2010 demonstrates how rapidly a natural disaster can morph from a local crisis with local effects to a cascading crisis with international effects across multiple sectors. After spreading to Europe the ash cloud severely disrupted air travel and paralyzed the European aviation transport system. This cascading crisis caught authorities by surprise and revealed the need to improve crisis preparedness to deal with the threat of volcanic ash in particular and aviation in general at the international, , and national levels. In the aftermath of the event, reforms and policy changes ensued. Just over a year later, the Icelandic volcano rímsvötn erupted, providing an opportunity to observe the revised system respond to a similar event. The origins, response, reforms, lessons learned, and questions of resilience connected to these complex negative events are the subject of this paper. The article concludes by addressing the question of whether and to what extent the vulnerabilities and problems exposed by the 2010 volcanic ash cloud event are amenable to reform.

Climate change leaders and followers: Leadership recognition and selection in the UNFCCC negotiations

Past research has posited that effective leadership is an essential ingredient in reaching international agreements and overcoming the collective action problems associated with responding to climate change. Despite its fundamental importance for leadership relationships, the demand side of the leadership equation has been comparatively neglected in the literature. In this study, we answer several related questions that are vital for understanding the leadership dynamics that impact the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations. Are there any leaders in the field of climate change and, if so, who are they? How do followers select climate leaders? What factors are important to them? Using unique survey data collected at four consecutive United Nations (UN) climate summits, Conference of Parties (COP) 14–17, this article investigates which actors are actually recognized as playing a leadership role in the UNFCCC negotiations and probes how followers select leadership candidates in this issue area. The survey findings reveal a fragmented leadership landscape, with no one clear-cut leader, and spotlight that if an actor seeks to be recognized as a leader, it is crucial to be perceived as being devoted to promoting the common good.

Assessing the European Union’s global climate change leadership: from Copenhagen to the Paris Agreement

Abstract This contribution examines the role European Union (EU) leadership played in the outcome of the 2015 COP21 climate summit in Paris. The EU’s attempts to realise its bid for climate change leadership are scrutinised by investigating to what extent the EU is actually recognised as a leader by potential followers and to what extent the EU has succeeded in achieving its negotiation objectives. To address these issues we utilize survey data collected at eight UN climate summits from 2008 to 2015 and evaluate the results of the climate negotiations particularly with respect to the Union’s goal attainment in Copenhagen and Paris. Our findings, which reveal a fragmented leadership landscape in which the EU must adjust its leadership strategies in relation to other powerful actors, such as the United States and China, provide insights into leadership theory and the EU’s prospects for exerting influence as an external actor on the world stage.

The Public Policy Dimension of Resilience in Natural Disaster Management : Sweden’s Gudrun and Per Storms

This chapter conducts an analysis of learning and policy change as a basis for building resilience to extreme events. Influenced by policy process theory and based on a comparative case-study of two storms in Sweden (Gudrun in 2005 and Per in 2007), the analysis poses three empirical questions: What policy beliefs changed as the result of storm Gudrun and did those changes result in any revision of policy programs? Did the observed changes positively impact the response to storm Per? And, what factors may shed light on the processes of policy change and implementation that took place in between these events? The concluding section discusses the importance of policy process analysis and the conditions related to institutionalizing experience as a basis for resilience.

The UN climate change negotiations and the role of the United States: assessing American leadership from Copenhagen to Paris

ABSTRACT The role of American leadership in the UN climate negotiations that produced the 2015 Paris Agreement is examined. First, United States (US) climate goals are identified. Then, utilizing unique survey data collected at eight UN climate summits between 2008 and 2015, the extent to which the US was recognized as a leader by potential followers is investigated. Finally, the extent to which US goals are reflected in negotiation outcomes is evaluated. Recognition of the US as a leader varied over time, peaking at the UN climate meetings in Copenhagen and Paris, reflecting US leadership in shaping the outcomes of both meetings. Although the results reveal a divided leadership landscape in which the US must compete for leadership with other actors, such as the European Union and China, US leadership was crucial to the successful adoption of the Paris Agreement.

Jørn Gjelstad and Olav Njølstad (eds) Nuclear Rivalry and International Order. London: Sage Publications for PRIO, Oslo, 1996, 212 pp.

Jorn Gjelstad and Olav Njolstad (eds) Nuclear Rivalry and International Order. London: Sage Publications for PRIO, Oslo, 1996, 212 pp.